Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[dkodgis]

Maybe the magnetic fields will flip, too.

[Guest]

Great job Mugsy

[amugs]

Thanks guys for the comments on my pamphlet post above. Interesting to see this chart just put out by NCEP.


Notice the red lines on the chart above - they are earlier forecasts that are higher in the chart, stronger nino period lasting much longer and being stronger as well as we hit December then falling/weaking.

The blue lines are the same forecast models but made in the last week - IF this is correct and only time will tell we seem to have peaked or there about November (hopefully earlier in the month and plausible at that!) which is earlier and not as strong as earlier shown.

Looks to be peaking around November but as Bill Goodman said sometimes the models lag what is actually happening at the surface. I have stated this before on here that IMHO I see a winter that start like this past winter in early to Mid Jan lasting until March. What I read this mornig was that the warmer waters are "going west" (young man) which could put us into what is called a Modoki Nino pattern:

Definition of what a Modoki EL Nino pattern is
An El Niño Modoki event is an anomalous condition of a distinctly different kind. The warmest SSTs occur in the central Pacific, flanked by colder waters to the east and west, and are associated with distinct patterns of atmospheric convection.
True EL Nino


Modoki


So what does this mean for us IF this is true?



IT could very well mean a cold and snowy winter!  The RED is a Modoki year and look at hose winters - cold and snowy! The analog years again are 2002-03, 2009-10 to look at for a somewhat comparison at this stage.

Snow extent comparisons between the years on Sept 10:
2015


2014


2013


Negligible at this time but this will be closely followed trough the upcoming fall because it is said to have an effect on the AO being positive and negative. Cohen has and is still doing research on this idea.

[sroc4]

Those snow cover anomalies become more important as we head into the second half of October. Unfort we are in a hurry up and wait mode and its killing me. At least its football season and all the October fest beers are coming out!!!

[sroc4]

Mugs, good post. Lots of good info in there. I have to do more research between the SAI and AO. I actually don't support the correlation as of now.

Even if the SST in the GOA cont to slowly erode we still may be ok.  Remember the -EPO leads to the alaskan ridge which leads to the strong cross polar flow.  BUT...the warm pool that is off the SW coast of Cali is not going anywhere (IMHO).  This may lead to a persistantly +PNA which may still do us just fine.  If we can get the NAO to cooperate some this year we should still be in business.  Its all speculation and what not with many other factors to consider, but the + PDO IS going to flip...if not this year then within the next one or two again IMHO.  

The PDO should keep our mean PNA postive. With the sub tropical jet roaring and an active MJO, I'm pretty confident in that. I'm more worried about there being cold air available though.

Agreed Frank. Since we are in a kind of a holding pattern right now I am going to try and find the time to research the winters with above normal siberian snow cover and the AO status vs snow fall amts relative to avg, and look at the relationships between the August into Sept pattern drivers and see if there are any linkage regarding what we can expect regarding the upcoming siberian snow cover anomalies.

[algae888]

although temperatures have fallen off they are still above normal and next week temperatures look to get into the mid and high 80's again which is well above normal. It's a little concerning to me where temperatures are right now and no signs that this pattern is changing anytime soon. The Atlantic Ridge looks to be a problem for us this year

[nutleyblizzard]

although temperatures have fallen off they are still above normal and next week temperatures look to get into the mid and high 80's again which is well above normal. It's a little concerning to me where temperatures are right now and no signs that this pattern is changing anytime soon. The Atlantic Ridge looks to be a problem for us this year

I wouldn't worry too much. With record setting -AO levels this past July, that bodes well for us this winter if you go by past history. I'd be more concerned with the Pacific to see where the best tropical forcing sets up. Too far east and we probably lose our source of cold air with the dreaded GOA low. We need the forcing to set up by the dateline to have a -EPO. As long as that happens, the Atlantic setup becomes less important.

[skinsfan1177]

I'll start worrying come December to early yet weather changes so fast.

[sroc4]

although temperatures have fallen off they are still above normal and next week temperatures look to get into the mid and high 80's again which is well above normal. It's a little concerning to me where temperatures are right now and no signs that this pattern is changing anytime soon. The Atlantic Ridge looks to be a problem for us this year

I wouldn't worry too much. With record setting -AO levels this past July, that bodes well for us this winter if you go by past history. I'd be more concerned with the Pacific to see where the best tropical forcing sets up. Too far east and we probably lose our source of cold air with the dreaded GOA low. We need the forcing to set up by the dateline to have a -EPO. As long as that happens, the Atlantic setup becomes less important.

Must keep in mind that the same drivers do different things to the pattern different times of the year. Not worried at all at this stage.

[sroc4]

Thanks guys for the comments on my pamphlet post above. Interesting to see this chart just put out by NCEP.


Notice the red lines on the chart above - they are earlier forecasts that are higher in the chart, stronger nino period lasting much longer and being stronger as well as we hit December then falling/weaking.

The blue lines are the same forecast models but made in the last week - IF this is correct and only time will tell we seem to have peaked or there about November (hopefully earlier in the month and plausible at that!) which is earlier and not as strong as earlier shown.

Looks to be peaking around November but as Bill Goodman said sometimes the models lag what is actually happening at the surface. I have stated this before on here that IMHO I see a winter that start like this past winter in early to Mid Jan lasting until March. What I read this mornig was that the warmer waters are "going west" (young man) which could put us into what is called a Modoki Nino pattern:

Just to expand a bit on this image that Mugsy posted on the 11th.  Similar to when we are tracking a winter storm, looking for trends within a model can help guide us in the direction a certain outcome is headed.    The images below represent the CFSv2 models SST anomaly predictions for Nino region3.4.  



To reiterate what Mugs posted above the Blue lines on the images are the most recent model runs and the red lines are the older ones and gray lines are older yet.  The thin solid black line was the actual observed value, and the dashed black line is the predicted value based on the avg of all the most recent runs(blue, red and gray lines).  Credit for this post goes to Joe Bastardi who posted these images on the Bell on the 11th.

First image was from July12th.  Notice the predicted peak is up at 3 standard deviations above normal.  Also take note at where the blue lines are located (most recent runs as of July 12th)...above the avg predicted.  
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Second image August 12th.  
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Third image was the most recent from Sept 11th(Never forget).
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So as you can see there is a clear shift/trend to a weaker, albeit still mod to strong values, event over the last 2 months peaking during the Oct, Nov, Dec (OND) time frame.  In theory better for the NE.  The predicted peak has trended weaker from 3 standard deviations to currently just under 2.5 with the most recent cluster of blue lines below the avg predicted value meaning we MAY cont to see the Nino event trend weaker over the next month or two.  

A few key points to remember:
1) This is only looking at one Nino region (3.4)  
2) This is only the trend of one model, not a reality.  There is time for things to trend differently
3) As a general rule if the current trend above were to in fact come to fruition it would increase the chances for less wet and more white in the NE; however, the status of the El Nino is only one of MANY   factors that will influence the overall pattern for this upcoming winter.

So in conclusion I am bored of this boring weather    and am looking for anything at this point to talk about.
PS...FOOTBALL SUNDAY!!!!!!  GO GGGGGMMMMMEEEEENNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

Great post sroc. But holy crap your gmen s%#t the bed. The coach should be fired. Didn't he watch the superbowl? Horrible clock management.

[sroc4]

Great post sroc.  But holy crap your gmen s%#t the bed.  The coach should be fired.  Didn't he watch the superbowl?  Horrible clock management.

Uggg dont get me started.   Im ok with the play call as long as your QB knows to take the sack instead of stop the clock by throwing it away.

[Frank_Wx]

After a short stretch of fall-like weather, we'll return to temps in the mid 80s tomorrow through the rest of the week. Some spots will approach 90 degrees but not quite sure they get there. Huge trough in the west will lead to higher than normal heights over the east.



And if the EURO has its way...we're not going to see below normal temps for awhile. Will remain average to above for the foreseeable future.

[Quietace]

After a short stretch of fall-like weather, we'll return to temps in the mid 80s tomorrow through the rest of the week. Some spots will approach 90 degrees but not quite sure they get there. Huge trough in the west will lead to higher than normal heights over the east.



And if the EURO has its way...we're not going to see below normal temps for awhile. Will remain average to above for the foreseeable future.

Wake Me Up When September Ends....

[Frank_Wx]

I know Ryan....boring.

[Frank_Wx]

We're in a stretch where a dome of High Pressure could keep us dry for the next 10 days. All the energy is cutting to our north and west. Weak front Sunday could send temps back to normal with a nice crisp air, but next week looks much like this week. Slightly above normal.

[algae888]

finally looks like  we will get some fall weather next week with highs around 70 monday thru wednesday.
nws disco...
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NORMAL...AND MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

[algae888]

vast high pressure over eastern Canada plus low off the s/e coast should bring a strong north east wind most of next week with a lot of clouds and maybe rain by wens.

[algae888]

looking at the last half of sept, after this Friday we can say goodbye to the 80's.

[sroc4]

looking at the last half of sept, after this Friday we can say goodbye to the 80's.

[amugs]

Good news that the sea ice extent has reached a minimum and now we are starting to see the buildup of ice in the arctic region.



Very Nice uptick in this region – like the comeback kid and as I posted in an earlier post that the series of LP systems in the region would help the ice build back. A good trend at this point.

Compare ice coverage - picking up





You can see the increase in small quantities but nevertheless it is increasing. The conditions are starting to become more favorable for snow and ice growth in the arctic region as we are steadily reaching Fall. I will do another comparison towards the end of the month.

[sroc4]

Good news that the sea ice extent has reached a minimum and now we are starting to see the buildup of ice in the arctic region.



Very Nice uptick in this region – like the comeback kid and as I posted in an earlier post that the series of LP systems in the region would help the ice build back. A good trend at this point.

Compare ice coverage - picking up





You can see the increase in small quantities but nevertheless it is increasing. The conditions are starting to become more favorable for snow and ice growth in the arctic region as we are steadily reaching Fall. I will do another comparison towards the end of the month.

Love these posts

[sroc4]

Good news that the sea ice extent has reached a minimum and now we are starting to see the buildup of ice in the arctic region.



Very Nice uptick in this region – like the comeback kid and as I posted in an earlier post that the series of LP systems in the region would help the ice build back. A good trend at this point.

Compare ice coverage - picking up





You can see the increase in small quantities but nevertheless it is increasing. The conditions are starting to become more favorable for snow and ice growth in the arctic region as we are steadily reaching Fall. I will do another comparison towards the end of the month.

Love these posts

[amugs]

West based NINO incoming - "Modoki"?? Jmastec, ukmet, euro all say so - CFS says no - it is blind squirrel trying to find its nut(s)!












Looking pretty good at this point - ALOT of TIME to go though but the westward expansion and movement of these spa like waters is good news for the incoming winter at this time.

[amugs]

Oh and look at the warm pool of water off the West Coast/BC stretching into the GOA - there is your -EPO

[amugs]

WSI has stated today on twitter that ENSO forcing has likely peaked.

[Frank_Wx]

Yes, I am noticing that a peak has occurred too.

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