Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

This is what I mean from the post I made above look at all the feedback with our trop forcing as depicted in these two maps, the GOA low or vortex of death is going to the light 140 to 155w allowing the heights to bulls on the WC and a trough to build on the EC and SE with some heights rising in pole area fir a neg ao too. Me like





CAN U SAY RELOAD??

[essexcountypete]

Thanks Frank and those who do not understand this map....

Oh yeah, that would be me. Thanks mugs for the details. I think I speak for a lot of newbies, lurkers and enthusiasts here when I say how much I appreciate the time you and others take here to break things down to the basics, not quite laymen's terms maybe, but just right in my eyes. I've learned a lot in the last couple months. Good stuff!

[rb924119]

It looks like my faith of seeing another good pattern is being restored. After some brief analysis, it looks like the LR ensembles do have support from the tropics, with respect to Nino and the MJO, as well as some from the Stratosphere. Convection looks to re-establish itself near the dateline while the MJO, which was originally progged to enter the warm phases with some magnitude, is now being held near Phase 3 and in a relatively muted state. Phase 3 is a cold phase for much of the U.S., including the East, and if it remains muted, allows other factors to easily override its influence. Whether this remains the case in future forecasts remains to be seen, but I like where it's all headed. Where I am getting a little concerned is the Stratosphere, as the EURO has an entirely different idea than what the GFS does, in that it doesn't split it at all through Day 10, and configures it so that we are actually sitting almost under a weak extension of the Stratospheric ridging. While that argues for no true -NAO blocking, we might get lucky with 50/50's or transients, like we recently saw. That said, we DO see the retrogression and consolidation of the Stratospheric ridge over British Columbia through Day 10, which if this is extrapolated supports a stout -EPO/+PNA couplet after Day 10 that should have some staying power. All in all, based on my brief analysis, I expect to see the return of the same type of pattern that we have had the past several years, with a great-looking west, and not-so-great and transient East, which still definitely delivered.

To add to this, it just occurred to me that the forecasts of the MJO are likely a direct result of the resurgence of convection near the Dateline, since the MJO is still close enough/near the Maritime Continent such that the descending branch of the ENSO circulation is killing off the MJO.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow at today's LR guidance. Winter will return with a vengeance

[Frank_Wx]

Euro weeklies

[weatherwatchermom]

Euro weeklies

is that 540 blue line the freezing line?

[sroc4]

The potential for cold and snowy pattern certainly exists. Should all get very interesting. Lets hope it all holds up and we can get the pices to come together. Going to have to get through the warmth first.

[frank 638]

not that i trust accuweather but they do have us snow cold ice in 2nd week of feb and lasting threw the month with few days of mild weather i know it will change but i think we would see couple days of feb with snow and cold will it be like last feb i say no

[frank 638]

joe cioffi has posted winter will resume late nextweek with stormy threats and shots of cold

[amugs]

Told Ya'll that we reload and go boom- like 78 and 58 and 03 and .......................... it coming and again ad nasuem:

TROP FORCING FTW

[Bkdude]

So don't put your booties away

[Bkdude]

Or boots!

[Guest]

Told Ya'll that we reload and go boom- like 78 and 58 and 03 and .......................... it coming and again ad nasuem:

TROP FORCING FTW

You are actually more optimistic than sroc4. I love the passion. The kids you coach must play hard for you.

[amugs]

This is what I have been waiting for this winter and the last two from Isotherm:

I agree. The D10-15 ensembles and weeklies from early Jan/late Dec missed the significant -NAO blocking episode completely from that lead time. I am fully expecting that the model data gradually trends more robust w/ the initiation / development of a -NAO as we approach the time. There are a number of indicators which are suggestive of its occurrence, which I will write a post on soon. I especially anticipate the -NAO to become more robust / deepen beyond February 8th-10th. However, needless to say, I'm glad to see that February is heading in the direction outlined pre-season outlook wise.

I SAID IT SOOOOO MANY TIMES AND BEEN POUNDING THE DRUM - GET READY FOR A GREAT STRETCH COMING UP!!!

@SYO - my teams would run through a frickin brick wall for me and I got every once out of them.

[aiannone]

Now i want some interior snows since im in Binghamton. We will constantly be at war now lmao

[Guest]

Now i want some interior snows since im in Binghamton. We will constantly be at war now lmao

Keep the faith. Binghamton averages almost 85 inches a year.

[rb924119]

I think we might have a storm threat during the period from the 7th-10th looking at the guidance...

[Snow88]

Mike Ventrice

Remember last February? A top 5 cold month for many states in the NE? Late Feb forecast pattern extremely similar.

[Snow88]

I think we might have a storm threat during the period from the 7th-10th looking at the guidance...

GFS shows a big coastal snowstorm on the 10th

[NjWeatherGuy]

I think the 2nd week of February things may heat up, GFS ensembles are interesting for so far out, of course its in crazy range to even consider but the pattern may be turning around then to a potential snowstorm on the EC.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=279536

[amugs]

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

[jmanley32]

I never want to hear anyone criticize me for discussing models at 288+ hrs lol, that storm looks epic verbatim, even better than this last one. I just do not want a storm on the 19th, I had to move my plans till then. Also V Day weekend I need to travel. Any other day bring it on.

[amugs]

James McCanny said that there was a big plasma discharge from the sun which aided the HECS we just had and we had a massive Planetary alignment by Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn are aligning for the first time in over a decade on Jan 23,24th with the Full Moon we went boom. So, when we have such we have huge storms. Sandy had the perigee of the earth, moon, venus and saturn lined up - when we are within 5 degrees of this perigee between these planets we get a big east coast if I recall correctly what I learned from Pro Met Jim Witt and my hs astronomy teacher whom I work with and teaches at FDU.

[amugs]

The big 5 are to be in alignment for most of Feb from the Nat Geo article I found online - this could be big and I mean real big!!!! Planetary alignment has a massive impact of us and our planet.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/160120-planet-parade-stargazing-astronomy/

[skinsfan1177]

The big 5 are to be in alignment for most of Feb from the Nat Geo article I found online - this could be big and I mean real big!!!! Planetary alignment has a massive impact of us and our planet.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/160120-planet-parade-stargazing-astronomy/

Amugs your knowledge is great and your attitude is always great as well. I'm on here more than any,other forum. I go on a few others and it seems they don't think much of febuary being that good. I here that's a cutter that's rain pattern doesn't look good and so on

[frank 638]

As Isotherm so eloquently (to this weenie) stated last night about the N NAO and when you look at today's run it is already more bullish on the Greenland / -NAO height rises. The models should continue to pick up on this with each run and I firmly believe will get colder as well with the -epo going to lock in do the GOA LP retrograding to sw of the Aleutians big time and a huge +pna.

Dates to watch +1/-1 for each in Feb/March as Mugs Stradamus looks into his snow globe weenie style for storms:
5th
8th
10-12th
14-17th PD tres
20-22nd
24-26th Snowicane deuce
3/2-4
3/7-10

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Mugstradamus?

We shall see, but I like it, I like it a lot. The name and the usual optimism.

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