April 2020 Observations and Discussion

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:This pattern looks to last until Mid May from the LR guidance since we do not have a LR thread anymore, Where was this again in winter??

https://twitter.com/i/status/1253702738833051648

Things just keep getting worse! Your telling me through Mid May we will be seeing night lows into 20s and 30s-40s during day!!! That is very abnormal.  I understand that it actually is not that far off on temps right now but mid may should be in 70s not Dec/jan weather!!!

I will take it as a blessing in disguise...if it were nice we would all like to leave the house!! and ps..what is normal about 2020??? hope everyone is well..

and guess what today was 61* sunny and beautiful and everyone was out as if nothing going on..people walking with no masks passing other people on the side walk and no distance ..kids playing in the neighborhood...ugggh this is not going to end...at least if you are not going to social distance wear a mask!!!...I was out to take the dog to the vet...they are really good..not allowed in they pick up the dog from your car and they bring a wipe to wipe down the handle after they are done... wearing a mask and gloves and you are wearing your mask...but roads were full of cars grocery store, lowes, all packed like a normal
Saturday...I went to get gas and people were going into quick check with no masks on..and were not thrown out...just sad..

If there is a positive side to this chilly, cloudy, damp trend, it is exactly what mom said: Imagine how miserable we'd be stuck inside if it was sunny and 70 degrees the last three weeks? As is, most of us would have been staying inside a lot anyway with these gloomy wet conditions outside.

Here it comes again mid week - Thursday:
From JD and WxBell



Mid May - look at this - a ridge over the west coast ane a trough over the east with a Negative EPO and a slight NAO block. BN temps to be expected with this pattern.


MJO showing this colder phase 3 - green line

A VA FUNGULLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!! WHERE THE HECK WAS THIS IN JAN OR FEB!!!
5-7* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

As usual of late, we get in March-May what we wanted in Dec-Feb. Hopefully we get these kinds of looks next winter.

amugs wrote:A VA FUNGULLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!! WHERE THE HECK WAS THIS IN JAN OR FEB!!!
5-7* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

Mother Nature is just mocking us now with ruining winter and spring.

35.6° light rain, some wet flakes.

If this pattern switched even a month earlier it could have been a memorable last two weeks of March. The last of 100 other reasons to make this winter season a top 3 stinker of all time.

amugs wrote:A VA FUNGULLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!! WHERE THE HECK WAS THIS IN JAN OR FEB!!!
5-7* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

LMAO Mugsy, I agree 100% in Italian with you.

The proverbial "a day late and a dollar short"!

AHH NUTS!!!! No winter now NO SPRING!!!!! Maybe 2nd half o May now - I curse you warm miser!

This MJO wave is not allowing any extended warmth in the pattern, a few days yes but nothing extended for us through mid May as it looks now.

Phase 3 then 4




These do not look warm at all for us.

FROST WARNING NNJ
MR. FROSTY COMING TO TOWN TONIGHT!! 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-280900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0003.200428T0700Z-200428T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the middle 30s will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
left uncovered.

Cross Arctic flow, wth ???? If this were winter this be a deep freeze, with snow potential.

We had a beautiful day Saturday, got out to the park for a walk. I was surprised how crowded it was. But everyone was wearing a mask for the most part. We just stayed well out of any ones way. It is not irresponsible to get fresh air and exerices shoot if we don't we will all be signing up for my 600 lb life.

ARGGHHHHH For the beginning of May after this beautiful weekend coming up:

I observe April, the entire month, has been cool like I was camping on an iceberg. Of course us old folks do feel colder with age.

Well there you go

sroc4 wrote:

Well, that worked out just peachy keen! Would have been nice in February or March

Looks like mucho rain tomorrow evening into Fri morning.

dkodgis wrote:Looks like mucho rain tomorrow evening into Fri morning.

WOW

RGEM - those are some good t-storms lining up - Severe risk is there

Heavy rain now the worst is yet to come tonight

Looking at current radar we are in for a soaker this evening. Solid area of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms from Buffalo NY down to Wilmington NC. It is moving slowly and the cells within the line are moving south to north training over the same areas as the line creeps east. Once it gets here late this afternoon I expect we’ll see several hours of downpours with gusty winds and thunder mixed in for fun. Hope the sump pumps and downspouts are ready to work overtime!

Latest regional radar courtesy of Accuweather:

Oy, this is terrible, first HWW are now up for parts of jersey gusts 50-60mph rest a advisory 45mph and into southern NY.  My daughter is having a drive by birthday party at 5:30 with her friends coming and police.  Is there any way this line might hold off until 5:30-6ish? Or are we gonna get soaked?  I just don't want her gifts to get ruined nor standing outside to be miserable. Right now its not too bad but that line is nuts, I see 2-3 is my guess locally higher under training and possible power outages with the stronger winds and saturated ground.

amugs wrote:RGEM - those are some good t-storms lining up  - Severe risk is there

Mugs your imagines for somereason do not appear for me at least. Anyone else having that issue?

JMan, I unfortunately think it will be very close to starting at that time. It’s going to be a close-call though. That is right when it’s supposed to roll in so there is a chance to just miss it if it holds off until 6:30 or so.