2021 Tropical Season

Wake up, Forum Friends. Late night models are coming in Henri-hot…

frank 638 wrote:Tropical storm watches winner for Long Island and parts of west Chester along with storm Searge watch

no LI on east is a hurricane watch all models are now taking a LI hit even sone far western LI into NYC like HMON fwiw, NYC and s westchester have a TS watch, but like rb said I think we do see at least some shift west still, all models show a high end cat 1 or 2 slamming the area, even NYC is now in 50% chance TS winds like higher. This looks like it well may be one of rb biggest coups.

Ominous 6z Nam run early this morning. Henri landfall strikes central LI then moves NW into NYC. Huge 12z runs today. If the west trends continue today I would expect the NHC put up Hurricane watches in parts of our area.

SoulSingMG wrote:Wake up, Forum Friends. Late night models are coming in Henri-hot…

Oh ya, any more movement west which rb saiys could still happen and as he said entire board pretty much gets slammed. anyone on the NE side is going to be in the worst of it but being he looks to be well formed and larger wind field and rain will likely be symmetrical. Gonna be one wild weekend if this happens, one we wont forget as forecasted atm.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Ominous 6z Nam run early this morning. Henri landfall strikes central LI then moves NW into NYC. Huge 12z runs today. If the west trends continue today I would expect the NHC put up Hurricane watches in parts of our area.

They are already up for all of LI coastal CT on west and TS watch for NYC area.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Ominous 6z Nam run early this morning. Henri landfall strikes central LI then moves NW into NYC. Huge 12z runs today. If the west trends continue today I would expect the NHC put up Hurricane watches in parts of our area.

Was just going to mention the 6z NAM. The weakening was the only good thing. Big NW turn on the NAM

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Ominous 6z Nam run early this morning. Henri landfall strikes central LI then moves NW into NYC. Huge 12z runs today. If the west trends continue today I would expect the NHC put up Hurricane watches in parts of our area.

They are already up for all of LI coastal CT on west and TS watch for NYC area.

Yep I just noticed when I posted. I was thinking the NHC would of waited for the 12Z suite came out before pulling the trigger. RB mentioned last night that the upper levels are inducing continued westward adjustments. With this setup I would not at all be surprised if NYC/ North Jersey coast lines are included in the Hurricane Watch later today.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Ominous 6z Nam run early this morning. Henri landfall strikes central LI then moves NW into NYC. Huge 12z runs today. If the west trends continue today I would expect the NHC put up Hurricane watches in parts of our area.

They are already up for all of LI coastal CT on west and TS watch for NYC area.

Yep I just noticed when I posted. I was thinking the NHC would of waited for the 12Z suite came out before pulling the trigger. RB mentioned last night that the upper levels are inducing continued westward adjustments. With this setup I would not at all be surprised if NYC/ North Jersey coast lines are included in the Hurricane Watch later today.

I think most of coastal NJ to LI will be in the cane watch, a bigger shift west may actually take cape cod out of the watch, wouldnt that be ironic being they were from the beginning the ones forecasted to maybe see a close call.

Clearly the input of the recon data helped, now we have to watch intensity, remember stronger storm means further NW trend. which since they see the NW trend that they expect him to be stronger, right now prog is a cat 1 but i could bee him overperforming, just how fast he crosses our colder waters will determine if he makes landfall as a stronger cane or if he may even drop to high end TS which would of course board better but still not good.

3km nam dont pay attention to the intensity i highly highly doubt a major hurricane heads in though 1938 was a cat 3. This looks identical and just about as bad as it can get with chances for more adjustment west and it would not take much to put NYC and more of tristate in the crosshairs. Not go be get much sleep tracking this weekend ha

6z GFS ticked west by 25 miles.

Morning folks. I Am concerned.

With recon data input involving the atmosphere all around Henri the tack solns are converging and it’s way too close for comfort. Obv there still is some uncertainty but that uncertainty has decreased. My idea of no direct impacts is dwindling rapidly; esp for the eastern half of our coverage area. Stay tuned

6z GEFS have come a bit west of 0z. Decent amount of west members

According to NWS outer impacts could start to be felt eas early as late tomorrow night more likely sunday morning and sunday night landfall, not a skyrocketing storm so his impacts are go be long duration looks bout maybe 12 hrs or so, no good especially for heavily treed areas. He must have to speed up quite a bit though from 9mph to make it here in 48-60 hrs or so.

6z HMON holds serve from 0z, landfall west-central Long Island

Sanchize06 wrote:6z HMON holds serve from 0z, landfall west-central Long Island

that looks super bad for NYC area heavy rain and probably high end ts maybe even hurricane winds we will have see how big Winfield gets. I've read it will expand a lot not sure if it is intensity or what that would do that.

Really Nice discussion out of the NWS Hurricane center out of Miami:

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north
side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt
of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt
based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt,
but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been
expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central
Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri
accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the
weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the
mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New
England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to
the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching
the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast
has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other
consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject
northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada.

The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening
later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to
less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be
traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses
the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is
anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a
hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower
motion over the colder water south of New England should induce
quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from
reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated
after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection
could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that
time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but
for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity.

Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be
approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours.
Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and
intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and
hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island,
Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts
will extend far from the center.

6z HWRF not as far west as HMON, but getting closer. 3rd run in a row with a west adjustment

Sanchize06 wrote:6z HWRF not as far west as HMON, but getting closer. 3rd run in a row with a west adjustment

rgem holy jeeze is similar to hmon, hits LI then swings pretty much west into NYC then does a incredibly slow tight loop over NYC before heading east again giving the area a double hit wow, this is getting interesting quick. I am sure once that north turn happens which is soon per NHC the track will adjust and as more data from recons come in. I am sure havent checked that the NHC is not taking this lightly and probably doing some crazy recon work.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:6z HWRF not as far west as HMON, but getting closer. 3rd run in a row with a west adjustment

rgem holy jeeze is similar to hmon, hits LI then swings pretty much west into NYC then does a incredibly slow tight loop over NYC before heading east again giving the area a double hit wow, this is getting interesting quick. I am sure once that north turn happens which is soon per NHC the track will adjust and as more data from recons come in. I am sure havent checked that the NHC is not taking this lightly and probably doing some crazy recon work.

NAM also in the RGEM, HMON camp as well. Huge 12z runs today

Good point! I notice the NWS is calling for low rain totals Sat evening into Sunday. Something like 3/4 of an inch for Sun. That seems so low. Let’s see the 12z run

Been a while since I checked in here. Can somebody please steer this thing away from Montauk ?