2021 Tropical Season

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.

and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.

and in simpleton your still on with your 70 to 80% for area of landfall was the pt in that discussion with all the other stuff I kinda got the jist of. Do you see the cone potentially changing west again? Or is the east movement real?

billg315 wrote:rb, speak my name and I appear. Lol. Have had a bit of a hectic week (busy at work, had a piece of skin shaved off my back for testing - no worries here, doctor says likely nothing) so haven’t been on this as much as usual (and as people on here may know I have an anti-tropical bias anyway, lol) but I have been following along when I can.
My quick thoughts:
I’m not thinking the disorganization at the moment is a huge deal, as it is just now heading into the area where I think intensification/reorganization is most likely. However it does tell me there is a cap on how strong this can get before landfall. I think a weak Cat 1 is likely.
I think the Euro/GFS are too far east, but they’re not the best models to look at for this. Meanwhile the NAM and HRRR are similar and probably the better guides atm. My guess is this makes landfall in central LI and then moves into the HV region before sweeping away to NE. I think it ends up being more a rain event but central and eastern LI get some surge (especially with full moon) and wind damage.
Finally: Two weeks to college football and Pumpkin spice. :-)

Glad to hear all is well, my friend!! And nice post to return with! Haha

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.

and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.

and in simpleton your still on with your 70 to 80% for area of landfall was the pt in that discussion with all the other stuff I kinda got the jist of. Do you see the cone potentially changing west again? Or is the east movement real?

As of now, yes. As for the cone, probably not. They’re following the models like they always do. I know Soul posted an opposing viewpoint earlier, but in my opinion and observation they don’t seem to stray from guidance…..like, ever lol so even if we see the models come west at the 11th hour, I don’t think they’d make a change; or at least a significant one. Just one man’s opinion, though lol

My hometown in CT hurricane warning calling for winds gusting to 70mph for a window of 24 hrs yikes!

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.

and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.

and in simpleton your still on with your 70 to 80% for area of landfall was the pt in that discussion with all the other stuff I kinda got the jist of. Do you see the cone potentially changing west again? Or is the east movement real?

As of now, yes. As for the cone, probably not. They’re following the models like they always do. I know Soul posted an opposing viewpoint earlier, but in my opinion and observation they don’t seem to stray from guidance…..like, ever lol so even if we see the models come west at the 11th hour, I don’t think they’d make a change; or at least a significant one. Just one man’s opinion, though lol

they are a stubborn bunch huh, my reasoning was that now that the area is out of the cone they could drop the TS warnings which would not be good if it ended up coming west.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.

and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.

and in simpleton your still on with your 70 to 80% for area of landfall was the pt in that discussion with all the other stuff I kinda got the jist of. Do you see the cone potentially changing west again? Or is the east movement real?

As of now, yes. As for the cone, probably not. They’re following the models like they always do. I know Soul posted an opposing viewpoint earlier, but in my opinion and observation they don’t seem to stray from guidance…..like,
ever lol so even if we see the models come west at the 11th hour, I don’t think they’d make a change; or at least a significant one. Just one man’s opinion, though lol

Is this the kind of convection you are looking for NW of Henry?

I have this nagging feeling this won’t be rectified until tomorrow morning.

nutleyblizzard wrote:I have this nagging feeling this won’t be rectified until tomorrow morning.

Yup and he will be on the doorstep and outer bands would have already reached the area, maybe even as early as tonight,. nail biting crap lol

This is something to remember in terms of impacts for NYC metro/NJ. There’s a LOT of water ahead of Henri and if it works into the area later today as forecast below, it’ll only prime and exacerbate flooding tomorrow—especially with how saturated our region already is…

A lot of people are starting to call this thing a dud. I stand by RB atm. Please let us know if your thinking changes.

Zhukov1945 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.

and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.

and in simpleton your still on with your 70 to 80% for area of landfall was the pt in that discussion with all the other stuff I kinda got the jist of. Do you see the cone potentially changing west again? Or is the east movement real?

As of now, yes. As for the cone, probably not. They’re following the models like they always do. I know Soul posted an opposing viewpoint earlier, but in my opinion and observation they don’t seem to stray from guidance…..like,
ever lol so even if we see the models come west at the 11th hour, I don’t think they’d make a change; or at least a significant one. Just one man’s opinion, though lol

Is this the kind of convection you are looking for NW of Henry?

The area outlined by the blue circle is where I’m mainly focused right now and into this afternoon.

I also find it highly intriguing that no model has that persistent blob of convection on the northern fringe modeled at all except the HRRR (as much as I hate to admit it lol). I’d imagine that’s having at least small impact on feeding the top portion of the ridge a bit more, which would aid in a better turn. But that’s purely conjecture on my part. How large of a shift in track that could cause, I wouldn’t be able to tell you. But it’s something to keep in mind as a potential hiccup for modeling.

rb924119 wrote:I also find it highly intriguing that no model has that persistent blob of convection on the northern fringe  modeled at all except the HRRR (as much as I hate to admit it lol). I’d imagine that’s having at least small impact on feeding the top portion of the ridge a bit more, which would aid in a better turn. But that’s purely conjecture on my part. How large of a shift in track that could cause, I wouldn’t be able to tell you. But it’s something to keep in mind as a potential hiccup for modeling.

thanks for the update RB..all ready here by the hook..will check in later for your update..Have fun tracking.

I was hoping to see a nice looking cane instead we have this mess of a thing. I know there's a well defined LLC rb do you think we see it get symmetrical or does it move in as is? Highway signs here warning of ts avoid travel Sunday.

jmanley32 wrote:I was hoping to see a nice looking cane instead we have this mess of a thing. I know there's a well defined LLC rb do you think we see it get symmetrical or does it move in as is? Highway signs here warning of ts avoid travel Sunday.

I won’t lie, I kind of was too, Jman. Emphasis on “kind of” lol with respect to symmetry, I don’t think we see a classic annular look to this at any point (aside from the low-level circulation). However, we may see more of a symmetrical “S” shape develop with respect to the higher/colder cloud tops and precipitation.

What side (East/west) of landfall is more favorable for tornadoes?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I was hoping to see a nice looking cane instead we have this mess of a thing. I know there's a well defined LLC rb do you think we see it get symmetrical or does it move in as is? Highway signs here warning of ts avoid travel Sunday.

I won’t lie, I kind of was too, Jman. Emphasis on “kind of” lol with respect to symmetry, I don’t think we see a classic annular look to this at any point (aside from the low-level circulation). However, we may see more of a symmetrical “S” shape develop with respect to the higher/colder cloud tops and precipitation.

well I'm hoping we can see some interesting wx if it's just a soaking rain is rather it stay dry so I can hit my usual Sunday flea market. Not looking to wish damage but a little more than dreary rain. If wasn't working I'd prolly go stay my patents house in CT. I could do that but it have drive back tomorrow night and I imagine that would be a bad idea. This is central coastal CT away from the water btw. However if your track is right it'll get pretty wild here and we would likely see near hurricane gusts.

dsix85 wrote:What side (East/west) of landfall is more favorable for tornadoes?

all of the warnings say tornadoes are unlikely which is unusual.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/151351.shtml?#contents

I just checked out Henri on visible satellite. Starting to get that look we’ve been looking for.

amugs wrote:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/151351.shtml?#contents

Thank you mugs for sharing that
From the way I look at it not going to be a nice day tom..if it were snow I would be disappointed..but water and wind and surge good riddance move out to sea..we had fun tracking you and loved reading a good clean debate!! Love civility, opinions, and discussion without nastiness so refreshing...but Henri we don't want or need you in our lives right now...

dsix85 wrote:What side (East/west) of landfall is more favorable for tornadoes?

East

Remarkable how messy the Euro ensembles still are...

Zhukov1945 wrote:
Remarkable how messy the Euro ensembles still are...

that's rediculous for 24 hrs out or less.

Timing is everything folks.  Take a look at the big picture.  I mentioned yesterday about where is the LW trough compared to the ULL and compared to Henri.  The LWT is interacting with the ULL and everntually will begin to erode the ridge that is currently building to the north and NE of Henri as we head on into the overnight and into Sunday.  The entire mean flow is from west to east.  How quickly the Eastern flank of the mean trough, (I use "mean" trough and "Long Wave" trough interchangeably), can move into the aea N of the great lakes(yellow arrow) will determine when the ridging begins to erode.  Where Henri is and how much of the NW flank of the ridge erodes, and the timing of it all will determine if we end up seeing the last min shift to the east where landfall is eastern LI or even as ffar east as Block or Rhode Island.  We shall see.  I personally based of curent observation and modeling aloft am taking out NYC and Queens landfall, although it doesnt mean it cant or wont still happen.  Here is the link to the WV loop.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv-mid

And Id like to point out that no where in any official NHC forecasts discussions have the even hinted at the idea that any phasing with the ULL will contribute to its intensity forecast,but rather the lower shear and SST being thee main factors.  The ULL, combined with the building ridge to the N&NE of henri, remains the important element in steering elements.  

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very
valuable data.  The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level
wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength,
but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data
and somewhat lower SFMR winds.  In addition, aircraft data indicate
that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb.  The NOAA tail
Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more
vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be
forming.  In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV
aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind
radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the
southeastern quadrant.  NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern
quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas.

Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt.  The
steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri.  This pattern should cause the
storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed
by a slight bend to the left on Sunday.  The latest run of the GFS
has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on
landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on
Sunday.  However, users are reminded to not focus on the center
itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially
to the east.  The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain
strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence
associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs.  In fact,
the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb
or more during that time period.  By early Sunday, Henri is
predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should
cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over
the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected.  Henri is
forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

12z Euro is a bit west of previous run with a noticeably larger wind field. I think Henri phases with the trough more than most models are depicting right now.