2021 Tropical Season

looks like a solid 4-6 with localized areas far exceeding, hoping for the lower end.

Hi Res NAM has an absolute deluge for most of NJ (all the models do of course, but this one really stuck out).

A major flood event is looking more & more likely across our area as models overnight have, for the most part, honed in on placing the axis of heaviest rain over NYC metro. With antecedent moisture conditions thru the roof, there is nowhere for 6+ inches of rain (in ~24 hrs) to go but to run off into already swollen streams & rivers. Not a good situation at all.

I hope the models are too aggressive right now and we end up with more of a 2-4 inch rainfall which while still bad might be more manageable but I think we are in for a deluge and the flooding can be serious

the 12z 3k nam seems to keep the heaviest totals in the north central portions of PA and into the very NW tip of NJ and then drops off to 4-6 inches (never thought I would say that in regards to rain) in the northern and central portions of NJ with lighter amounts to the south

One thing’s for sure: Wherever that narrow band of the heaviest rain sets up, amounts are going to be insane in general, let alone for such a short period. Here’s the latest idea from the 12z RGEM…

SoulSingMG wrote:One thing’s for sure: Wherever that narrow band of the heaviest rain sets up, amounts are going to be insane in general, let alone for such a short period. Here’s the latest idea from the 12z RGEM…

wow thats one heck of a cut-off from 4-5 to 7-10, the 3km nam radar run is absolutely insane in the reflectivity being at the highest point on the chart, i think we do see wind with convective areas especially with embedded t-storms. 3km nam even hinted at a line of storms coming through on the tail end.

The 3k's placement was not at all in line with the rgem and had the heaviest rainfall well north and west. With that said it still had a very most of north and central nj in the 4-6 inch range which is far more than we need

phil155 wrote:The 3k's placement was not at all in line with the rgem and had the heaviest rainfall well north and west. With that said it still had a very most of north and central nj in the 4-6 inch range which is far more than we need

none of the models have the placement in the same place, I this will be a nowcast in terms of the heaviest axis of rain but a general 4-6 is likely. If you look above the potential is there for 10-16 which is insane. And if those winds on the Euro even verify 10mph slower we will have major issues. As if the rain wasn't enough.

Definite northward trend at 12z so far. Canadian models are the farthest south but have been correcting north as well. I still don't know why my avatar is so damn big.

hyde345 wrote:



















Definite northward trend at 12z so far. Canadian models are the farthest south but have been correcting north as well. I still don't know why my avatar is so damn big.

LOL, yeah it is weird, I think the CMC is OTL but RGEM seems okay, just saw news 7 has swatch of 7-9 inches from a diagonal from jersey into NYC and southern westchester into CT. Yikes!  Rest of the area 4-6.

POWER COULD BE OUT FOR A MONTH???????
these poor people

It's a narrow band with front genesis like in winter and where this sets ups whi hbthe models always struggle with will be the Winner of the Ida lottery of who gets a SECS event possible a MECS.

Also SPC has now put the entire area in some sort of severe weather risk from enhanced to slight to marginal, you can clearly see what alex posted above that there is going to be some serious convective features with this and the threat for tornados has now developed, would not be surprised to see watches posted tomorrow.

aiannone wrote:

thats gotta be the most insanely intense rain i have seen on that model in a long time, as i posted theres also now a severe wx threat including tornadoes. Go be a wild day tomorrow-thurs.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

thats gotta be the most insanely intense rain i have seen on that model in  a long time, as i posted theres also now a severe wx threat including tornadoes. Go be a wild day tomorrow-thurs.

That’s insane I hope Some of the models are wrong we had too much rain most of our rivers cannot handle this much water

amugs wrote:It's a narrow band with front genesis like in winter and where this sets ups whi hbthe models always struggle with will be the Winner of the Ida lottery of who gets a SECS event possible a MECS.

sounds like winter talk lol, any updated wind maps from Euro? I think rb may be right that it is asuming there is a lot of mixing down to the ground from the convection which per spc now seems possible if not probably, i dont know how widespread it will be but no wind headlines at this time.

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

thats gotta be the most insanely intense rain i have seen on that model in  a long time, as i posted theres also now a severe wx threat including tornadoes. Go be a wild day tomorrow-thurs.

That’s insane I hope Some of the models are wrong we had too much rain most of our rivers cannot handle this much water

working from homw tomorrow, wish it was thursday instead...morning commute will be a nightmare if this verifies.

SPC discussion, looks like could see quite a bit of svr wx and tornadoes.

...Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
Tropical cyclone Ida will move northeastward from the central
Appalachians across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, eventually
reaching near the southern New England Coast late Wednesday night. A
very moist low-level airmass, with low to mid 70s surface dewpoints,
will likely exist ahead of Ida across much of the Mid-Atlantic to
the south of a surface boundary. This boundary is forecast to lift
northward as a warm front through the day across MD/DE and into
parts of southeastern PA and southern/central NJ. Compared to prior
days, better diurnal heating should occur across the warm sector as
Ida begins to transition to an extra-tropical cyclone. Some guidance
suggests the potential for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop ahead
of any ongoing rain bands Wednesday morning as surface temperatures
warm into the upper 70s and 80s.

The strongest mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear
associated with Ida's remnant circulation are forecast to be present
across mainly the northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic, from
roughly northern VA and MD/DE northward. A broader swath of strong
southerly low-level winds should be in place from portions of the
central/eastern Carolinas across the Mid-Atlantic. Related
enhancement to 0-1 km shear will likely focus from parts of
central/northern VA northward to the vicinity of the warm front
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Current expectations are for multiple
supercells to develop Wednesday afternoon in this favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment while posing a threat for
several tornadoes. This threat appears greatest in the vicinity of
the warm front Wednesday afternoon/evening, and tornado
probabilities have been increased to account for this potential.

Farther south across central/southern VA into the Carolinas,
low-level shear is forecast to quickly drop off during the day.
Still, multiple clusters of storms that should develop may pose a
threat for damaging winds through much of the afternoon, as
mid-level flow will remain modestly enhanced. Finally, low
probabilities for strong/gusty winds and a tornado or two have been
expanded northward into southern New England. A very strong
low-level jet across this region Wednesday night and weak
boundary-layer instability may support an isolated severe threat as
storms move quickly east-northeastward through the end of the
period.

What’s the timing on the worst of it? Looking for timing for Northern NJ (Morris, Passaic, and Hudson)

Aiannone's graphic has me just 20 miles away from being kissed with 13 inches of rain. New roof, new curtain drains. Good those.

That is quite the wallop of rain. CPCantmeasurerain-where are you?

In middlesex county and just got a new roof and gutters less than a month ago this will be a real test

the 12k and 3k NAM both seem to be a bit NW with the heaviest of the rainfall totals