November 2024 Observations & Discussions

Two acres are burning down the road from me. So many firefighters already fighting the brushfires elsewhere here in Orange county and right at the NJ boarder. Until we get some rain, it's a tinderbox. Bill, I read your post about the rain coming. Great!

As an aside, I was I think going into 7th grade...1966...a hot summer...and hearing the news that the Alabama governor, George Wallace was asking people to pray to a higher power for rain. I remember that surprised me at 12 years old to hear that on the radio. It seemed like an end-of-the-world thing. Doc was probably shifting his three-on-the-tree car/van and listening to Sha Na Na (I was out on the back roads).

dkodgis wrote:Two acres are burning down the road from me. So many firefighters already fighting the brushfires elsewhere here in Orange county and right at the NJ boarder. Until we get some rain, it's a tinderbox. Bill, I read your post about the rain coming. Great!

As an aside, I was I think going into 7th grade...1966...a hot summer...and hearing the news that the Alabama governor, George Wallace was asking people to pray to a higher power for rain. I remember that surprised me at 12 years old to hear that on the radio.  It seemed like an end-of-the-world thing.  Doc was probably shifting his three-on-the-tree car/van and listening to Sha Na Na (I was out on the back roads).

Damian, getting alerts on my cell fires down near Greenwood Lake NY-NJ border voluntary evacuations.Your right, the woods have a carpet of dried leaves, it's a tinderbox alright.
Got my license Feb 1968 and drove a three on the tree Ford van delivering flowers part time in High School.Nothing like the smell of burning asbestos holding the van on a hill for a red light,lol.

48 degrees, clear, windy.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.

Where did you get that worst in 160 year stat from?  And what location are you referring too?  NYC or NY or NE or CONUS?  

Many news outlets. The 160 years is for the NYC area, I think specifically NYC. Sorry yeah no not CONUS. Sw your post about not letting the news hype, but that would then just be a flat out lie? They have to have gotten that from somewhere. On the scare currently we are in the severe color with the NWS or whoever covers drought conditions. Lots of fires is the biggest issue but NYC saying they will be issuing a warning which would put some restrictions on water and they are considering opening one reservoir that is being worked on to be able to bring more water down state. I saw a article that stated the reservoir upstate (one of them) is at 1/3rd capacity, that seems pretty bad to me.

Jon I don't want to get political in here; certainly not in the Obv thread, but those same media outlets have outright lied about countless number of things over the past half decade or more. The main stream media are masters for taking a small truth about a very complex nuanced problem and spinning it, molding it, framing it in ways that fit the narrative. For something like this "worst drought in 160 years". How would one say that without outright lying about it? I mean just look a the map I posted from1966. Clearly that is a worse year in this area regarding rainfall amounts. So perhaps it has to do with the water levels in the reservoir. Maybe the reservoir levels are worse this year compared to 1966 even though the rain levels are not. And perhaps the reason for this is because the population density has steadily increased leading to a steady demand for water; thus the lowest levels in 160 yrs, or perhaps the way he geography has changed since then due to urban expansion has changed the way the run off was prev collected. Or perhaps when they say worst in 160 years they meant for November, but in reality for other months there have been worse. Again All of these things are likely nuanced parts of that statement but only " the worst drought in 160 years" gets highlighted and propagated, but again....what does that really mean when there have clearly been worse droughts not only in this area, but in other areas as well as the CONUS as a whole? And thats only dating back to th late 1800's. Whats about the last 200years, or 1000 yr or 10,000 ears. m not debating whether these narratives are nefarious or not as highlighted in the maps I posted above. Perhaps they are simply click bait/headline grabbers for attention and viewership, and not a conspiracy to push a specific agenda, but the fact remains that those mains stream media outlets should no loner be trusted to give you anything other than their slanted narrow views on any given topic , and I say this regarding ALL the mainstream stream media outlets.

We have to stop looking towards these traditional outlets as a "trusted" source of information about the world we in, because unless you have continued to live with a head in the sand, the narrow framing of very complex nuanced topics is all you will get.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.

Where did you get that worst in 160 year stat from?  And what location are you referring too?  NYC or NY or NE or CONUS?  

Many news outlets. The 160 years is for the NYC area, I think specifically NYC. Sorry yeah no not CONUS. Sw your post about not letting the news hype, but that would then just be a flat out lie? They have to have gotten that from somewhere. On the scare currently we are in the severe color with the NWS or whoever covers drought conditions. Lots of fires is the biggest issue but NYC saying they will be issuing a warning which would put some restrictions on water and they are considering opening one reservoir that is being worked on to be able to bring more water down state. I saw a article that stated the reservoir upstate (one of them) is at 1/3rd capacity, that seems pretty bad to me.

Jon I don't want to get political in here; certainly not in the Obv thread, but those same media outlets have outright lied about countless number of things over the past half decade or more.  The main stream media are masters for taking a small truth about a very complex nuanced problem and spinning it, molding it, framing it in ways that fit the narrative.   For something like this "worst drought in 160 years".  How would one say that without outright lying about it?  I mean just look a the map I posted from1966.  Clearly that is a worse year in this area regarding rainfall amounts.  So perhaps it has to do with the water levels in the reservoir.  Maybe the reservoir levels are worse this year compared to 1966 even though the rain levels are not.  And perhaps the reason for this is because the population density has steadily increased leading to a steady demand for water; thus the lowest levels in 160 yrs, or perhaps the way he geography has changed since then due to urban expansion has changed the way the run off was prev collected.  Or perhaps when they say worst in 160 years they meant for November, but in reality for other months there have been worse.  Again All of these things are likely nuanced parts of that statement but only " the worst drought in 160 years" gets highlighted and propagated, but again....what does that really mean when there have clearly been worse droughts not only in this area, but in other areas as well as the CONUS as a whole?  And thats only dating back to th late 1800's.  Whats about the last 200years, or 1000 yr or 10,000 ears.  m not debating whether these narratives are nefarious or not as highlighted in the maps I posted above.  Perhaps they are simply click bait/headline grabbers for attention and viewership, and not a conspiracy to push a specific agenda, but the fact remains that those mains stream media outlets should no loner be trusted to give you anything other than their slanted narrow views on any given topic , and I say this regarding ALL the mainstream stream media outlets.    

We have to stop looking towards these traditional outlets as a "trusted" source of information about the world we in, because unless you have continued to live with a head in the sand, the narrow framing of very complex nuanced topics is all you will get.        

Not quite 100 years ago, this long term draught resulted in catastrophic economic conditions for farmers in the West already impacted by the Great Depression. A ten year draught no less.Over 2 million people migrated out of the affected areas.


https://study.com/buy/academy/lesson/what-was-the-dust-bowl-definition-facts-causes.html?src=ppc_bing_nonbrand&rcntxt=aws&crt=&kwd=SEO-PPC-BUY&kwid=dat-2329040505886940:loc-190&agid=1235851302596746&mt=b&device=c&network=o&_campaign=SeoPPC&msclkid=8224d700d0521a142bc8b03bf3b9cdfd

Frank_Wx wrote:We will see some much needed rain later this week. Even the longer range is bringing to show multiple threats for rain. I will in about a month from today there should be a big dent put into the drought.

Yep, looks like about 3-3.5" of rain between now and Dec. 4th for this area. Had a little brush fire here in town this morning, so glad this rain is coming soon!

Did I see snow in the forecast???

Snowprincess0204 wrote:Did I see snow in the forecast???

Depending on where you live and your elevation certainly possible

In my area, TWC did yesterday reference rain showers mixing with snow Thursday night from the system that is expected to bring significant rain during the day Thursday. They removed the reference to snow this morning, but still have temps dropping to 33* that night, so if there are lingering showers, I suppose some flakes of snow couldn't be ruled out.

beautiful day high of 68* taking advantage of repotting some plants and finishing up the winter prep in the yard today..a little weather gift. but ready for the cold...i saw today the weather channel now says some showers on Thur morning..hope they are wrong...everything is rock hard dry

Asking the moderators to remove the post above from scroc4. This is political. I respect this forum and ask for the same respect. I don’t want to be told what is fake please.

Lnda23 wrote:Asking the moderators to remove the post above from scroc4. This is political. I respect this forum and ask for the same respect. I don’t want to be told what is fake please.  

I wasn't telling you or anyone else what to think. I certainly didn't use the words fake in any of my post. But I do think it pertinent to have discussions about these weather related topics. Unfort weather seems to have been pulled into the world of politics. As you can see above an individual said the media was saying it was the worst drought in 160 years. Politics aside I questioned that statement because while its certainly been dry for sure, more so in quite some time around these parts, the claim that its the worst in 160 years seemed pretty bold. Doing my own research, I provided a counter argument to that statement with maps and data from official sources that showed perhaps it isn't the worst drought in 160 years.

So consequently Id like to know more about the nuance to that statement. Why WOULD someone say that if there is data that counters the statement? Lets have a conversation about it. State your case. (Maybe not you specifically, but the people making the claim) I am more than willing to listen and learn.

I don’t have any issue with someone questioning a statement  in or by the media based on scientific data which seems to contradict - or at least cast doubt - on it. Sroc provided maps above from a reputable source that contradicts what the media source JMan referred to appears to have reported. I didn’t chime in on this before because sroc basically made the same point, but I will now add my two cents:
It is highly dubious, if not definitively inaccurate, to call our current dry spell the “worst drought in 160 years.” I not only can read the same data that sroc posted showing worse droughts, but well remember some of them.
I remember for instance, a drought in 2002 in the NJ/NYC area that was so bad, the Governor of NJ literally advised people not to flush their toilets after doing a 1 but to do so after a 2. Yes, he really did. I looked at the maps to see if my memory was correct and lo and behold this map from Spring 2002 shows that drought:


I haven’t seen any such dire statements from NJ officials at this time which leads me to believe we’re doing ok compared to the 2002 drought.
I would also note August was quite wet around here. So this too makes me glance twice at such a bold statement that this is the “worst drought in 160 years.”
As to what would motivate the news report JMan cites, I have no idea. Maybe a misreading of the data. Or maybe a narrow reading of the data (I.e. If it doesn’t rain once from October 1-10, that is by definition the driest October 1-10 in history. But it tells us nothing of what that means for reservoirs and water tables if we had 5” of rain from Sept 1-30. This is just an example of how a snippet of data can be used to create an impression, even if the data is meaningless bigger picture). But I think it is perfectly appropriate to question its veracity when the data, and my own memory, doesn’t match the statement.
As to the media’s reliability. I won’t make any broader statement than this: if the media was always right, there would be no such thing as “corrections” “clarifications” and “retractions” - things we often see in the media. I know. I used to work in the field.

billg I posted my remembrance of the 1966 drought map Doc posted to verify it.I also posted the article about the 10 year dust bowl drought in the 1930's.Clearly that was much worse than the media's framing of this current one being the worst in 160 years.As for the poster saying Doc's post was political, I am left scratching my head.Doc never once said Republican or Democrat , just to do due diligence before believing any article from any news source.
Anyhoo, right now:

44, clear slight breeze

50* and Clear. And starting to pay much closer attention to this Thursday to Friday storm system . . .

Currently 55* and we just had RAIN....enough to have to run out And throw the stuff I took out of the shed to organize it for winter and did not finish before it got dark...lol I knew l should have finished..
But we had a small bout of rain ..

Self deleted

This is a weather forum. Come here to get away form political views in general. Not left or right. I love the weather.

Lnda23 wrote:This is a weather forum.  Come here to get away form political views in general. Not left or right. I love the weather.

Duly noted and I agree on all counts.

46 AT 3l45 AM and this report is courtesy of my dog who decided she wanted to take a walk. This equates to my opening the door and her being self-directed. The sky is completely overcast and there has been some rain. Nothing wholesale. Just enough to wet the blacktop and walkway and barely enough to leave droplets on the cars.

"and we just had RAIN....enough to have to run out And throw the stuff I took out of the shed to organize it for winter and did not finish before it got dark...lol I knew l should have finished.."

Mom-washing the car, watering the garden, and emptying the shed often seems to bring the gift of rain. I once had my floors sanded in another house. I had limited room so I build a driveway platform, put all my furniture on it, and tarped it three times and used bungree cords even thought the weather showed no rain for the next three days.

Right. It rained and not only did it rain, it rained hard and for three days. All ended well though. Nothing got wet. Camping trips, boat trips, you name it. I have been on the Hudson and the weather is beautiful...until it is not and you are praying to get back to dock. I mention this because as a boat owner, you must have found yourself in a sudden weather situation. It seems all avoidable. Life sometimes laughs at us.

45 degrees, cloudy, calm.
NWS so far for up here on the possible snow event?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw

50* and partly Cloudy. Anxiously awaiting the arrival of what is shaping up to be quite the rainfall the next 48 hours. And hopefully even some snowflakes before all is said and done.

dkodgis wrote:46 AT 3l45 AM and this report is courtesy of my dog who decided she wanted to take a walk. This equates to my opening the door and her being self-directed. The sky is completely overcast and there has been some rain. Nothing wholesale. Just enough to wet the blacktop and walkway and barely enough to leave droplets on the cars.

lol. MURPHY"S LAW.... and I have a fur baby too that likes the middle of the night stroll....and to boot he always decides he wants to lay and look at the freaking stars...wth..put him out during the day and he wants back in right away put him out in middle of the night while stumbling in the dark trying not to open eyes fully so as not to loose my sleep and he is stargazing..  glad you got some sprinkles as well..hopefully enough to tame the dust.

Currently cloudy and 54*
Here is to rain and snow!!

Persistent trough in the Atlantic helping cool water temps. I like seeing Atlantic troughs that persist.

A nice, light rain at 3 am. Window is open. 48. Feels warmer. Nice to hear the pitter-patter and night speech of rain falling on the good earth

48* outside and something very strange is happening outside right now. There is a liquid substance on the ground. Even my dogs coming in from outside came in with this strange unfamiliar liquid substance on them as well. I stepped outside briefly and this same substance ended up on me too. Be careful out there folks. It could be dangerous.

(Korny weather weenie joke over)