02/14 Godzilla Storm Part 2 Obs. Thread

[Frank_Wx]

Part 2 of this storm is expected to arrive between 8pm-10pm this evening. Due to the positioning of the 850mb and 700mb low's, as well as high lapse rates, there could be thunder snow which would produce snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour tonight in some area.

I expect my final snowfall map from last night to verify in most places. From part 1, we picked up between 8-14 inches of snow region wide. Isolated places 15-16 inches. For part 2, I think we are looking at 3-6+ inches of snow on Long Island / Central NJ / Coastal NJ / Eastern PA, and 4-8+ inches of snow for NYC / NNJ / HV. This will take snow totals region wide anywhere from 12-20 inches. Godzilla storm for sure!



You can see there is already convection developing around the core of the upper level low in northeast VA. Once this low tracks off our coast, cold air will come crashing inland. We may start as rain / mix, but I think we quickly change to snow. Notice I put "+" signs when I mentioned possible snow amounts. If there is training snow, someone could easily see more than 8 inches out of this event tonight.

Lets see how this goes!

[RJB8525]

my popcorn's ready for tonight

[Frank_Wx]

Current lightning!

[Scullybutcher]

Back in from 4 hours of blowing. Did have to get a brake away bolt, when I was 1/2 finished. Now time for a shot of vodka. Thanks for the update on tonight's totals because that what I wanted to know when I got back in

[oldtimer]

Thanks Frank for update on part 2

[HectorO]

Locking these threads too early. Anyways, I'm done, my back is shot and I hope Saturday is nothing but a dusting. At 28 I have the back of a 95 year old right now.

[Yschiff]

Frank what do you think amounts in the jfk area will be tonight?

[HectorO]

Back in from 4 hours of blowing. Did have to get a brake away bolt, when I was 1/2 finished. Now time for a shot of vodka. Thanks for the update on tonight's totals because that what I wanted to know when I got back in

Just made margarita, dreaming of being on a tropic island somewhere.

[Mathgod55]

Frank, big THANK YOU! Your tireless effort and spot on accuracy is greatly appreciated by myself and I'm sure countless others. Keep up the great job you're doing, and thanks again from West Islip.

[dolphins222]

great work frank, appreciate it.

i know this is prob not the thread for this question, but i will ask it anyways because why not, but after this storm and saturdays whatever happens, is this is it for winter?

i ask that, because while i am just learning and do not have even close to the knowledge that you and many other members on here have of reading long range maps, etc, by looking at some simple long range forecasts, all i see is 40s and 50s through mid march.

i hope that is not the case

[Frank_Wx]

great work frank, appreciate it.

i know this is prob not the thread for this question, but i will ask it anyways because why not, but after this storm and saturdays whatever happens, is this is it for winter?

i ask that, because while i am just learning and do not have even close to the knowledge that you and many other members on here have of reading long range maps, etc, by looking at some simple long range forecasts, all i see is 40s and 50s through mid march.

i hope that is not the case

I think the next 7-10 days will feature above normal temperatures with 1 or 2 rain events as well. By the very end of the month into early March, a winter pattern could return. Too early to tell, but that is just my hunch.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Well I hurt my back again, should have shoveled before it compacted, was like 13"+ before but down to around 9-10" ish with compacting. Seeing crazy precip amnts on some short range models, some have it in eastern PA and some have it right around NYC, compromise and you have NJ!

[NjWeatherGuy]

  

[WeatherBob]

I think we should give credit to Mount Holly and Upton NWS. I think they did a great job forecasting the snow amounts with this storm!

[dolphins222]

great work frank, appreciate it.

i know this is prob not the thread for this question, but i will ask it anyways because why not, but after this storm and saturdays whatever happens, is this is it for winter?

i ask that, because while i am just learning and do not have even close to the knowledge that you and many other members on here have of reading long range maps, etc, by looking at some simple long range forecasts, all i see is 40s and 50s through mid march.

i hope that is not the case

I think the next 7-10 days will feature above normal temperatures with 1 or 2 rain events as well. By the very end of the month into early March, a winter pattern could return. Too early to tell, but that is just my hunch.

well i deff trust your analysis so lets hope winter comes back at end of month into march.

truth is, as much as we all love the snow, after this coming saturdays storm, a week of 40s and 50s would not be the worst thing.

i just hope we get at least 1 more major snowstorm before the winter is over.

lets also hope tonight overachieves.

[amugs]

Okay, down at my gray friend Dino's (ILA ALL THE WAY!! Long shoreman) Anyway having a Happy Hour and then dinner and drinks.

Okay the temp is 32 at my house and things are getting icy, light sleet and freezing drizzle - disgusting. The convection is inline with the models NAM and UKIE for 4-8"+. for our NNJ, HV, EPA area and SW CT gets crushed with about a foot.

This storm will go down in the annals of the history books for a number of aspects:

1. Duration
2. Snowfall amounts
3. Set up - H5 and players involved
4. Ice in the south
5. Vast area it affected

More but can't think right now - having my second red hot - WOOPWOOP!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Lightning increasing, coming this way.

[RJB8525]

  

is this a lock with amounts can the model still change it before late tonight?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Okay, down at my gray friend Dino's (ILA ALL THE WAY!! Long shoreman)  Anyway having a Happy Hour and then dinner and drinks.

Okay the temp is 32 at my house and things are getting icy, light sleet and freezing drizzle - disgusting. The convection is inline with the models NAM and UKIE for 4-8"+. for our NNJ, HV, EPA area and SW CT gets crushed with about a foot.

This storm will go down in the annals of the history books for a number of aspects:

1. Duration
2. Snowfall amounts
3. Set up - H5 and players involved
4. Ice in the south
5. Vast area it affected

More but can't think right now - having my second red hot - WOOPWOOP!!

NYC now at 51.0 inches for the season, 14th place all time for a seasonal snowfall. With today's 9.5 inches they jumped from 30th to 14th.

5 additional inches tonight would put this season in 7th place all time for them.

Still a ways to go to match 3 years ago when they had 61.9 but maybe with some luck by Sunday?

[sroc4]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This also becomes the first 5 year period in history that NYC has had 3 50+ inch snowfall seasons.

2009/10    51.4
2010/11    61.9
2013/14    51.0 and still going

[nutleyblizzard]

My good neighbor owns a snowblower, and always plows me out. However, he's vacationing in the islands but told me that I could use the blower. After trying to start the damn thing for 45 minutes, I finally gave up. It took me more than 2 hours to dig out. I'm exhausted, my back is aching. What is my response to that experience? GIVE ME MY CCB!  

[goalscore]

very heavy winds here all day. Shaking the house right now. About 11 inches of wet snow on the south shore with slush at the bottom now

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

Hey Doc, don't be messing with that bulls eye, I like it right where it is.

[sroc4]

My good neighbor owns a snowblower, and always plows me out. However, he's vacationing in the islands but told me that I could use the blower. After trying to start the damn thing for 45 minutes, I finally gave up. It took me more than 2 hours to dig out. I'm exhausted, my back is aching. What is my response to that experience? GIVE ME MY CCB!  

We all are in here.  Lol. True weather weenies.   

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