Re: 02/14 Godzilla Storm Part 2 Obs. Thread

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

Hey Doc, don't be messing with that bulls eye, I like it right where it is.

[sroc4]

My good neighbor owns a snowblower, and always plows me out. However, he's vacationing in the islands but told me that I could use the blower. After trying to start the damn thing for 45 minutes, I finally gave up. It took me more than 2 hours to dig out. I'm exhausted, my back is aching. What is my response to that experience? GIVE ME MY CCB!  

We all are in here.  Lol. True weather weenies.   

[sroc4]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

Hey Doc, don't be messing with that bulls eye, I like it right where it is.

         

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My good neighbor owns a snowblower, and always plows me out. However, he's vacationing in the islands but told me that I could use the blower. After trying to start the damn thing for 45 minutes, I finally gave up. It took me more than 2 hours to dig out. I'm exhausted, my back is aching. What is my response to that experience? GIVE ME MY CCB!  

You truly belong on this forum, no doubt.

You're as sick as the rest of us.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

Wasn't east it was colder. Furthest east guidance has the band over NYC and 20mi in each direction, furthest west is parts of NEPA, split down the middle is over NJ and NYC/PHI borderline, I like the NAM ATM. Did very well with the first round, doing good with this storm I'm sticking with it ATM.

[goalscore]

frank do you think the coast will be cold enough to start as snow when the precip comes in? Im at 33 right now on the south shore

[sroc4]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

Wasn't east it was colder. Furthest east guidance has the band over NYC and 20mi in each direction, furthest west is parts of NEPA, split down the middle is over NJ and NYC/PHI borderline, I like the NAM ATM. Did very well with the first round, doing good with this storm I'm sticking with it ATM.

Was colder cause it was a tick east of where most guidance had it. Yes NAM killed it for the first part of this storm IMO.

[NjWeatherGuy]

frank do you think the coast will be cold enough to start as snow when the precip comes in? Im at 33 right now on the south shore

From what I see it's rain going to heavy snow for most, places in PA will likely start as snow, similar to this. This was thundersnow BTW.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02-SurfaceMaps.html

[docstox12]

This also becomes the first 5 year period in history that NYC has had 3 50+ inch snowfall seasons.

2009/10    51.4
2010/11    61.9
2013/14    51.0 and still going

And that will finally provide FACTS to quiet down these old timers my age and older who always claim..."the winters when I was a kid were always snowier then today's!"

[HectorO]

My good neighbor owns a snowblower, and always plows me out. However, he's vacationing in the islands but told me that I could use the blower. After trying to start the damn thing for 45 minutes, I finally gave up. It took me more than 2 hours to dig out. I'm exhausted, my back is aching. What is my response to that experience? GIVE ME MY CCB!  

You truly belong on this forum, no doubt.

You're as sick as the rest of us.

They're snowing maybe anothher 4-8 inches tonight for my area. I hope not, I hope more like 4 instead of 8. And Saturday a dusting. I'm done with this. My back can't take it anymore, and there is absolutely no more room for me to put snow. I hope we don't get anything more until March and maybe in March just like 10 inches would be good for me.

They should have held the winter olympics here lol.

[NjWeatherGuy]

18z GFS FWIW

https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/v2/1024x768q90/835/86zp.png

[docstox12]

I think axis of heaviest banding ends of east of guidance just like round one did.  Prob NYC and points east. I am going on a gut feeling here.

Hey Doc, don't be messing with that bulls eye, I like it right where it is.

I don't know, CP, that would blast me with a lot more snow.My back is killing me.

Oh,crap, bring it on!

[NjWeatherGuy]

I am in my 20s and my back hurts from the past few weeks, cant imagine how you old timers feel haha. Chk this out, storm is a slow mover.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This also becomes the first 5 year period in history that NYC has had 3 50+ inch snowfall seasons.

2009/10    51.4
2010/11    61.9
2013/14    51.0 and still going

And that will finally provide FACTS to quiet down these old timers my age and older who always claim..."the winters when I was a kid were always snowier then today's!"

Agreed Doc but it was definitely colder than but drier. I like this better.

[Fededle22]

Me and my two neighbors are completely dug out thanks to some team work and a great snow blower. Ready for round two tonight but on Corona #2. If we get another 4-5 inches I'm wondering if schools will be closed yet again. I want to be yet another person to thank Frank and all the other experts on this forum that have put in hours of research to give us more accurate forecasts. While I love snow storms, come March 1st I really am ready for Spring as I am supposed to have my first softball game on March 30th.

[goalscore]

Precip already in southern jersey. If i was just a few degrees colder earlier i would of had 18 inches with round 1. Hate mixing. Hopefully temps crash within a couple hours

[docstox12]

This also becomes the first 5 year period in history that NYC has had 3 50+ inch snowfall seasons.

2009/10    51.4
2010/11    61.9
2013/14    51.0 and still going

And that will finally provide FACTS to quiet down these old timers my age and older who always claim..."the winters when I was a kid were always snowier then today's!"

Agreed Doc but it was definitely colder than but drier. I like this better.

Absolutely.I've never seen a stretch like you put up watching since 1960.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My good neighbor owns a snowblower, and always plows me out. However, he's vacationing in the islands but told me that I could use the blower. After trying to start the damn thing for 45 minutes, I finally gave up. It took me more than 2 hours to dig out. I'm exhausted, my back is aching. What is my response to that experience? GIVE ME MY CCB!  

You truly belong on this forum, no doubt.

You're as sick as the rest of us.

They're snowing maybe anothher 4-8 inches tonight for my area. I hope not, I hope more like 4 instead of 8. And Saturday a dusting. I'm done with this. My back can't take it anymore, and there is absolutely no more room for me to put snow. I hope we don't get anything more until March and maybe in March just like 10 inches would be good for me.

They should have held the winter olympics here lol.

Get some rest Hector, we know you're not serious. LOL

[oldtimer]

Come-on Hector We are on a roll! Take a nap

[Math23x7]

This also becomes the first 5 year period in history that NYC has had 3 50+ inch snowfall seasons.

2009/10    51.4
2010/11    61.9
2013/14    51.0 and still going

And that will finally provide FACTS to quiet down these old timers my age and older who always claim..."the winters when I was a kid were always snowier then today's!"

Agreed Doc but it was definitely colder than but drier. I like this better.

It's amazing that this season is over one standard deviation above the 144-year average. It is currently in 14th place. And if it gets at least 2.3" of snow from this second round, it would be in the top ten!

[docstox12]

I am in my 20s and my back hurts from the past few weeks, cant imagine how you old timers feel haha. Chk this out, storm is a slow mover.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

I medicate, Tom, with Bourbon and water (Kentucky Tea).After a few of those,I don't give a crap about back pain anymore.

Only way for me to face tomorrows shoveling if that Nam map you put up pans out.My house is target zero,LOL!

[jmanley32]

SO areas around NYC, bronx and southern westcheser are the jackpot area again? Man Im gonna have to get up at 3am to shovel out again, just got in am exhausted after diffing two cars out.  Don't get me wrong I want a crazzzy CCB!  I saw the two snow maps posted which is more accurante APAWA or the RAP, the heaviest looks too far west.  And another 12.5! Dang! Whoever gets it is going to have quite a snow pack!

[NjWeatherGuy]

I am in my 20s and my back hurts from the past few weeks, cant imagine how you old timers feel haha. Chk this out, storm is a slow mover.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

I medicate, Tom, with Bourbon and water (Kentucky Tea).After a few of those,I don't give a crap about back pain anymore.

Only way for me to face tomorrows shoveling if that Nam map you put up pans out.My house is target zero,LOL!

Mine's in that axis too, ugh.

[skinsfan1177]

so coast doesn't look to get much with those maps tom

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This also becomes the first 5 year period in history that NYC has had 3 50+ inch snowfall seasons.

2009/10    51.4
2010/11    61.9
2013/14    51.0 and still going

And that will finally provide FACTS to quiet down these old timers my age and older who always claim..."the winters when I was a kid were always snowier then today's!"

Agreed Doc but it was definitely colder than but drier. I like this better.

It's amazing that this season is over one standard deviation above the 144-year average.  It is currently in 14th place.  And if it gets at least 2.3" of snow from this second round, it would be in the top ten!

I never thought of it in those terms but very true Math it is.

And this season is now almost double the 144 year average of 28.5. 6 inches tonight which may be a stretch would get it there. 5 inches to get to 7th, from 30th to 7th in one day, now that would be a productive day.

[RJB8525]

Frank put his map up for Sat and his theory behind it in a thread i don't know if i should cry or be happy..maybe just drunk?

[NjWeatherGuy]

so coast doesn't look to get much with those maps tom

Still up in the air, this is a very hard forecast, gonna have to nowcast it.

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