Re: 02/14 Godzilla Storm Part 2 Obs. Thread

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:29 pm

So basically where this set's up there's not going to be much west to east movement? Where it sets up if you're in the jackpot and someone 30 miles east or west, may see several inches less? Is that right?

I haven't seen this much, so I'm not sure of the mechanics here.

It looks like a large version of a snow squall, only no lake involved.

Anyone that could explain?

by jtswife Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:30 pm

oldtimer wrote:Cant get tired of snow Wait till sat lol

I am orginally an Arizona girl, still wonder why I am here. I am tired!!!

by nujerzeedevil Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:31 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:wait ace, thats additional or total from this morning, we cant see models with only the additional?
Thats just tonight. Its a little extreme i would say, but the HRRR was pretty good this morning.

No effin way!!! Holy schnikes!!!

by goalscore Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:31 pm

dont think models are too accurate with this. Nowcast.

and it is so windy here the wind is blowing through a crack or something in my gutter and making this loud train horn sound every like 15 min and it keeps scaring the crap out of me Shocked

by **Quietace** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:33 pm

Remember this is convective precip, has very high rates. So if you get a few bands that trail over the same area then you get a very decent snowfall.

by **RJB8525** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:36 pm

Quietace wrote:HRRR has been shifting back and forth like tom said. Its a bit more east this run.

whats the consistence on the hrrr snowfall? overdone?

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:36 pm

ace wow, but thats much further west of NYC, originally frank had shown NYC being the setup for banding. Is that going to shift east into NYC? I doubt those totals verify otherwise some of us be pushing 3 feet! WOW

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:37 pm

Quietace wrote:Remember this is convective precip, has very high rates. So if you get a few bands that trail over the same area then you get a very decent snowfall.

Ryan:

So basically where this set's up there's not going to be much west to east movement? Where it sets up if you're in the jackpot and someone 30 miles east or west, may see several inches less? Is that right?

I haven't seen this much, so I'm not sure of the mechanics here.

It looks like a large version of a snow squall, only no lake involved.

by **Quietace** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:38 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
Quietace wrote:HRRR has been shifting back and forth like tom said. Its a bit more east this run.

whats the consistence on the hrrr snowfall? overdone?

Often a Very reliable short range model. But this is probably too extreme.

by goalscore Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:40 pm

i think it would move a little east as it trains through

by **Quietace** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:Remember this is convective precip, has very high rates. So if you get a few bands that trail over the same area then you get a very decent snowfall.

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Ryan:

So basically where this set's up there's not going to be much west to east movement? Where it sets up if you're in the jackpot and someone 30 miles east or west, may see several inches less? Is that right?

I haven't seen this much, so I'm not sure of the mechanics here.

It looks like a large version of a snow squall, only no lake involved.

Looks like a trailing convection set up. So yes you are correct. Think of it like trailing thunderstorms in the summer.

by **amugs** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:43 pm

Jman it wil rotate from the NW to the east as the storm pull sout but if it trains - means it just runs over or stalls over the same area for hours with 1-3 or 2-4 CCB's you get crushed - like this morning

by **amugs** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:44 pm

Are you fn kidding me - Monmouth count y look sot get absolutely obliterated on this run

by **aiannone** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:44 pm

Ehh that's crappy for me

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:45 pm

Hey NYC and southern WC still showing a foot but 20+ in NJ WOW, if this verifies I will be floored just as I was this morning. And thundersnow, oh can't wait. Only saw that once when I was a kid it scared the crap outta me as I was outside sledding.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:46 pm

Ace we may get hammered lol if that verifies not likely I know

by **Quietace** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:47 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace we may get hammered lol if that verifies not likely I know

We might tonight. Not that much but a comfortable amount. lol

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:49 pm

OK mugs so the placing of that map is not set in stone, because we are not exactly sure where the train will setup. I know exactly what you mean as a train like summer t-storm. Just at the beginning of this thread Frank noted NYC area having the most along with HV. This looks to be further west but quite a bit, guess we will have to wait and see. This all starts around 8-10?

by **RJB8525** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:OK mugs so the placing of that map is not set in stone, because we are not exactly sure where the train will setup. I know exactly what you mean as a train like summer t-storm. Just at the beginning of this thread Frank noted NYC area having the most along with HV. This looks to be further west but quite a bit, guess we will have to wait and see. This all starts around 8-10?

this is uptons response for NYC

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 8
INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
14 TO 20 INCHES.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:58 pm

HRRR and RAP keep waffling, like I said nowcast, none of these can be taken verbatim, RGEM was further west than HRRR with precip, close to where GFS has it.