Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:14 pm

It looks like southern WC is the cut off for over 6.

by **docstox12** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:16 pm

snow247 wrote:Wow shows almost nothing for north of the city wtf

Yeah, the NAM cuts me off to nothing.What a friggin' riot! In this day of advanced technology, these models spit out such vastly different solutions.It is really disgraceful!

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:21 pm

Still at 41 come on cold air where are you

by Biggin23 Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:23 pm

HiRes NAM looked good for the area as well!

by **oldtimer** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:24 pm

39* Light rain up !*

by **billg315** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:25 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Still at 41 come on cold air where are you

A lot of the projections I've seen have the temperature dropping rapidly once they start to drop and many don't show that happening until closer to midnight, so I wouldn't worry too much. I have been at about 39*/40* here for three hours, but I bet after midnight it drops fast.

by **snow247** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:25 pm

Biggin23 wrote:HiRes NAM looked good for the area as well!

Not good for the entire area, only NYC/CNJ.

by **docstox12** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:28 pm

snow247 wrote:
Biggin23 wrote:HiRes NAM looked good for the area as well!

Not good for the entire area, only NYC/CNJ.

If that NAM is correct, NWS nails my area perfectly with 2 to 4. We'll see.Radar right now looks like they are right, northern edge ragged.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:29 pm

925

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs - Page 11 925mb_sf

850

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs - Page 11 850mb_sf

by **Artechmetals** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:33 pm

Temps up from 40 to 41 come on cold air where are you

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:36 pm

Artechmetals wrote:Temps up from 40 to 41 come on cold air where are you

I'm hearing after midnight they will fall

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:41 pm

Good writeup from Walt Drag...final map will be out soon

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

by **jimv45** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:43 pm

Docs just got home again last time I checked they were saying game on now no boy another night of wondering what tomorrow will bring .

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:47 pm

Report of snow starting to mix in with the rain in Sussex county. Its coming folks!!! Currently 39 in Nutley with a cold rain.

by **oldtimer** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:49 pm

Nick on Fox 5 at lease 4-6 in NYC More at 10pm

by **Math23x7** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:52 pm

0Z RGEM is rolling.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:55 pm

docstox12 wrote:
snow247 wrote:
Biggin23 wrote:HiRes NAM looked good for the area as well!

Not good for the entire area, only NYC/CNJ.

If that NAM is correct, NWS nails my area perfectly with 2 to 4. We'll see.Radar right now looks like they are right, northern edge ragged.

Very odd there's been no WWA all day with 2-4 inches predicted. As usual this winter I have no idea what to expect tomorrow I was 3-5 in franks last map I'll go with that.

For this storm in eastern Orange County the following will apply.

SDQ will be 2 inches.
SSQ will be 3-5 inches.
SEQ will be 6 or more inches.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:59 pm

Math23x7 wrote:0Z RGEM is rolling.

Par for the course will be for it to now go south after adjusting north all day.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:05 am

Updated final call

This was my blog from earlier to explain reasoning

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/…/last-minute-critical-…

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs - Page 11 10257816_899113773473716_4733806287635258293_n

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs - Page 11 10257816_899113773473716_4733806287635258293_n

by **snow247** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Updated final call

This was my blog from earlier to explain reasoning

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/…/last-minute-critical-…

Ugh so close to the 6-10 area, I can walk to it right now lol

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:08 am

Been flurries on and off here since about 5:30pm. Steadier "heavy flurries" starting now. Been around 30 since about 6pm and holding steady.

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:10 am

Has anybody else noticed that this band of precipitation has been nearly stationary for hours now? lol Or am I just seeing things? Haven't really paid much attention to anything today....

by **mako460** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:10 am

right smack dab in the middle of JP for a change, gotta love it.

by **oldtimer** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:13 am

When are the METS going to get on board with this??

by **mako460** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:14 am

tomorrow lol.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:16 am

I'm still impressed with the radar goes all the way into Texas their is a lot of moisture to work with

by **rb924119** Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:16 am

Only three SREF members are actually portraying the current northern fringe of the precipitation shield correctly, and comparing reality to the mean, the mean is way too far south/slow

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