Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

by **Quietace** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:47 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Hey Ryan, I called this an hour ago.

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051258Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD
AND NORTHERN DE.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE
WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR
THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z.

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A
FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION
WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST
12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER
/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS
AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST
BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

Hey Frank

by **hyde345** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:47 am

28 and overcast in Hyde Park (just north of Poughkeepsie), absolutely nothing. Had a little light snow after midnight but that's it. It looks like we are in it on radar but nothing reaching the ground.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:48 am

I'm pushing back the end time from 3-4pm to 5-7pm

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs - Page 25 Hrrr_ref_nyc_12

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:49 am

hyde345 wrote:28 and overcast in Hyde Park (just north of Poughkeepsie), absolutely nothing. Had a little light snow after midnight but that's it. It looks like we are in it on radar but nothing reaching the ground.

Man, you're too far north. Don't expect much

by Biggin23 Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:50 am

Quietace wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Hey Ryan, I called this an hour ago.

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051258Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD
AND NORTHERN DE.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE
WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR
THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z.

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A
FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION
WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST
12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER
/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS
AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST
BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.
Hey Frank

I was just saying I can't wait to the see the circle on top of my house!!

by **hyde345** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
hyde345 wrote:28 and overcast in Hyde Park (just north of Poughkeepsie), absolutely nothing. Had a little light snow after midnight but that's it. It looks like we are in it on radar but nothing reaching the ground.

Man, you're too far north. Don't expect much

I'm not expecting anything.

by Yschiff Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:53 am

Bernie thinks 3-6 for nyc
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-produce-major-delays-from-midwest-to-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true

by Guest Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:54 am

Picking up again in Syosset. Heavy now bigger flakes. Radar looks good. Pushing 4" soon.

For those of you in the Hudson Valley I just spoke to my parents who are up in north/central Ulster county. They are in Frank's c-2" zone. Same latitude as Poughkeepsie just west up in the mountains and they haven't seen a single flake.

by Guest Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:55 am

Yschiff wrote:Bernie thinks 3-6 for nyc
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-produce-major-delays-from-midwest-to-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true

By when 10:00 a.m. I'm there already!!

by **lglickman1** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:55 am

is that heavy banding that the NWS is taking about going to move into NYC?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:55 am

Even though the current radar show 25 dbz bands overhead here, the snow has almost shut off.

Must be the dreaded S word Frank rearing it's ugly head, again.

by **Vinnydula** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:01 am

My bf sent my a picture of Poughkeepsie and there's nothing

by **Joe Snow** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:02 am

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs - Page 25 3-5-1511

Nice.............

by **Vinnydula** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:03 am

We have around 4in in Dobbs

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:03 am

Approaching 3" here already and the radar looks soooo impressive with heavy snowfall rates. That 4-6" from Upton for me is so going to bust low!

by **docstox12** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:07 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Even though the current radar show 25 dbz bands overhead here, the snow has almost shut off.

Must be the dreaded S word Frank rearing it's ugly head, again.

CP, weird storm up here.There are occaisional bursts of mod/heavy snow, then it shuts down.Just can't get into gear.Strange because the radar looks good.

Only 1.25 inch of snow here so far.Measured at 9:30

I'll be happy to get 2 inches.Those north of me are busting out completely as Frank said due to low level dry air.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:08 am

syosnow94 wrote:Picking up again in Syosset. Heavy now bigger flakes. Radar looks good. Pushing 4" soon.

For those of you in the Hudson Valley I just spoke to my parents who are up in north/central Ulster county. They are in Frank's c-2" zone. Same latitude as Poughkeepsie just west up in the mountains and they haven't seen a single flake.

That area is dealing with low level dry air. They won't see anything.

by Fededle22 Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:09 am

Wow! Really snowing hard right now!

by **RJB8525** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:10 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Yschiff wrote:Bernie thinks 3-6 for nyc
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-produce-major-delays-from-midwest-to-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true

By when 10:00 a.m. I'm there already!!

Yeah, Bernie needs to recheck that

It's been coming down like gangbusters since 8.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:11 am

the temp finally dropped down to 30*! we have a little more than 2 inches..it is coming down now..but have to go out and shovel(don't like using the snowblower)...my husband has big meetings today had to go into city Sad

(on the bright side 13 days until he works 15 minutes from home and gives up the trek to the city...BUT mother nature is really sticking it to him...lol..the subway stopped working the other night and he walked cross town in that sleet storm..3 hour trek home that night...ferry's not running these days so he been taking the bus and it broke down on turnpike this morning..poor guy) hope everyone else is safe and tucked away enjoying this beautiful snow...

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:12 am

Yschiff wrote:Bernie thinks 3-6 for nyc
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-produce-major-delays-from-midwest-to-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true

No offense to Bernie, but that's ignorance. NWS at least raised amounts to 6-8. NYC is already at 3 with 6-7 hours to go.

by **jimv45** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:13 am

Hyde CP Docs just another day in the dreaded snow hole but look at the bright side it going to be in the 50s soon I love snow and winter but my older son wants to get into baseball season and there is nowhere to play catch!

by **RJB8525** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:13 am

I don't like snow blowers either, i'd take a good shovel any day they have the cool push ones and non back stressers lol

by **Joe Snow** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:15 am

HRRR shows snowing still at 7:00pm in NYC

by Biggin23 Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:15 am

I'm thinking if these rates keep up for another 6-7 hours we are going to be close, if not in, double digits on the I-195 corridor.

by **snow247** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:16 am

4 inches here and pouring snow still, impressive for the LHV. Pictures coming soon, taking a mandatory snowstorm walk lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:16 am

Cool

http://flightaware.com/miserymap/all/1425499200

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