Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[jmanley32]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

huh? Lol

[skinsfan1177]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

LOL..I think I know what your trying to say.  

Lol sroc yes ment I think I'll stick to the guys on here

[docstox12]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

[snow247]

.... LOL

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

Whew, that's a relief. I was thinking it was something that could get us shutdown if we did make a thread for it.

[skinsfan1177]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

 
Haha doc I think I need my eyes checked

[algae888]

I will take my chances with this look any day and twice on sunday...

gem ens if you loop through you see the neg south of the Aleutians keeps building and building. euro ens day 9 and 13 look very nice. just need to get under 5 days now. interesting times ahead

[sroc4]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

Whew, that's a relief. I was thinking it was something that could get us shutdown if we did make a thread for it.

Im dying over here.

[Frank_Wx]

This is one heck of an impressive block shown on both OP GFS and EURO models in the 8-10 day range. The linking ridges over the Arcric is a nice look. I would much rather have seen a ridge bridge from the EPO to NAO regions, but in life we can't always get what we want. The EPO/PNA is the reason why this is not a "madonne" pattern. The Pacific signals are modeled to be transient / neutral while the AO/NAO are expected to be well negative.

In the past two seasons we've gotten plenty of snow from a favorable Pacific and a not-not-so favorable Atlantic. Can the same be said vice-versa? We'll see how this plays out between January 16th to the end of the month. There's a couple of intriguing storm storm chances which could be timed well with a ridge spike in the west to bring our first widespread snow event of the season. As long as the Aleutian trough does not trend too far east, we should be able to see a small window of opportunity for the PNA to spike positive.



Kudos to the folks who recognized the pattern change to occur mid-month. It's a pattern that's much better than what we've seen. I still maintain the position that February will be our best month to see optimal snow chances. Shown above is 500mb height anomalies 7-day mean from the new EPS Parallel Ensemble Mean  model the first week of February. Compared to our expected upper air pattern, this one features more of a -EPO/+PNA as the Aleutian Low retrogrades west. This is in response to the favorable tropical forcing that will be taking place through this month over the Dateline. Additionally, the MJO looks to remain in favorable phases that promote convection on or near the Dateline.



Heading into the 2nd week of February the Pacific teleconnectors begin to look a bit more robust as the Aleutian trough retrograde continues. Basically what i'm trying to say is the January pattern from mid-month to the end is pretty good and should deliver at least a couple of snow chances. But, the February pattern could bring us a cooperative Pacific and we know from the last 2 seasons what that could do for us. And with an active STJ, I think it would bring some extreme storms to the area.

[algae888]

18z gfs gives New York City its average mean snowfall in one storm lol by far the best fantasy porn we've seen this year

[Frank_Wx]

Everyone go to banter thread if you want to see what a Roidzilla looks like

[frank 638]

i just checked it out frank you are the man

[skinsfan1177]

[quote="sroc4"]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

Whew, that's a relief. I was thinking it was something that could get us shutdown if we did make a thread for it.

Im dying over here.   [/quote

at least I made everyone laugh through these times of waiting and waiting for snow!

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z EURO PARA, which is the new EURO and has verified better than the old EURO so far, also shows a strong coastal storm around the 17th. So the GFS is not alone. And the fact EURO shows it to me gives the storm more credibility. Please do not redistribute this image.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Gonna put it here because 240 hours... Wow.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=240&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Math23x7]

[ltr]I have looked back at times when we had a -NAO, -AO, +PNA, and -EPO. during the December-March period. The results are mixed. Three counter-examples: [/ltr]



1) January 11th-18th, 1992. That time period had all four as I mentioned above. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time and only 0.2" of snow occurred there that month.

2) January 28th-February 4th, 1998. All eight days met the criteria. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time. During January and February, only 0.5" of snow occurred there.

3) December 23rd, 2001-January 4th, 2002. 11 of those 13 days had all four. No snow fell in NYC fell during that time. And only 3.5" fell in NYC the entire winter (0.5" on January 7th and 3.0" on January 19th).

[Math23x7]

[ltr]I have looked back at times when we had a -NAO, -AO, +PNA, and -EPO. during the December-March period. The results are mixed. Three counter-examples: [/ltr]





1) January 11th-18th, 1992. That time period had all four as I mentioned above. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time and only 0.2" of snow occurred there that month.

2) January 28th-February 4th, 1998. All eight days met the criteria. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time. During January and February, only 0.5" of snow occurred there.

3) December 23rd, 2001-January 4th, 2002. 11 of those 13 days had all four. No snow fell in NYC fell during that time. And only 3.5" fell in NYC the entire winter (0.5" on January 7th and 3.0" on January 19th).

I don't know why the [ltr] is visible in the post above

[amugs]

[ltr]I have looked back at times when we had a -NAO, -AO, +PNA, and -EPO. during the December-March period. The results are mixed. Three counter-examples: [/ltr]




1) January 11th-18th, 1992. That time period had all four as I mentioned above. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time and only 0.2" of snow occurred there that month.

2) January 28th-February 4th, 1998. All eight days met the criteria. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time. During January and February, only 0.5" of snow occurred there.

3) December 23rd, 2001-January 4th, 2002. 11 of those 13 days had all four. No snow fell in NYC fell during that time. And only 3.5" fell in NYC the entire winter (0.5" on January 7th and 3.0" on January 19th).

Nothing like Math to put the hex on this storm and pattern like Juno last year

If this happens - you hex us - I swear I will drive out to LI and give you the Croatian mootsfitza and hex you !!!!!!!!

[Math23x7]

[ltr]I have looked back at times when we had a -NAO, -AO, +PNA, and -EPO. during the December-March period. The results are mixed. Three counter-examples: [/ltr]






1) January 11th-18th, 1992. That time period had all four as I mentioned above. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time and only 0.2" of snow occurred there that month.

2) January 28th-February 4th, 1998. All eight days met the criteria. Only a trace of snow fell in NYC during that time. During January and February, only 0.5" of snow occurred there.

3) December 23rd, 2001-January 4th, 2002. 11 of those 13 days had all four. No snow fell in NYC fell during that time. And only 3.5" fell in NYC the entire winter (0.5" on January 7th and 3.0" on January 19th).

Nothing like Math to put the hex on this storm and pattern like Juno last year  

If this happens - you hex us - I swear I will drive out to LI and give you the Croatian mootsfitza and hex you !!!!!!!!

I'm not trying the put a hex on the storm 

I'm just trying to rationalize the situation.

Can we get a "Godzilla" snowstorm with the upcoming pattern? Absolutely!  But it's in no way a guarantee.

[amugs]

Math, cut the debbie downer tude and stop posting such bad juju!! Like I said a while ago nothing but positive juju after the Dec we had, don't care for this info to be pointed out or I'll point you with the Croat hex?!

[Math23x7]

Math, cut the debbie downer tude and stop posting such bad juju!! Like I said a while ago nothing but positive juju after the Dec we had, don't care for this info to be pointed out or I'll point you with the Croat hex?!

[billg315]

I don't know what the "Croatian Mootsfitza" is, but it sounds like something I'd rather avoid.

[Guest]

Math, cut the debbie downer tude and stop posting such bad juju!! Like I said a while ago nothing but positive juju after the Dec we had, don't care for this info to be pointed out or I'll point you with the Croat hex?!

Mugsy. Croatia. this starts to get weird. I'm 43 teach H.S. and coach H.S. Love the weather and my dad and last name are croatian.(it was Austria when my grandfather was born, Yugoslavia when my uncle was born, Italy when my dad was born and is now Croatia. The house they were all born in has never moved.) Me and you have way too many similarities. Oh yeah I forgot. The last 3 winters I built an ice skating rink in my backyard.

[amugs]

At Math - take this!!! POSTIVE JUJU

As noted previously, an AO-/PNA+ pattern promotes a higher frequency of measurable snowfall events in the Mid-Atlantic region. The increase ranges from about 9% in New York City to about 22% in Washington, DC.

Moreover, an AO-/PNA+ pattern accounts for a larger share of snowstorms as amounts increase. Below are some statistics for New York City:



In the end, the longer the current AO-/PNA+ pattern holds, the more likely it is that the NYC area will see measurable snow. The kind of severe blocking that is forecast by the GFS ensembles has coincided with snowy periods in the past e.g., February 2010.

For now, it's too soon to try to pinpoint specific events. However, as the AO moves into a steep dive in  coming days and the PNA remains positive, the potential will exist, especially near or after mid-month.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

Whew, that's a relief. I was thinking it was something that could get us shutdown if we did make a thread for it.

Im dying over here.   [/quote

at least I made everyone laugh through these times of waiting and waiting for snow!

This is proof positive we are succumbing to PTSDD (Post traumatic snow deprivation disorder). Skins makes one typo and we spend all day on it.

[Math23x7]

Mugs, as I mentioned, the teleconnections are in favorable territory for a Godzilla.  And the image you posted illustrates it.  But we quite a ways to go before we can get this.

Of course, if we do get it, then without question I want it to be during a weekend for a short-notice NJ Strong Get Together, preferably at Central Park where all of us can unleash our inner Jim Cantore when thundersnow happens.  And maybe chat with the zookeeper, the former snow observer for NYC.  It's has been quite a while since the late-January 2011 snowstorm (which I referred to as "The storm that Frank called").  That storm has a special place in my heart.  Being outside with your camera videotaping 2-3"+ hourly snowfall rates is as awesome as it gets!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Even though it's ten days away and in fantasy land if this storm does not come to fruition Math is our new scapegoat. Sacrifice him to the forum Gods.

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