Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Math23x7]

Mugs, as I mentioned, the teleconnections are in favorable territory for a Godzilla.  And the image you posted illustrates it.  But we quite a ways to go before we can get this.

Of course, if we do get it, then without question I want it to be during a weekend for a short-notice NJ Strong Get Together, preferably at Central Park where all of us can unleash our inner Jim Cantore when thundersnow happens.  And maybe chat with the zookeeper, the former snow observer for NYC.  It's has been quite a while since the late-January 2011 snowstorm (which I referred to as "The storm that Frank called").  That storm has a special place in my heart.  Being outside with your camera videotaping 2-3"+ hourly snowfall rates is as awesome as it gets!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Even though it's ten days away and in fantasy land if this storm does not come to fruition Math is our new scapegoat. Sacrifice him to the forum Gods.

[Snowfall]

So we should get a thread about 3 to 4 days out

[sroc4]

Normally we make a thread for a threat when its under 5-7days out if its still on the models.

[docstox12]

I'll stick eat Hong the guys on here!

Skins, I think this is on the wrong thread. I'm not really sure if we have a thread for this.

I thought he said he wanted chopsticks to eat Chinese food with the guys here.Then again, I am on my way to cataractville.

Whew, that's a relief. I was thinking it was something that could get us shutdown if we did make a thread for it.

Im dying over here.   [/quote

at least I made everyone laugh through these times of waiting and waiting for snow!

This is proof positive we are succumbing to PTSDD (Post traumatic snow deprivation disorder). Skins makes one typo and we spend all day on it.

Absolutely! If you remember last year around this time, people were searching with pitchforks and torches somebody you had mentioned was jinxing our snow chances.Mid to late January is a dangerous time on this website if no snowstorms are brewing.Sanity and reason are a thing of the past!! Madness reigns!!

[sroc4]

I suggest the images everyone saw on last nights 18z GFS be erased from memory for now.  It is almost NEVER a good thing to see the ideal set up on any model beyond 7days out let alone 9-10days out.  Between now and the 17th-18th there is a ton of energy that is going to be swirling around the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere ove NA, the Canadian maritime, and the eastern Pac all of which interacts to give us our weather.  The timing and positioning is still so all over the place from run to run that we are still going to get drastic differences in the surface depiction, (ie: Frankzilla to weak wave to nuttin).  What we have to focus on is that the pattern as a whole is setting up as a good one if not great one for systems to develop.  With so much energy involved in the STJ and Polar jet any subtle changes to the positioning of those energies relative to each other the wider the differences the further out you go.  Just look at the differences between the 18z GFS from last night vs the 06z from this morning.  

18z 500mb GFS: negatively tilted trough with compact closed Upper level Low in perfect position over the DELMARVA set up a Miller A system


6z 500mb GFS this am: Positively tilted trough broad closed upper level low over the plans leading to weak miller B set up at the surface


These same drastic 500mb changes that lead to even more drastic surface solns are occurring within the Euro op and Canadian Op.  Even more impressive is just how wide the spread is on the Euro and GEFS ensembles.  There is ZERO consensus on this set up as of now.  Heck the exact nature and details of the clipper system passing through on Wed are still slightly different between models, although a general consensus is forming.  The main thing to focus on is we are out of the dreaded Nov/DEC pattern.  We are headed into an extremely favorable pattern for snow storms huge, big, and little; however, with such an active STJ, and an amplified northern branch we still need to time things right.  

With confidence in the general set up, ie: the state of teleconnections and positioning of various blocking features for the LR, I will be focusing on the timeframe between days 5-7 on the modeling for evidence of one of these many "chances" truly coming together.  Im sorry if I sound...well vanilla right now, but I hate getting caught up in the hysteria and over analysis of individual model runs when a fantasy storm shows up only to be let down.  

So for me I remain confident that we see above normal snowfall for the season.  I remain confident that our first measurable snowfall, and chances at more than one, will occur in January.  With that is if needed I will make a first call snow map for the clipper mid week by Sunday.  Right now my general thoughs on that is points east of the city have a chance at covering the ground with snow, but most likely dusting to small measurable amounts.

[amugs]

Even though it's ten days away and in fantasy land if this storm does not come to fruition Math is our new scapegoat. Sacrifice him to the forum Gods.

ABSOLUTELY!!

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS shows the big coastal storm still but it went out to sea. This is fairly typical of the GFS as it has a progressive bias. Honestly, I would be more concerned if it did not show a storm at all. The fact it's still there says A LOT about this potential.

[Guest]

The 12z GFS shows the big coastal storm still but it went out to sea. This is fairly typical of the GFS as it has a progressive bias. Honestly, I would be more concerned if it did not show a storm at all. The fact it's still there says A LOT about this potential.

...and it has it now 1 day later going from a 980 low off the Delmarva to 960 at our latitude on the next frame 12 hours later.  Just misses OTS..

That's a BOMB of a storm verbatim.

[algae888]

Should be interesting to see who wins the fight the mammoth block or the superhuman El Nino. I would lean towards El Nino. I don't feel we will be dealing with too much suppression in our area maybe for New England. Interesting times ahead

[nutleyblizzard]

The 12z GFS shows the big coastal storm still but it went out to sea. This is fairly typical of the GFS as it has a progressive bias. Honestly, I would be more concerned if it did not show a storm at all. The fact it's still there says A LOT about this potential.

...and it has it now 1 day later going from a 980 low off the Delmarva to 960 at our latitude on the next frame 12 hours later.  Just misses OTS..

That's a BOMB of a storm verbatim.

GFS actually shows 2 bombs that just misses us. Could of been a heck of a run if it wasn't for the model's progressive nature. Very interested in seeing the ensembles.

[Frank_Wx]

There most likely will not be two storms of that magnitude 1 day apart from each other. To me this indicates the GFS is not handling the upper short wave energy very well. During El Nino seasons, I expect the GFS to poorly handle both polar and southern jet streams.

Who remembers during Boxing Day 2010 how the models had lost the storm and brought it back within 3 days? This COULD be a similar situation since both time periods are featuring -NAO. Blocking patterns are very tricky and models have lots of difficulty handling them.

I can see models being inconsistent with this storm for the next 5 days. Then they'll recognize the block and the ridging in the west (hopefully the ridging does not go flat) and they'll bring a Miller A up the coast.

That is how I am seeing this play out unless one of two things happen:

1. We lose the -NAO block and/or it trends weaker

2. The ridge spike in the west does NOT happen because the Aleutian trough tracks too far east turning the flow zonal and the downstream pattern progressive.

3. The 50/50 low gets consumed from the PV and we struggle to get cold air to the coast.

These are 3 key things we have to make sure are PRESENT in ALL 500mb maps when analyzing this potential.

[snow247]

Well said, Frank.

[Frank_Wx]

GEFS

[amugs]

GEFS coming around to what has been stated here for the past week - catching up on the pattern - the evolution is happening and my only wish it was 36 hours away instead of 9 days. Tis from twit



People will need to be calm as we get closer and DO NOT LIVE AND DIE BY EACH OP RUN - ESPECIALLY THE GFS.

Great indicators are there so ..............we wait and let em say this look at what happens this weekend and teh clipper this week for how thing splay out next weekend - by the time Jan 20th comes around that block may have a MONSTER 50/50 below it. Talk about a 180 in the pattern.

[amugs]

Umm - also need to look at how the Clipper Storm will evolve - looks like a good coating to 2" type of storm and is trending to a poss 1-3" type for Wednesday - dont discount these little bugger and take one eye OFF the eye candy (weather prn)for NEXT weekend.

[nutleyblizzard]

Umm - also need to look at how the Clipper Storm will evolve - looks like a good coating to 2" type of storm and is trending to a poss 1-3" type for Wednesday - dont discount these little bugger and take one eye of teh eye candy for NEXT weekend.

So true, mugs. Clippers can be very sneaky and unpredictable. I know its easier said than done but one storm at a time!

[Frank_Wx]

The Clipper is being talked about in the January thread and will get its own thread later tonight or tomorrow.

[amugs]

Clipper A little to quick on the Euro - doesn't dig and stays more North



Euro not known for these clippers sad to say but even a dusting of white gold will due at this stage right?

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z EURO for the big storm does not dig the northern energy (which is a huge PV lobe) enough to phase in with the southern energy. The storm ends up out to sea. The key players that I identified are circled on the map below. We're still in business.

[Frank_Wx]

[amugs]

Frank,

After watching the Euro run I like we were are at - not in the sweet spot but the players are there and the pattern evolution is there as you pointed out here. I do not feel teh models will have a good handle until we get past this weekend and what happens with this clipper which I know for a fact the euro has always had trouble with as I stated above. HUGE POTENTIAL.

[nutleyblizzard]

Even with the failed phase by the Euro, I'm still feeling confident that this storm will happen Frank. That 500mb map is a powder keg waiting to go off!

[amugs]

At the end of the EURO run on Monday Jan 18th every state has an area below freezing as the 32* line is in the Gulf just off the coast - wow! CONUS in the freezer!!

[amugs]

THERMALS ALERT - FEB 2015 INCOMING HERE!!





See what I was saying and yuo can sure as heck bet we will have squall lines moving through with so many lobes of energy swinging off teh PAC - on , two or three of them will produce.

[skinsfan1177]

At the end of the EURO run on Monday Jan 18th every state has an area below freezing as the 32* line is in the Gulf just off the coast - wow! CONUS in the freezer!!

In your opinion mugs does it look like their are many storms after the 18th as well

[nutleyblizzard]

THERMALS ALERT - FEB 2015 INCOMING HERE!!





See what I was saying and yuo can sure as heck bet we will have squall lines moving through with so many lobes of energy swinging off teh PAC - on , two or three of them will produce.

Wow! Models are all over the place. Not only can they figure out any potential storm tracks, the temp profiles have changed too. Just yesterday there was concern for temperatures with next weekends storm. That map looks cold enough to me.

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