Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

Great signs here with this run tonight.Goodnight.

[Snow88]

GEFS has the first storm warm but a good storm signal for storm 2. A lot of members near the benchmark. Plenty of sleepless nights possible coming up this January.

[Snow88]

0z CMC ensembles also show a coastal while the op run doesn't even show anything.

[Snow88]

Weak cutter on the Euro for storm 1. Ugly for everyone except for NNE.

[Snow88]

0z Euro has a coastal for Jan 11-12. Now the GFS and Euro has a coastal during that timeframe along with the GGEM ensembles, GEFS and EPS. Don't worry about temps this far out.

[HectorO]

I really hope there isn't snow on the 13th. I have a flight to take to FL on the 14th. I don't need delays.

[skinsfan1177]

Their is Alot of time and trends is What needs to be watched I think a key component is how strong the NAO becomes. Gfs was definetly colder than prior run. So hopefully it continues that way. That's the first storm.

[NjWeatherGuy]

6z GFS...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=252&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160103+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[sroc4]

If Im being honest, I am not a big fan to the trends in the ensembles overnight for storm number one, Jan 8th-10th.  Because this system sets the stage for storm number two I will not comment on storm two until system one is a little more concrete.  Although I am still monitoring them, I am not giving much stock in any one run of any of the operationals at this time.  Even the Euro Op overnight was night and day to its operational run from yesterday from 500mb to the surface.  That said last nights Euro actually came in more in line with its ensemble forecast from last night.  There are still differences between models and their ensembles that need to be ironed out so the final soln is not locked in yet but here is the latest trend that I see.  I will use the Euro ensembles to illustrate my thoughts.    

All images are depicting the time frame of Jan 8th 12z:
Starting at 500mb:  
Jan 1st
" />
Jan 2nd
" />
Jan 3rd
" />

Now the surface:
Jan 1st
" />
Jan 2nd
" />
Jan 3rd
" />

We will have to see where this goes.  I am not looking past it entirely just yet, but as of this morning the first system is losing steam in my eyes; although, it never was a strong threat to begin with.  I am not going to comment on the second system yet because this first one sets the stage to the second. Happy Sunday!!

[frank 638]

good write-up yeah looks like the first storm it will be rain but the second one hopefully it will be good for us

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I hate hearing the truth. Basically Hellnino scroos us one more time. I know what you're saying that storm #1 was never that big a threat especially for the coast, but it sounds like no one, (see HV and NWNJ) is going to see any frozen precip.

Oh well at least temperatures are now near normal.

[weatherwatchermom]

Wow what a great write up scott, you are so clear in your explanation...it really helped me(just a snow lover with no background in weather forecasting)to understand!! Thank you!!  

[weatherwatchermom]

Vort closes off

Trying to learn so I have a quest..the vort is the circle that is closed at 540 right...sorry if I asked in wrong place...tx

[Frank_Wx]

Vort closes off

Trying to learn so I have a quest..the vort is the circle that is closed at 540 right...sorry if I asked in wrong place...tx

That is correct. When a 500mb vort closes off it's less likely to follow the jet stream out to sea. It's also indicative of a very strong piece of upper energy, so any phase would result in a pretty big storm. Lastly, there could already be a surface low reflection under a closed off 500mb vort.

[Frank_Wx]

Storm #1 comes at a time when the pattern is going through a reload. If you remember in my last Mo Mo, I mentioned the end of week 1 of beginning of week 2 there will be a couple of normal to above normal days as the initial trough lifts out. Storm #1 falls in that time frame so we're likely to see mainly rain from that system. However, some models try to deepen a low off the coast and bring snow to interior sections or high elevation areas. It's not completely dead yet for snow chances, but I MUCH like Stoem #2 better (11th-13th). We need to make sure there is enough wave spacing between these two storms so Storm #2 can amplify.

A lot to like about the setup for Storm #2. Even the EURO jumped on board last night.

[Guest]

I'm re-posting this from the banter thread in case no one reads it there because I'm pretty sure that a lot of fellow weenies feel like I do..................If our pattern change is going to deliver storms that bring us rain and upper 30's like storm number 1 does, than I'd like to go back to December. At least I can golf and fish. I hope Frank and the crawl on the homepage are right because guys like me, and CP have reached our patience limit.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm re-posting this from the banter thread in case no one reads it there because I'm pretty sure that a lot of fellow weenies feel like I do..................If our pattern change is going to deliver storms that bring us rain and upper 30's like storm number 1 does, than I'd like to go back to December.  At least I can golf and fish.  I hope Frank and the crawl on the homepage are right because guys like me, and CP have reached our patience limit.

People are getting away from my original thoughts and turning them into what I perceive as reality. My Mo Mo from last week ended by giving you my timeline to the pattern change. Here it is again:

Week 4 December: Old pattern regime continues. Expect to continue seeing above normal temperatures.

Week 1 January: Pattern transition begins due to the pulsing MJO into phase 7 / progression of the Scandinavian Ridge. Periods of below normal temperature days mixed with a day or two of slightly above normal.

Week 2 January: The strongest wave of energy transfer from the Troposphere to the Stratosphere should occur and an upper Strat PV displacement is probable. A blocking pattern over the Arctic in conjunction with an active STJ could result in our first significant east coast winter storm event of the season.

Week 3 January: Another period of relaxation is possible depending on whether or not the blocking pattern has staying power. That said, the development of the Aleutian trough in week 2 should keep higher heights confined to western NA. So we could see a pattern that looks closer to week 1 of January. At this point, the Stratospheric PV should be displaced but Tropospheric changes will not arise until later on.

Week 4 January: Full scale pattern change should come to fruition this week. If memory serves me correctly, last winter we saw our pattern change around this time frame as well. By this point, I think we'll see a sustained -AO thank to PV displacement along with a +PNA. Depending on exactly where the Strat PV tracks to will dictate the evolution of the NAO. We're already seeing the QBO trend toward neutral levels. If this trend continues and the blocking pattern the 2nd week of January comes to fruition, it's possible the NAO goes negative much sooner than expected. For now, I think it will go negative around week 4 of January or week 1 of February.

If you notice, I said PATTERN TRANSITION takes place week 1 of January. Which is true, we'll see below normal temps in the beginning of the week with a return to seasonable by the weekend. I even mention there will be a day or two of above normal, which is likely around the time Storm #1 happens between the 8th-9th.

For week #2, I talk about the blocking pattern and how that could deliver our first widespread snow event of the season, hence the scroll. We're seeing Tropical Forcing driven Pacific blocking that will bring Arcric air into the CONUS. I'll talk more about this in tomorrow's Mo Mo.

A true pattern change to sustained cold / snowy weather is not likely until week 4 of January. I remain confident in this prediction.

[docstox12]

I've been thinking myself for weeks now that since the abnormally warm Nov and Dec that Jan would be a transition month with just minor snow.Still thinking the big snow comes mid to late Feb and early Mar this year as a result.Plenty of time it's only Jan 3rd so all is going to plan.

Steady as she goes according to our Leader Frank.

[hyde345]

Its amazing how each model run of the GFS has a completely different solution after 7 days. I wonder what the 18z is going to show.

[weatherwatchermom]

Vort closes off

Trying to learn so I have a quest..the vort is the circle that is closed at 540 right...sorry if I asked in wrong place...tx

That is correct. When a 500mb vort closes off it's less likely to follow the jet stream out to sea. It's also indicative of a very strong piece of upper energy, so any phase would result in a pretty big storm. Lastly, there could already be a surface low reflection under a closed off 500mb vort.

Thank you Frank!!

[sroc4]

Wow what a great write up scott, you are so clear in your explanation...it really helped me(just a snow lover with no background in weather forecasting)to understand!! Thank you!!  

Your so welcome.

[Frank_Wx]

There are a few scenarios shown on modeling in regards to how the Day 9-10 storm could play out. Not one scenario can be taken seriously at this time. Here's a look at H5 from 12z EURO in Day 8-9. The first system is most likely to cut, perhaps spawning a weak low off the coast. Most importantly, it's going to help bring the baroclinic zone S&E.

How the southern and northern vorts interact, if at all, will depend on how quickly storm 1 can push north-northeast into Canada. Also, and probably most importantly, the northern stream energy needs to dig into the CONUS instead of cutting off (or phasing) in western Canada. A phase with polar or PV energy will leave the southern vort out to dry and would likely result in a storm track to our west since the SE ridge will be able to amplify again.

[sroc4]

Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

[Frank_Wx]

Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

The control run shows a Godzilla. Hopefully as the week goes on models trend in this direction.

[sroc4]

Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

The control run shows a Godzilla. Hopefully as the week goes on models trend in this direction.

Weather porn.

[Frank_Wx]

Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

Ensemble means have such a nice look. Holy cow. Cross Polar Flow city!!

[jmanley32]

Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

The control run shows a Godzilla. Hopefully as the week goes on models trend in this direction. Omg wow

Weather porn.

[Sponsored content]