Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:48 pm

EURO = hit, CMC = hit, GEFS = hit, watch out, this is gonna be a long week, soon time for a thread.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:12 pm

Yep, and the timing looks to be more 18th/19th now, which means I may get home in time for it! Still lots of time to watch but it's been a long long time since models "sorta" converged on a big threat like this.

by Snowfall Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:23 pm

No local met will even entertain the saying of a big storm

by **snow247** Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:25 pm

Snowfall wrote:No local met will even entertain the saying of a big storm

And don't expect them to until at least Wednesday or Thursday (if a storm is still being shown). They don't want to cause hype then look bad if nothing happens.

by **snow247** Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:26 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO = hit, CMC = hit, GEFS = hit, watch out, this is gonna be a long week, soon time for a thread.

I'd say if the models are still showing it by Monday then yes we should give it it's own thread.

by justin92 Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:55 pm

Yes don't expect the mlk storm to get attention until late week especially after last years model mistake that left a lot of mets jobs on the line

by **amugs** Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:15 pm

justin92 wrote:Yes don't expect the mlk storm to get attention until late week especially after last years model mistake that left a lot of mets jobs on the line

Could not agree more they will tip toe through the flower bed of tulips but we have NUMEROUS waves in th epipe line.
Al remember about a week ago u said there was nothing in th eLR and I said to you once the envelope opens and we get the models ens more so to see the pattern evolve we would see the stj kick in?? The AL vortex if death is getting brought from the dark side to where it should be and thus allowing g the pna to go POS heights build into BC and EPO to go N with a Neg trough in the SE giving the Mid Atlantic and NE lots of opportunities for ...........................SNOW!!!

I have a feeling that this stretch is going to be very memorable and WE ARE DUE FOR A MLK SPECIAL!! ....and a hecs at that.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:17 pm

GEFS LOOK TO SPLIT/ DISLODGE PV look at this beauty

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:48 pm

snow247 wrote:
Snowfall wrote:No local met will even entertain the saying of a big storm

And don't expect them to until at least Wednesday or Thursday (if a storm is still being shown). They don't want to cause hype then look bad if nothing happens.

Nick Gregory touched on the possibility for stormy weather next weekend...just a quick comment last night...

by **snow247** Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:15 pm

18z GFS out to 144 for the big storm chance period, already looks different from the last run lol.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:20 pm

The gfs breaks off a piece of the PV and tries to dig it into the CONUS. The euro doesn't even have this..

by **snow247** Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The gfs breaks off a piece of the PV and tries to dig it into the CONUS. The euro doesn't even have this..

Just shows how none of the models have a good idea on the upcoming potential.

I guess we should just be happy that we are getting into an active period to say the least.

by justin92 Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:42 pm

does the 18z gfs stil have next wkends storm?

by justin92 Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:53 pm

18Z A COMPLETE MISS IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN SO IM NOT MAD

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 09, 2016 6:29 pm

And it will come back in a day or two. If it stayed ud have to b concerned.

by justin92 Sat Jan 09, 2016 6:35 pm

It still may be on the esambules

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:36 pm

Yea 18z GFS kinda lost it completely lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:58 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Yea 18z GFS kinda lost it completely lol

I wouldn't sweat it not this far out, losing it is usually a good thing and we usually see it come back with a vengence. As frank said there are so many pieces of energy the gfs and other models but gfs seems the most to not be able to figure out what to do. You would think a huge super computer could do so but I guess we are still far away from flawless models.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:57 pm

We're 200 hours out. Everyone enjoy the weekend and come back Wednesday when we have proper sampling of the upper level energy.

by Bkdude Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We're 200 hours out. Everyone enjoy the weekend and come back Wednesday when we have proper sampling of the upper level energy.

So in other words do not obbsess too much

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:11 pm

I think the main problem is people are over analyzing individual OP model runs. I've repeated this numerous times: blocking patterns are a nightmare for OP models to handle. It's even worse when you have an active STJ.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Eps_z500a_nh_35

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Eps_z500a_nh_35

The 12z EPS Mean leading up to the 17th-19th time frame continues to look favorable for cyclogenesis formation. We have a block east of Greenland, a west-based -NAO block, and a 50/50. Where we can use work is in the PAC. There's tons of energy crashing into the west coast muting the ridge. To be honest, I think since we're still over 200 hours out this is model noise and as we get closer we'll see more consolidation of these short waves and a better western ridge.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Gefs_z500a_noram_34

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Gefs_z500a_noram_34

Here are the 12z GEFS Mean. There's not a whole lot of difference between them and the EPS. The trough on the east may not be as amplified but for being over 200 hours out this is pretty damn close. Again, we need the western ridge to spike at an ideal time. It's critical the NPAC trough stays as far west as possible. Given where the nehative 200 hPa CHI Anomalies are setting up late next week, I think the trough will be closer to where the EPS have it.

Use the ensembles. There will be so much OP model run volatility it's almost pointless even watching them. Not to mention the upper energy is poorly sampled. Heck, we may have to wait until the Wednesday clipper is out of the way. Maybe then the models will figure out the pattern downstream.

12/27/10 gave the models so much trouble I remember waking up Christmas Eve and the 12z GFS was the first model to show a hit after all the models were taking the storm out to sea. Reiterating that models take time to recognize a -NAO.
Analog1888, Dsnowx53, ColdDustN

by chief7 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:31 pm

Frank any concern about the indices I know the AO is trending positive after the 16th

by chief7 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:34 pm

The NAO is also going positive on that date and the pna is also gone positive after that date

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:37 pm

The AO and NAO are not going positive after those dates according to 500mb

by chief7 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:44 pm

Ok gotcha brother

by **amugs** Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:10 pm

Look at this cold anamoly map by the Euro control fir jan 19 to 23 , IF we have snow cover then take these down a few more degrees! Off the bell.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Eps_control_t2anom_conus_11(29)

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Eps_control_t2anom_conus_11(29)

by **amugs** Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:29 pm

VENTRICLE FROM TWIT I JUST SAW WOW! ! THIS GW has done a 180 here, mid Dec he was saying wintwr cancel, 1998 now this OMG!!

Anybody have these, i have to dig them up, control shows this but Jamstec made the call ar end of Dec remember ??

Chief 7 posted when they came out, that call would be the biggest flip maybe evaaaasa!!

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