Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **amugs** Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:10 pm

Look at this cold anamoly map by the Euro control fir jan 19 to 23 , IF we have snow cover then take these down a few more degrees! Off the bell.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 14 Eps_control_t2anom_conus_11(29)

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 14 Eps_control_t2anom_conus_11(29)

by **amugs** Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:29 pm

VENTRICLE FROM TWIT I JUST SAW WOW! ! THIS GW has done a 180 here, mid Dec he was saying wintwr cancel, 1998 now this OMG!!

Anybody have these, i have to dig them up, control shows this but Jamstec made the call ar end of Dec remember ??

Chief 7 posted when they came out, that call would be the biggest flip maybe evaaaasa!!

by justin92 Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:45 pm

The gfs is showing a rain noreaster does that make sense?

by **snow247** Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:48 pm

justin92 wrote:The gfs is showing a rain noreaster does that make sense?

Being that it's over 200 hours out, it's really useless to look at precip types at this juncture. 00z GFS looks quite better than 18z and it has a storm signal, that's all we need to know for now.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:52 pm

snow247 wrote:
justin92 wrote:The gfs is showing a rain noreaster does that make sense?

Being that it's over 200 hours out, it's really useless to look at precip types at this juncture. 00z GFS looks quite better than 18z and it has a storm signal, that's all we need to know for now.

Exactly. Tomorrow we'll get a new set of solutions.

by justin92 Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:53 pm

Okay thanks I feel a little better ☺

by **snow247** Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:00 am

00z Euro was just a hair away from a crippling blizzard for us around day 8. Really close.

Storm signal = still there

by **snow247** Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:01 am

Euro also has a separate smaller event under 200 hours. Getting closer.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:38 am

The euro was insane 950mb bomb even way off shore gives us verbatim 6 to 10 around nyc including the first system. The winds are insane over ocean gusts to 119kts! Yes I know it's surface and they aren't go help now but we have seen enough of these insane bombs especially being on the euro does get me thinking we could b in for a possibly historic storm.

by **Snow88** Sun Jan 10, 2016 2:55 am

Euro wasn't bad at all. It was really close to a big snowstorm. Places still get a decent amount of snow.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:11 am

Snow88 wrote:Euro wasn't bad at all. It was really close to a big snowstorm. Places still get a decent amount of snow.

verbatim if that storm had been closer I can only imagine the totals it would have output. What's cool us moving up in time starts from day 8 now.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:05 am

I mentioned the other day what the 3 keys are to getting a snowstorm midmonth. Latest models are abandoning a western ridge (one of my keys). The flow out west is too fast, crashing short waves into the coast and muting the ridge. I think over the next 4 days, once the Clipper departs, we'll see better consolidation of the short waves and a more robust looking western ridge. Reason? 200 hPa CHI Anomalies are forecasted to go negative around 160W by Wednesday. This argues for a trough south of Alaska and a ridge over the west coast. We'll see if it comes to fruition. I still believe February will be our best month to see consistent snow threats since a SSWE is likely to occur by the end of this month.

by **sroc4** Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:22 am

Im sorry Frank. I started a thread for this threat. I spent a lot of time on the write up outlining everything you have been and don't want it to get lost. Figure we are right at the 7day mark..or so.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:24 am

The EPS has been improving in the PAC. If anything, it bumps the GOA low west a bit late in the run(00z). Which in turn lets the PNA/EPO look a bit better. I feel it will continue to improve as it catches on to the trop forcing out by the dateline

Pulls the Low in the PAC west allowing the heights to build on the WC.
GFS is way to progressive with this pattern IMO.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 14 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 14 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9

by Guest Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:26 am

Just ran through all the medium and long range op models (I know don't trust the op's.) They all show multiple storm threats after Tuesday but ALL offshore.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:23 pm

Fwiw JMA haha

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=274326

by chief7 Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:17 pm

Has anybody seen or heard about the European monthlys I believe it should have came out yesterday?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:39 pm

Dr. Cohen confirmed on Twitter what models are outputting at Day 10 is in fact a SSWE. Great news and big kudos to Isotherm and others who've accurately called this. Here are some graphics:

70N-90N Day 10 warmth from NASA

30hPa is finally making the climb from deep cold to at least the standard

10hPa displacement from 12z GFS:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 14 NH_HGT_10mb_360

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 14 NH_TMP_10mb_360

This will setup February to be a special month

by **jake732** Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:15 am

Who the hell can wait till February??!!

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:25 am

I know it's tough for us snow lovers to wait until February but after record breaking warmth in November and December, it was logical that January would be a transition month.And after Nov and Dec, we are lucky to have these positive changes coming for Feb.

Also saw that NWS now has the clipper snow Tues-Weds, and a 40% chance for snow on the weekend.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:41 am

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:36 pm

nick gregory mentioned for sat nite the rain could change to snow even to the coast Question

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:51 pm

frank 638 wrote:nick gregory mentioned for sat nite the rain could change to snow even to the coast

Change to what? Snow?

Oh yeah the white stuff that use to fall during winter. We shall see.

by Guest Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:25 pm

Parts of the central and northern CA coast are expecting 8 to 10" of rain the next 8 days. i guess the Hell Nino pumping that pineapple express of moisture into the west coast continues into the foreseeable future. This will not allow amplification of the western ridge anytime in the near future. Or at least the next 10 days.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:55 pm

I will have a long range writeup out tomorrow afternoon. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event will officially take place the end of this month. It's safe to say the full-scale pattern change will still take place this week - bringing normal to below normal weather. And let's make this clear...just because a pattern change is not bringing snow does NOT mean it's not a pattern change. We're no longer expected to see temps between 50-70 degrees for the forseeable future. The snow will come when it wants. I think odds increase to see snow in February due to the SSWE and the chance to see sustained and true blocking. Not this transient crap like this weekend.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:02 pm

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:11 pm

frank i agree with u just like u said of the new year we will get a pattern change and its going to be slow process we finally have the cold but we will get the snow from lat jan to feb and march .i remember winter of 2003 or 2004 we had a snowless dec and jan then 2 nd week of feb we had good snow storms lets be patient we will get our storms.thanks frank i look forward to see ur outlook hopefully its goodnews

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