Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

[frank 638]

frank i agree with u just like u said of the new year we will get a pattern change and its going to be slow process we finally  have the cold but we will get the snow from lat jan to feb and march .i remember winter of 2003 or 2004 we had a snowless dec and jan then 2 nd week of feb we had good snow storms lets be patient  we will get our storms.thanks frank i look forward to see ur outlook hopefully its goodnews

[snow247]

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

Wow.

[sroc4]

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

I still think my back yard sees 50+ for the season which is about twice normal. And no I'm not just hoping. Remember IMBY I am only 2" behind last year at this time. If I can measure anything tomorrow night from the clipper I'll be even less so. I had total of 2" before Jan 24th last year. If you boys want to throw in the towel please do. But I cont to stay confident.

[Guest]

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

I feel better, not because our leader said the above, but because twice in his posts in the last 30 minutes he expressed anger at the weather. He's human after all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[sroc4]

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

I feel better, not because our leader said the above, but because twice in his posts in the last 30 minutes he expressed anger at the weather.  He's human after all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lol

[Frank_Wx]

I still believe Central Park will record above average snowfall this season.

I feel better, not because our leader said the above, but because twice in his posts in the last 30 minutes he expressed anger at the weather.  He's human after all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My mom asked while I was eating furiously tonight. I told her the weather models did it.

It does anger me when models are locked into something for over 10 days to only change their minds within 5 days. This is where pattern recognition becomes important. I should have known without a SSWE any -NAO that forms is likely to be transient in natute. Ugh, the growing pains.

[Vinnydula]

Gfs?

[snow247]

Gfs?

Rolling but not out far enough yet, will let you know.

[Dunnzoo]

GFS OP has Low just off the coast. Warm and rain for NYC, NNJ, LI but good snows for NYS and NE

[Math23x7]

Earlier in the evening, I saw this graph of the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 region.  Notice how it has spiked over the last week.  Not a good sign...

[skinsfan1177]

So how does it look after this weekend as far as tele's go. And pattern?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Earlier in the evening, I saw this graph of the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 region.  Notice how it has spiked over the last week.  Not a good sign...

A bad sign indeed. Not happy.

[Guest]

Earlier in the evening, I saw this graph of the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 region.  Notice how it has spiked over the last week.  Not a good sign...

I saw some people were expecting a secondary spike this time of winter no???? HELL NINO

[jmanley32]

In all reality I think we forget Franks initial take which was a steady pattern change around the last week of Janu 1st of Feb which would be 25th-5th, that being said the face we had a storm signal a week before that was cool but being let down we should remember Frank warned us. Do not like that spike but lets hope its temporary. I am not giving up and there WILL be a big storm before March, I want all our snow now through end February, not to much into March. Anyways still waiting but impatiently lol

[jmanley32]

Frank also first said a Godzilla around the 29th, do not know if he still believes this or not but never in his LR initial writeup did he mention anything good for this time frame. I keep trying to hold this close because Frank you do a excellent job, sroc mugs, al etc at keeping us informed and not hyping anything. Though admit it we all get a bit excited when we see a crazy few operational runs. Its impossible not to.

[skinsfan1177]

I putting this in this thread I guess. Where are we heading as far tele's , storm threats, cold air wise after this weekend. I'm reading on other sites that week 3 and 4 of Jan don't look good

[Guest]

I putting this in 88th this thread I guess. Where are we heading as far tele's , storm threats, cold air wise after this weekend. I'm reading on other sites that week 3 and 4 of Jan don't look good

Not a surprise!!!

[amugs]

There is so much happening in our atmosphere with dynamics that LR is a joke right now. We have convection over teh EPAC with a Polar Jet to the North that wants to dive in and Death of Vortx in teh NPAC that is stationary with a "bootleg" block that is going to dissapear at this time. Teleconnections do not look good going forward from today's runs overall but that is not to say we cant get anything - temps look to be to bn for this period as per teh euro weeklies.

Teh PV is foretasted to dislodge or split in teh stratosphere - guys in another forum where talking about this as Frank has said by teh end of teh month - the HL Blocking we saw and teh incredible warmth associated with ti si precursor to a dislogement or split of the PV days afterwards. Still time here and I remind yuo how teh LR models looked in late Dec around Xmass for teh 1st week of Jan = +6-8* and look what we had the and this week was +4-6 - take them with a grain of salt please.

The third shortwave coming out of teh SW is another one to keep an eye on as for teh pattern change will be in better shape.

Keep the Faith and enjoy the snow coming this afternoon and tonight!!

[Guest]

There is so much happening in our atmosphere with dynamics that LR is a joke right now. We have convection over teh EPAC with a Polar Jet to the North that wants to dive in and Death of Vortx in teh NPAC that is stationary with a "bootleg" block that is going to dissapear at this time. Teleconnections do not look good going forward from today's runs overall but that is not to say we cant get anything - temps look to be to bn for this period as per teh euro weeklies.

Teh PV is foretasted to dislodge or split in teh stratosphere - guys in another forum where talking about this as Frank has said by teh end of teh month - the HL Blocking we saw and teh incredible warmth associated with ti si precursor to a dislogement or split of the PV days afterwards. Still time here and I remind yuo how teh LR models looked in late Dec around Xmass for teh 1st week of Jan = +6-8* and look what we had the and this week was +4-6 - take them with a grain of salt please.

The third shortwave coming out of teh SW is another one to keep an eye on as for teh pattern change will be in better shape.

Keep the Faith and enjoy the snow coming this afternoon and tonight!!

Thanks for the write-up. By the way what snow later?

[amugs]

There is so much happening in our atmosphere with dynamics that LR is a joke right now. We have convection over teh EPAC with a Polar Jet to the North that wants to dive in and Death of Vortx in teh NPAC that is stationary with a "bootleg" block that is going to dissapear at this time. Teleconnections do not look good going forward from today's runs overall but that is not to say we cant get anything - temps look to be to bn for this period as per teh euro weeklies.

Teh PV is foretasted to dislodge or split in teh stratosphere - guys in another forum where talking about this as Frank has said by teh end of teh month - the HL Blocking we saw and teh incredible warmth associated with ti si precursor to a dislogement or split of the PV days afterwards. Still time here and I remind yuo how teh LR models looked in late Dec around Xmass for teh 1st week of Jan = +6-8* and look what we had the and this week was +4-6 - take them with a grain of salt please.

The third shortwave coming out of teh SW is another one to keep an eye on as for teh pattern change will be in better shape.

Keep the Faith and enjoy the snow coming this afternoon and tonight!!

Thanks for the write-up.  By the way what snow later?

Meaning a squall line tonight around 6ish - 8ish sweeping through - if teh HRRR holds with this idea

[Frank_Wx]

Despite what you may have read, El Nino is NOT strengthening



It's quite clear the warm anonalies continue to disipate. The reason why ENSO region 1+2 warmed recently is because of the WWB that took place this past week. Naturally, water flows from west to east. Those warm waters in the central ENSO region simply flowed to the east. And don't forget, that part of the PAC is shallow compared to central regions so anonalies are inflated.

[amugs]

MLK Special??
Euro says so and who gets it LI - BS!!

[Snow88]

GEFS are interesting. Need the ridge to pop a little more in the west.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html

[Guest]

GEFS are interesting. Need the ridge to pop a little more in the west.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html

With the exception of 1 all other slides show the storm affecting the southern mid atlantic/deep south and Cape Cod. We get screwed again, but this time to the south because of too much cold. Ironic isn't it.

[Guest]

Looking at the model runs there appears to be 3 storm threats. Monday looks cold enough but OTS. The 22nd (sroc4's date for a big storm) looks like too far n/e and no high to the north. The 29th (Frank's date for a Godzilla) big storm with no cold air around like the one for this Saturday.

[algae888]

This from don s. a well respected and knowledgeable poster from another board concerning the rest of jan.

"However, if one looks out to the Pacific, some of the guidance is suggesting that the SOI will rebound to positive and possibly strongly positive values within 10 days. During strong or super El Niño events, that development can coincide with the development of strong ridging over some part of Ontario or Quebec.

 

The ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles are in agreement about the development of just such ridging during the 240-hour to 288-hour timeframe. If that occurs, what should have been the locking in of a colder pattern on account of the blocking—something I had expected—could wind up being a more variable pattern with shots of cold alternating with warmer conditions from the Plains States to the East. The Middle Atlantic region, New England, and Quebec might have the highest probability of seeing net warm anomalies in the extended range if such a pattern develops. This issue will need to be revisited in coming days.

 

Finally, on the stratospheric front, a strong Wave 2 pulse is likely to develop over the next 10-15 days. However, it’s far too soon to be sure whether the wave will have the amplitude necessary to trigger a sudden stratospheric warming event. The ECMWF argues against such an event through the next 10 days, but 10 days is beyond a reasonably accurate forecasting horizon. Such events are only forecast with reasonable accuracy within a few days of their onset, so aside from noting the forecast development of the wave, more data will be needed to reach any conclusions about the likelihood of such an event. The infrequency of such events—about one every two winters—argues for holding off on conclusions until more data is available.

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