Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Snow88]

0z GFS is just offshore with next weekends storm

[Snow88]

0z GGEM is also weak and OTS

[Guest]

You gotta know when to hold them Know when to fold them. Kenny Rodgers. I love you guys but this is the worst winter forecast EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! An absolute disaster. Hell Nino wins!!! Why do we/you keep holding onto snow. Every long/medium range forecast has BUSTED. tHE NONLY FORERCAST that has worked out is that of rain. Worst winter ever, with sooooooooooo much promise!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro now shows the storm for the 23rd. Went OTS, but came close to a phase. If we can get that western ridge to build look out!

[nutleyblizzard]

6z GFS tantalizes us with a near miss for next weekends storm potential. Has the low meandering off the Virginia capes with moderate snows reaching southern Jersey before going out to sea and blowing up. Interesting for sure.

[Snow88]

We might be in trouble if we don't get next weekends storm.

[nutleyblizzard]

We might be in trouble if we don't get next weekends storm.

Yea we need this one bad. Not just for a numbers aspect, but for our own mental well being.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm next weekend is ALL dependent on the western ridge / pacific flow. If the ridge collapses before H5 closes off, then the storm will head out to sea. Today's 12z GFS closes off H5 before the ridge begins rolling east, so it manages to get a coastal storm with snow to our latitude. 





Don't bother looking at temp profiles 1 week out. There is an HP to the north so I think there will be cold to work with, but it can't slide too far east. I don't want to get anyone's hopes up because these storm once we're within 5 days seem to fizzle away. We'll see how models look come Monday.

[Frank_Wx]

There's that rolling ridge, but by this point there is a surface low with heights raised over the east coast. The deep trough over the NW Atlantic is probably important to slowing the flow down and allowing consolidation of the H5 energies. It's thread the needle but doable. 

[Frank_Wx]

12z Canadian also on board with a Godzilla next weekend 

[algae888]

Frank also the 06z para euro which just came out also shows a hit that's what I'm hearing anyway I don't have access to it and last night's ukie looked good also hopefully we get one to trend our way

[amugs]

Ukie has been hot this month with our storms so we see models come into its camp is a good thing. Keys are
1. Lead vort exits quickly , helps form the 50/50 block
2. HP to the north
3. 50/50 block in the NA
4. Westend ridge holds up just enough to allow trailing vort to amp up

[Frank_Wx]

The Euro holds energy back which is a typical bias. Besides the ridge, my other concern is the Pacific energy is being modeled too strong at this juncture and we never see H5 close off. If it doesn't close off there will be no storm. Let's get this to show up Monday night into Tuesday then we can make a thread. For now, let's just watch the trends unfold.

[amugs]

Frank, I thought you were taking a break??? Like crack u ou are hooked!!! Got to love it.

[docstox12]

LOL, with that thread the needle storm next weekend on deck, poor Frank is back.

Like that line, Frank, from Godfather 3...."Just when I though I was OUT....they pull me back IN"! LOL!

Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-IkWpm7TS0

[nutleyblizzard]

I'm hearing the Canadian shows a HECS???

[Frank_Wx]

It's a drug.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm hearing the Canadian shows a HECS???

I posted it. It's nice.

[nutleyblizzard]

12z Canadian also on board with a Godzilla next weekend 

I know it's still a week away but MADONNE!!!

[amugs]

[quote="nutleyblizzard"]I'm hearing the Canadian shows a HECS???[/quote
.yes it would be. Gfs cmc and ukie all showing a good to great storm. Euro has it but as a frank said holds back the energy so we don't get an amped LP. Temper the excitement until Tuesday runs here just note that we have another storm signal for the EC.

[Frank_Wx]

The UKMET is consistent with pumping the ridge. This would surely be a hit. 

[amugs]

Syo will commit suicide cause it rains on the island or is slop verbatim hahahahaha!

[docstox12]

12z Canadian also on board with a Godzilla next weekend 

I know it's still a week away but MADONNE!!!

CP ALERT ALERT!!! Don't look at this,LOL!

[amugs]

Look at the signature rolling wave on the ukie archive that for future reference when we discuss storm paterns.

[docstox12]

Syo will commit suicide cause it rains on the island or is slop verbatim  hahahahaha!

A white straight jacket will be necessary.Wonder what size he is.

[nutleyblizzard]

The UKMET is consistent with pumping the ridge. This would surely be a hit. 

Now that taken verbatim is a textbook setup. It's all about timing though. If the shortwave slows up or the Pac ridge rolls out too quick we're screwed again. It's tempting, but I won't bite until Monday.

[amugs]

[quote="docstox12"]

Syo will commit suicide cause it rains on the island or is slop verbatim  hahahahaha!

A white straight jacket will be necessary.Wonder what size he is.[/quot

Jim chesswick

[Sponsored content]