Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:00 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

Ensemble means have such a nice look. Holy cow. Cross Polar Flow city!!

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:01 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro ensembles look amazing for the second system. And look amazing for cold thereafter.

The control run shows a Godzilla. Hopefully as the week goes on models trend in this direction. Omg wow

Weather porn.

by **frank 638** Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:05 pm

i hope so we really need a good snowstorm. frank was that the euro model for the 2nd storm

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:08 pm

frank 638 wrote:i hope so we really need a good snowstorm. frank was that the euro model for the 2nd storm

The OP models should be disregarded until we get into closer range. Rule of thumb is to use the Ensembles for storm threats over 10 days out

by **sroc4** Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:08 pm

frank 638 wrote:i hope so we really need a good snowstorm. frank was that the euro model for the 2nd storm

Euro ensembles.

by chief7 Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:08 pm

I think that first system is going to set up the 50/50 that we need

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:17 pm

12z CMC ensembles, click hour 192, very tight signal for the 12th storm, some strong ones on there

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=1&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:18 pm

10th-11th*

by **sroc4** Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:45 pm

chief7 wrote:I think that first system is going to set up the 50/50 that we need

We def may need a 50/50 low to get white not wet. Although there is still a lot of time to see it unfold. Not worried about cold air yet. The signal is there for now and that's what matters for now.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:40 pm

Let's not try to figure snow and wet at this juncture -as Frank and SROC have stated - the ENS are what to look at and we have a _EPO, +PNA and -Ao along with a slightly NEG NAO on the GEFS, EURO ENS. Look at the cluster of LP here - 9 days out peeps this is looking good if not very good in my book.

Cold air source IF this set up and indicies are correct is there.

by chief7 Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:19 pm

Mugs don't forget about the MJO going from 7 to 8

by **Snow88** Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:32 pm

GGEM big rainstorm for everyone in the Northeast. No snow at all.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:37 pm

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS is cold but out to sea. Model mayhem. My latest thought's will be posted in tomorrow's Mo Mo.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:58 pm

A good friend of mine who is majoring in Meteorology put out his winter pattern update in the form of a video. I HIGHLY suggest you all watch it. The analog package he put together in his outlooks is playing out almost perfectly. We also share similar ideas, with the brunt of winter coming in February and March.

https://youtu.be/40HHzmIHq-E

by justin92 Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:17 am

Did anyone see the latest euro or CMC?

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:39 am

Great video frank I like how he explained everything looking forward to 2 half of Jan to Feb and march party

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:40 am

And thank you for posting it

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:08 am

I'm sure Frank's Mo Mo will address this but wave spacing between the first system and second system may be an issue. If they are too cl SE together then both end up warm. I'd like to see the second system start trending about 12 hrs slower.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:16 am

sroc4 wrote:I'm sure Frank's Mo Mo will address this but wave spacing between the first system and second system may be an issue. If they are too cl SE together then both end up warm. I'd like to see the second system start trending about 12 hrs slower.

I believe it's going to be an issue

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:37 am

It appears even euro control now has a inland storm which would likely mean rain. Getting into 7 day range hoping changes.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:27 am

Im liking the 11th-13th timeframe...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=225&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_225_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160104+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Theres consistently been a signal here.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:30 am

CMC is on cool aid if you ask me, how would a 996 off Hatteras going to 986 off Cape Cod, perfect track, be an all rainstorm in January?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=168&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=180

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:41 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC is on cool aid if you ask me, how would a 996 off Hatteras going to 986 off Cape Cod, perfect track, be an all rainstorm in January?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=168&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=180

Just quickly looking at that map no cold air source. HP centered over S Montana to the west and Canadian Maritime to the NE. It looks like the source regions for the surface and mid layers are primarily SW, S, SE, and E, verbatim. Less than ideal and supports that map again verbatim.

by Guest Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:57 am

Based on what I'm reading here, and Frank's Mo Mo, and the video he posted (which was excellent) I'm going into hibernation for at least 1 week. I can't take the lack of snow and don't have the patience to wait. I'm going to try and re-charge.

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:17 am

syosnow94 wrote:Based on what I'm reading here, and Frank's Mo Mo, and the video he posted (which was excellent) I'm going into hibernation for at least 1 week. I can't take the lack of snow and don't have the patience to wait. I'm going to try and re-charge.

LOL same.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:22 am

Latest numbers:
Nino tanking in the east.
1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.
1.2 and 3 have cooled by .8 and .4*c, 3.4 and 4 by .3*c. hopefully this will cause convection to be centered near the DL and help keep the trough south of the Aleutians. olr lr maps say yes. we shall see if this can save our winter.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:31 am

algae888 wrote:Latest numbers:
Nino tanking in the east.
1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.
1.2 and 3 have cooled by .8 and .4*c, 3.4 and 4 by .3*c. hopefully this will cause convection to be centered near the DL and help keep the trough south of the Aleutians. olr lr maps say yes. we shall see if this can save our winter.

What winter?

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