Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:28 pm

I hate this hobby.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:34 pm

Frank Why is that last map you posted going out to sea and misses us

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:35 pm

Hey frank I had a busy day today I just checked out your post for a possibility of a snow storm quick question will this be a snow event even for NYC and the coast

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:37 pm

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:39 pm

I put this in Banter, but I guess it could go here too? 18z total snowfall:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Gfs_snow_depth_nyc_30

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:40 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote: Frank Why is that last map you posted going out to sea and misses us

It doesn't miss us. It tracks near the benchmark and stalls. It basically "snows itself out" because it occludes and has nowhere to go.

frank 638 wrote:Hey frank I had a busy day today I just checked out your post for a possibility of a snow storm quick question will this be a snow event even for NYC and the coast

These details won't be known for another 3 days. There seems to be sufficent cold air to work with but still too soon. I want to see the EURO jump on board and show a storm first. This very well could stay to our south.

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:I put this in Banter, but I guess it could go here too? 18z total snowfall:

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:48 pm

Yeah, it's all going to depend on how long that western ridge can stay in-tact. If it holds too long, then the energy digs too far south, as the ridge collapses it gets shunted due east and misses. If it doesn't hold long enough, then we're left with two separate and unphased pieces that likely go through with snow showers (from the second piece). But if it's perfect, like we're currently seeing, then you see the result; a perfectly timed phase at the perfect latitude, so that even though it continues eastward in the progressive flow, we all end up in a prime spot (minus the whole coastal water influence part for some). HIGHLY delicate and volatile setup, which is why I'm not getting my hopes up. The progressiveness of this pattern has boned us thus far, and I honestly don't see why it would change now. If, AND ONLY IF, Wednesday/Thursday roll around and we are still seeing these solutions, THEN I'll start getting excited lol

by **amugs** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:51 pm

Snow for the nyc area from hour 156/9 until 174/7 if you don't like this then u need to see the great docstox on OTI. Coast may have issues due to a warm bathtub fetch, too bad u guys killed it the last few years hahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 6:07 pm

The energy we're interested in just left Japan. That's how far we are from seeing model agreement.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Bf17cab311c21022d94da0121d8dd08f

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Bf17cab311c21022d94da0121d8dd08f

y

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Jan 16, 2016 6:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The energy we're interested in just left Japan. That's how far we are from seeing model agreement.

y

This. It's sooooo hard to not model-hug but we won't really have true consensus until Tuesday (earliest) I'd say. study

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 10:27 pm

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Fluxes.gif.283e34548a0756896981d2babf2c5849

Some good news to report about the Stratosphere. Heat Flux at 30hPa intensifies the last week of January. I want to see those EPV arrows at 10hPa (bottom chart) extend more poleward and higher which would indicate the warming event properly propagates to the upper levels of the Stratosphere. This is the only way to disrupt the PV and, by definition, achieve a SSW.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Ecmwfzm_u_f144.gif.c0f316e293cb1ab789a3c63af70001d2

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Ecmwfzm_u_f144.gif.c0f316e293cb1ab789a3c63af70001d2

Zonal mean zonal winds peak on the EURO around Day 6.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif.5e8d083d6682cd663a302b4b0481f037

Notice how much it backs off at 60N/10hPa in Day 10.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_33

12z GFS shows a pretty disrupted PV. My optimism level is back up on a SSWE taking place, but I caution we're starting to run out at time. If it doesn't happen the last week of Jan, it mine as well not happen at all.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:19 pm

The 00z GFS continues to show a Roidzilla effecting the area next Friday. If the EURO hops on board tonight or tomorrow, we will seriously have to start taking this seriously.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f147

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f147

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f153

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:20 pm

0z Gfs

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 21 Gfs_ms11

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:24 pm

please let this be true I really want snow

by **Vinnydula** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:30 pm

Awsome! Showing two feet!

by **snow247** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:32 pm

Please let the 00z GFS verify. Thanks.

by Abba701 Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:32 pm

I wish.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:37 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:38 pm

The 00z CMC holds serve too but it's warm. Natural for this model. It has a warm bias. Man why can this not be Wednesday night!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:08 am

00z GEFS!

by **amugs** Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:11 am

Euro runs and EPS are going to be ......
HUUUGGGEEE!!

by **lglickman1** Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:17 am

What is the time frame for this potential storm?

by **Vinnydula** Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:19 am

Looks like late Friday. I'm waiting up for the euro no way I'm going to sleep now

by Abba701 Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:21 am

It's too early to get excited.Like Frank said if it was Wendesday night then they would have to get the plows ready.Not yet...

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:21 am

Dunnzoo wrote:

That rivals 03, holy crap. Totally different setup closer to '96 but still different its a transfer scenario but jeez thats some eye candy. Just wish it was closer.

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