Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[chief7]

That's what I'm a little bit concerned about their skins the low getting too close to the coast

[skinsfan1177]

That's what I'm a little bit concerned about their skins the low getting too close to the coast

Yeah but I think with cold air in place and if it's a strong storm it should bring down the cold air.

[SNOW MAN]

I just watched the weather from my local TV station and when they put up the seven day forecast she said there would be a coastal storm coming up the East coast that would dump heavy snow for the whole area. She said the GFS was showing it would be a Friday/Saturday event and the Euro was showing Sunday. I found this unusual because they usually downplay any snow event before or even while it's happening. I know it's to early to call anything yet, but could this be a good sign or the old proverbial KOD. She also said the NWS long range temp outlook showed above normal temps for most of the nation after the storm passes.
 I watched channel 4 in NY last night and they also mentioned a possible snow event for next weekend. I guess will have to see what our crack team of forecaster say in a few days when things become more clear. Got to run. See you all later.

[Quietace]

That's what I'm a little bit concerned about their skins the low getting too close to the coast

Verbatim on all models, once the low intensify and occludes, the 0C line is in N/SC, with surface temps supporting frozen precip.

[skinsfan1177]

I just watched the weather from my local TV station and when they put up the seven day forecast she said there would be a coastal storm coming up the East coast that would dump heavy snow for the whole area. She said the GFS was showing it would be a Friday/Saturday event and the Euro was showing Sunday. I found this unusual because they usually downplay any snow event before or even while it's happening. I know it's to early to call anything yet, but could this be a good sign or the old proverbial KOD. She also said the NWS long range temp outlook showed above normal temps for most of the nation after the storm passes.
 I watched channel 4 in NY last night and they also mentioned a possible snow event for next weekend. I guess will have to see what our crack team of forecaster say in a few days when things become more clear. Got to run. See you all later.

Usually not a good sign if their mentioning this far ahead KOD no doubt. But this year is not the norm so who knows if by weds it's still their then I will be very excited until then it's model watching time

[Snow88]

Euro Ensembles support the op

[Frank_Wx]

The 00z EURO-PARA, which has better stats than the current EURO-OP, showed a beast last nught. 

[Quietace]

The 00z EURO-PARA, which has better stats than the current EURO-OP, showed a beast last nught. 

Comparatively,

[skinsfan1177]

Wow Ace I hope it stays on the models looks like coastal areas do great on that map. But lots of time here

[rb924119]

The 00z EURO-PARA, which has better stats than the current EURO-OP, showed a beast last nught. 

wow i can only imagine how much snow that puts down. where do i find the para surface maps ive looked on wxbell.

Here Jman:

And this is only with 10:1 ratios. Totals would be 20-30" region-wide verbatim if this verified. Again, not getting excited yet because of how volatile this pattern has been, but hopeful. Very, very hopeful hahaha

[crippo84]

Lol hope it isn't the KOD but even TWC is very bullish on the 10 day forecast for this storm.

[sroc4]

Jman surface maps for euro para:
" />

[img][/img]

[frank 638]

Yes this a beautiful map I just hope it stays like this

[jmanley32]

The 00z EURO-PARA, which has better stats than the current EURO-OP, showed a beast last nught. 

wow i can only imagine how much snow that puts down. where do i find the para surface maps ive looked on wxbell.

Here Jman:

And this is only with 10:1 ratios. Totals would be 20-30" region-wide verbatim if this verified. Again, not getting excited yet because of how volatile this pattern has been, but hopeful. Very, very hopeful hahaha

I just found it wow......

[skinsfan1177]

Can someone explain on why the the storm stalls and snows itself out. do we have blocking? I know things will definetly change this far out.

[jmanley32]

Lol hope it isn't the KOD but even TWC is very bullish on the 10 day forecast for this storm.

Not a huge believer in jinx's etc though the KOD thing here I know is felt strongly at times. I think the pros going at it to me anyways tells me how much they see the agreement like Frank said, we have never really seen before GFS,CMC Euro, Euro para and ensembles mostly all showing a all out godzilla (though 06z gfs isnt but still its far out its still going to change). I am though very surprised tht the pros are talking it up already. Wait too SM sees some of these maps.

[Quietace]

Can someone explain on why the the storm stalls and snows itself out. do we have blocking? I know things will definetly change this far out.

There is blocking upstream of the flow, but also confluence running E/W north of the system. After N/S stream phase the system also cuts of just east of NJ/LI currently as modeled.

[amugs]

Morning folks - well well well - I see some great action overnight - EURO PARA FTW - uhmm this is huge by this model but still 60 hours before the LP comes ashore so models are going to swing a bit.

And there are more vorts in the pipeline behind this one with better spacing - POTENTIAL is a good thing at this point come wed/Night it starts to become KINETIC!!

[Quietace]

Another note is how high the PWV are on models. Lots of precip in a short period of time before and during CCB maturity.

[Quietace]

Verbatim the System is so dynamic that CAPE is showing up on models in the CCB when it is at peak intensity.

[sroc4]

I urge everyone to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. We have already seen good model agreement on a potential system, including ensembles, only to have things fall apart as we move closer. This has a ton of potential given the extent of model agreement and the fact that we are in the 5-7day range, but we are far from home.

You will not hear much from me until at least Tuesday.

[Dtone]

Lol hope it isn't the KOD but even TWC is very bullish on the 10 day forecast for this storm.

They have 2 - 3 days of steady snow in their forecast.  They dont even have the usual words like "chance", or "snow possible", or "watching a winter storm" they usually use this far out.
This is for the whole I 95 corridor DC to NY, they are less bullish into New England

[chief7]

Sroc has the right state of mind totally agree with you brother

[jake732]

the weather channel for me is predicting a foot already!

[rb924119]

Just a quick assessment of where I think this system stands based on ensembles. I think this is going to end up becoming a threat mainly for areas east of I-95, with the greatest threat for the Mid-Atlantic. Why? Well, mainly because of the progressiveness of the pattern in the Pacific. When looking at the GFS 00z Ensemble 500 hPa Spaghettis, seen below, there are several outliers that keep the flow flat which in turn skews the mean to be less amplified than it probably will trend to in coming runs. That would deepen the trough and pull the mean closer to the coast and Benchmark.



Now take a look at the 00z EURO Ensemble:



You can see that nearly all of the members denote the eastern troughing, and that's a good sign. However, take a look at the width of that trough according to a large majority of the members; the back-side is around the Mississippi while the leading edge is near the East Coast. Looking back at the GFS, the Euro Ensembles depict a broader trough, which favors a track further away from the coast and outside the Benchmark.

Lastly, here's the Canadian Ensemble:



Similarly to the GFS, there are several outlier members here in that they keep the entire flow progressive, which again skews the mean to a less amplified solution. That said, attempting to correct for this, it seems like this ensemble would lie somewhere in the middle of the GFS and EURO ensembles with respect to the broadness of the trough, and have it stretch from the Mississippi to the Appalachian range. This would likely result in a track near or slightly outside of the Benchmark.

In light of all this, which idea do I personally favor? Well, seeing as though the Pacific flow is expected to remain fast and active, which is why we see the collapse of the western ridge in the first place, and from memory telling me that these ridges have a tendency of collapsing faster than modeled, I'm favoring the EURO the most, followed by the Canadian then GFS (55%, 25%, 20%) at this time. I think a track just outside or outside the Benchmark seems likely. An added reason to my thinking is the fact that the EURO has a very large cluster of broader 500 hPa heights, and in a fast and progressive pattern, this makes sense to me because it's very difficult (if not impossible) to get and maintain an amplified pattern with nothing amplifying upstream of it, and no blocking downstream. I think the trough will already be starting to broaden and flatten out as we see our storm developing. Again, this is all being based on the data that we have right now, and is certainly open to changes, but those are my thoughts so far.

[jmanley32]

Lol hope it isn't the KOD but even TWC is very bullish on the 10 day forecast for this storm.

They have 2 - 3 days of steady snow in their forecast.  They dont even have the usual words like "chance", or "snow possible", or "watching a winter storm" they usually use this far out.
This is for the whole I 95 corridor DC to NY, they are less bullish into New  England

local forecast if u read details on twc has 6 to 16 inches total. Thst is crazy to call thst this far out. Accuwx had nothing lol.

[Frank_Wx]

Nice post RB. I think what's especially important is the block helping to slow down the Pacific flow. That's why some models are stalling this storm off the coast. Atlantic is full.

[Sponsored content]