Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:18 am

Dtone wrote:
crippo84 wrote:Lol hope it isn't the KOD but even TWC is very bullish on the 10 day forecast for this storm.

They have 2 - 3 days of steady snow in their forecast. They dont even have the usual words like "chance", or "snow possible", or "watching a winter storm" they usually use this far out.
This is for the whole I 95 corridor DC to NY, they are less bullish into New England

local forecast if u read details on twc has 6 to 16 inches total. Thst is crazy to call thst this far out. Accuwx had nothing lol.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:38 am

Nice post RB. I think what's especially important is the block helping to slow down the Pacific flow. That's why some models are stalling this storm off the coast. Atlantic is full.

by Biggin23 Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:53 am

I have a feeling this one could pan out for us. Not for any cool meteorological reason, but because I will be driving home Friday night after a conference in DC. That pretty much guarantees it!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:54 am

by **jake732** Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:55 am

i just dont remember a storm actually happening when it was predicted this far out. could be im wrong but plz correct me if i am

by Guest Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:56 am

Exciting times ahead. I just don't like being in the bullseye (which LI is) this far in advance. Models change every run so for me there is only one way for this to trend right now and that is unfavorably.

..I personally do not ever remember all major models in agreement 6 days out for a possible MECS since the 1993 "superstorm". NOT THAT I'M COMPARING THIS THREAT TO THAT ONE!!!

Anyway I will not get sucked in until Tuesday night. If still there than GAME ON!!

by **amugs** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:11 am

GEFS on the Strart warming been showing this since last thurs for the end of Jan dislodging

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 24 Gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 24 Gfs-ens_Tz10_7d_nhem_2

Only hope it comes to fruition so we can rock in Feb and teh warm up looks to be N to slightly above N by 1-maybe 3* for a few days in LR next week. We get a snowpack (deep one) then you see this change to N to BN.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:22 am

syosnow94 wrote:Exciting times ahead. I just don't like being in the bullseye (which LI is) this far in advance. Models change every run so for me there is only one way for this to trend right now and that is unfavorably.

..I personally do not ever remember all major models in agreement 6 days out for a possible MECS since the 1993 "superstorm". NOT THAT I'M COMPARING THIS THREAT TO THAT ONE!!!

Anyway I will not get sucked in until Tuesday night. If still there than GAME ON!!

Models have been known to sniff out the big ones from time to time. Along with the mentioned 1993 storm, the blizzard of 1996 was seen from a week out.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:46 am

At hour 60, the trailing vort is stronger than 06z.

by **lglickman1** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:49 am

Is that good or bad?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:52 am

Hour 78 the lead vort is weaker, western ridge is slightly stronger, trailing energy is about the same

by Biggin23 Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:53 am

I'm not positive, but I believe that would help the establish the riidging we want to see out west for the system to come up the coast vice OTS.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:56 am

H5 closed off, heights ahead of vort look a little less amplified, there is this vort over PA that really needs to move...

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:57 am

Hour 96 the western ridge is noticeably better than 06z run

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:00 am

102 H5 closed off again - this time with energy consolidating at base of trough. Heights ahead still not as amp'd as 06z but the ridge and block should make up for that.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:05 am

At 117 the trough is slightly more positively tilted than 06z, but I don't think that will harm the run

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:06 am

At 120 H5 is still not closed and there is a s/w over Michigan trying to phase it. Maybe there is a hook west at the end of the run. We'll see.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:09 am

The GFS struggled with phasing and consolidating northern s/w's this run. But overall it's a good look. Ridge was better than 06z.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:11 am

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:13 am

When H5 closed off over the midwest, it opened back up and remained opened. Past run kept H5 closed off and slowly had it creeping up the coast. The trough remained positive / neutral longer because the lead energy was stronger and heights ahead of the trailing vort did not respond like past runs.