Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

[amugs]

988 over teh del marva woop woop!!

[amugs]

I'm stuck at 138 wth??

[Frank_Wx]

MADONNE!!!

[amugs]

Here we go holy mother opf god!!

[dsix85]

@Frank.. do the warmer ocean temps enhance snowfall with this beast?

[amugs]

This is sick!! 12 hours of heavy kick aqss CCB!

[Frank_Wx]

@Frank.. do the warmer ocean temps enhance snowfall with this beast?

Yes, notice how pressure levels drop when it's over water and it begins pulling cold air to the coast. It's not just the warm water but also the trough going negative.

[amugs]

Still going strong - WTH??

[Frank_Wx]

On the CMC it begins snowing at hour 126 and it's still going through hour 150.

[Taffy]

Mugs, glad to see that something raised your spirits and got you out of that girdle!  

[amugs]

WOW what a duration of an event - I mean 18 hours of Mod to heavy snow and I mean heavy white gold!!!!!!!!!

[hyde345]

Thanks for posting the CMC guys because the GFS run was not a good run for us hudson valley peeps. It will be interesting the see what 12z euro has.

[amugs]

Mugs, glad to see that something raised your spirits and got you out of that girdle!  

HAHAHAHA!!! I am still in it - that is the kicker - maybe it is the lucky girdle !!!!

[RJB8525]

WOW what a duration of an event - I mean 18 hours of Mod to heavy snow and I mean heavy white gold!!!!!!!!!

[amugs]

Thanks for posting the CMC guys because the GFS run was not a good run for us hudson valley peeps. It will be interesting the see what 12z euro has.

Hyde,

As Frank said a sloppy phase but this is to be expected at this juncture and not every run is going to show a bomb - heck 4-6" is 1000000x better than we we were a month ago - this could just be teh beginning!

Mugs

[amugs]

On the CMC it begins snowing at hour 126 and it's still going through hour 150.

This would rival the great PDI and II storms of 1978/2003 hands down for duration if it happens of course.

SNOWS FROM HOURS 126 - 156 - this is a big MADDDDONNNNEEEEEE!!

[Frank_Wx]

It is all about how the phase is handled. At this juncture, I am just content models still show all the key pieces to getting a storm. We will begin looking at specifics Tuesday night.

[amugs]

This ^^^^^ is what we need at this juncture - ala teh great one Frank speaking such and be as SROC said CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC.

[amugs]

Earthlight has chimed in:

Both the GFS and GGEM offer explosive potential solutions with the evolutions at 500 hPa. The GFS seems to remain slightly progressive with the pattern aloft, and the surface low never really is fully captured by upper level dynamics. The Canadian, given the setup at H5, makes sense at the surface. We will have to see if these types of solutions start showing up more often...because as this OP run stands, the potential would exist for a crippling snowfall in some areas with a stalled surface low and historic-level deformation banding.

[hyde345]

She is like a succubus that seduces you and I don't want to get too excited but the start time is only a little over 5 days away.

[Abba701]

But it's still 6 days away.. Can this threat stick ?

[nutleyblizzard]

It is all about how the phase is handled. At this juncture, I am just content models still show all the key pieces to getting a storm. We will begin looking at specifics Tuesday night.

I agree Frank. I'm pretty confident we will see a snow event. At what strength and duration is still to be determined. While its encouraging to see the models spit out some extreme solutions, I'm keeping my excitement tempered right now. I expect to see a lot of ups in downs from the models for the next couple of days before they lock in by midweek. Things should become much clearer by then.

[jimv45]

yea Hyde I am with you I will wait until Thursday with this winter or when it happens!! but got remain positive need something good to happen!

[billg315]

A lot of new folks on here it seems so for people on here reading terms like "CCB" and "deformation zone banding" (in connection with the possible 1/22-1/23 event) for the first time (or who have heard it but aren't sure exactly what it's all about), sroc posted a great explanation in the weather education thread on this site about CCB's last year. I added a link to that thread today to an explanation from NOAA on deformation zones.

[SoulSingMG]

But it's still 6 days away.. Can this threat stick ?

Yes. But it's tricky; the main piece of energy in question is still over the Pacific and won't reach the mainland until Tues, at which point we'll see better sampling with the models. But a pretty impressive agreement currently exists among the models for an event.

[Frank_Wx]

But it's still 6 days away.. Can this threat stick ?

The major pieces involved for getting the storm to develop all come together at Day 4. This event is not far off. If 12z euro and 18z runs hold serve a thread will be started this evening with a quick release of tomorrow's Mo Mo.

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