Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[jmanley32]

And the wind is insane.

So we can throw around the B word?

0-60.  but those maps rarely verify.Well the euro run verbatim had gusts along coast like 60-70mph, slightly inland 5-

Holy moley

yeah he is right, they do not verify but it gives u am idea the "B" word is a def possibility.

[Mathgod55]

Don't begin to get excited until Wednesday at the earliest. A LONG WAY TO GO with numerous variables.

[jmanley32]

I had a feeling.... from another forum. Offset by a stronger storm but still a difference...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=275830

South No?????????????????????????

syo no offense but your being a big downer on this (i totally understand ur feelings though), at this point we still do not know, it could go north again and its the 18z, many here think it is junk. The cmc, ensembles and europ and euro ensembles both show massive storms. The GFS has not been great to begin with. As stated wait for tues night wed and then we can get pumped or jump lol.

[nutleyblizzard]

I had a feeling.... from another forum. Offset by a stronger storm but still a difference...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=275830

South No?????????????????????????

syo no offense but your being a big downer on this (i totally understand ur feelings though), at this point we still do not know, it could go north again and its the 18z, many here think it is junk. The cmc, ensembles and europ and euro ensembles both show massive storms.  The GFS has not been great to begin with.  As stated wait for tues night wed and then we can get pumped or jump lol.

I wouldn't worry what the GFS shows at this point in time. It's the most south and east of all the models. Could be the SE bias at play here which this model is known to have. Until the other models show otherwise, I wouldn't worry too much.

[Guest]

Me saying South doesn't mean I;m worried. I'm South and East. Just don't want to be in the bullseye this far out.

[amugs]

Large amount of GEFS members are tucked in right near the coast...classic left leaning signal on the mean.
Earthlight words of wisdom and I agree 10000000000000000X

Please stop worrying so much and, for now, enjoy this. I promise you won't regret it later.

That being said we have plenty of time to go here and I would not be surprised to see this signal trend SE before coming back NW. Happens all the time with the big ones.

Just look at what happened today? Very good sign IMHO.

[devsman]

So, it's going to rain next Saturday? Lol

[skinsfan1177]

So, it's going to rain next Saturday? Lol

Exactly!

[RJB8525]

So, it's going to rain next Saturday? Lol

Overcast at times showers in the A.M high of 60*

[frank 638]

yes rain and wind

[docstox12]

Well, NWS starting to buy into this.Friday,Sat and Sat night 40% chance here of snow.Temps 29 and lower for the event.

Looks like they buy the GFS as S and E have much higher percentages.Here we go again with the S and E trend,LOL!

[hyde345]

Well, NWS starting to buy into this.Friday,Sat and Sat night 40% chance here of snow.Temps 29 and lower for the event.

Looks like they buy the GFS as S and E have much higher percentages.Here we go again with the S and E trend,LOL!

They have me in 80% chance for Saturday and I'm north of you in Dutchess county.

[SoulSingMG]

NWS: "Significant winter weather to affect our area this week..."

[devsman]

weather channel has 16-24 inches next weekend for southern long island. I'm buying bread and milk tomorrow. I'll wait on the shovel.

[NjWeatherGuy]

weather channel has 16-24 inches next weekend for southern long island. I'm buying bread and milk tomorrow. I'll wait on the shovel.

Oh no... storm cancel... If it trends south and they call for 2-4" and we see sudden readjustment north then stock up.

[Frank_Wx]

This thread will go back to talking only about the long range. Please use the thread I just started to speak about Friday's potential storm.

[algae888]

I'm getting excited as well but can anyone explain how the pattern has changed so quickly from two days ago and everyone was ready to give up. And headi,g storms behind this one what gives

skins the pattern we are in now is great. it did look like it would last longer though. the nao is neg now and the ao is historically low at about -5 but both are headed towards positive levels in the next 7-10 days. add in a +pna and active stj and all the ingredients are there. we just haven't been lucky yet as all the players haven't timed out just right. think about today just a slight adjustment at 500mb and we could have had a mecs and on fri night if the ull over the great lakes which brought warm air into our region would have phased with the southern jet wave we would have had another snowstorm. just bad luck so far. as I and others have said about a week ago the next ten days will be our best shot at a snowstorm. after this a relaxation should occur and we warm some but not to the extent models were showing a few days ago. if we get a descent snowstorm next week we can expect even less of a warm up and who knows what happens in feb. models really having a tough time with pattern in the lr. maybe I was a little premature to give up on this winter. I hope so!

[Frank_Wx]

After the 22nd storm we have to watch the 26th

[amugs]

After the 22nd storm we have to watch the 26th

ahh you beat me too it - noted this in the 18z run and there is another one in teh pipeline for the 31st time frame BOOYAHHH!!

[amugs]

Next one maybe just as big for the 28th time frame just saying!!

[Snow88]

27-28. sounds familiar?

[algae888]

Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec. also look at enso 1.2...

crashing!!! man I may have been so wrong to give up on this winter. have to trust scott and frank more!!!

[skinsfan1177]

Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec. also look at enso 1.2...

crashing!!! man I may have been so wrong to give up on this winter. have to trust scott and frank more!!!

Algae your write ups are great always like reading them. Everyone has their insight. Keep up the great work!

[amugs]

ISOTHERM ON STRAT

If we do not achieve an official, major SSW displacement near the end of January/beginning of Feb, it will be very close. We've had / will have all the classic precursors, including the tropospheric amplification of wave-1, robust NATL blocking, upcoming +EA MT, etc.

Wave 1 forecasted heights of over 1500 gpm, and should peak around 1650-1700 gpm, which is near record territory. Typically the SSW would occur immediately following. We'll see what happens. As noted, the initial condition of the vortex may or may not preclude a major SSW.

0Z GFS


6Z GFS

OH BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[amugs]

Well well well will u look at this for next wed/turd day storm GEFS barking here miller a it is says no ti the op for its rum and shows a euro similar solution
When it rains it pours peeps, no rest for the weary,

[amugs]

Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec. also look at enso 1.2...

crashing!!! man I may have been so wrong to give up on this winter. have to trust scott and frank more!!!

If we never had the wwb in late Dec early jan just think where we would be? Could have had a couple of snowstorms under our belts at this point. Don't fret as of we'd I was concerned as to the pattern going forward after checking in a couple of pro mets I know and others. Only Isotherm ND earthlight told me contrary but weren't sure and had some doubts as well.

Great sign and buckle up Paisan cause I think we are going to be in for one hell of a ride from nj ow until mid March

[Snowfall]

The storm signal for the 30th is just as good just one at a time

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