Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

No rest for the weary. 18z gfs has better phasing than the 12z gfs. 

[weatherwatchermom]

Txt Frank...

[rb924119]

I already see the differences in why the EURO Ensembles are yielding a "Part 2" and the those of the GFS are not. I can't do a full discussion, but if you look at how the situation evolves, the EURO takes the piece of energy that crashes the ridge and allows it to become the primary, while the initial shortwave out ahead of it flattens out as it begins to become sheared apart downstream of the trough axis by the confluent region. By doing so, this prevents a mini-ridge from forming behind it and acting as a kicker that would boot the initial shortwave forward and keep the flow progressive. The GFS, however, does just that. The secondary short-wave remains separate, forces a short-wave ridge ahead of it, and boots the initial wave OTS before the secondary energy can truly consolidate and recover the heights ahead of itself. Not only does this allow the southern-stream energy to escape OTS beneath the trough, but it doesn't allow the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough in time.

[skinsfan1177]

Is their a hp to the north to help bring down cold air

[sroc4]

Is their a hp to the north to help bring down cold air

There doesn't appear to be much in the way of HP in this case skins as currently modeled. Thats why if it's all southern stream it will rain along the coast. Coastal plain needs a phase to draw in the cold air.

[jake732]

Skinns I know it's early but this is going to be a rain event for us

[skinsfan1177]

Skinns I know it's early but this is going to be a rain event for us

To early to tell its still 6 days away

[frank 638]

i hope we get no rain because flooding would be insane

[jmanley32]

Skinns I know it's early but this is going to be a rain event for us

To early to tell its still 6 days away

thurs into fri would b 4 to 5 days max. Soon have its own thread?

[Frank_Wx]

Skinns I know it's early but this is going to be a rain event for us

To early to tell its still 6 days away

thurs into fri would b 4 to 5 days max. Soon have its own thread?

Tomorrow if necessary

[snow247]

JB is using this as an analog for this possible storm.

This would be nice, everyone would cash in.

[devsman]

If that Clipper moves in before, maybe but its gonna be tough. Gonna wait for the momo.

[snow247]

NAM is looking good for this now.

[Frank_Wx]

NAM is looking good for this now.

Gotta wait till 00z tomorrow. I wonder if GFS continues taking a step toward the EURO. We'll see soon.

[amugs]

Gfs showing a split next week - at the 10,30 an d50 levels IF this comes to fruition then we REALLY wil be rocking and rolling come Feb.



Many exhausting times ahead BUT I Frickin hope not as strenuous and intense as this week's storm. I may have to be a follower on one.

[amugs]

Even if it doesn't split a dislodge would be good too. I am waiting to here from the genius Isotherm on this when I do I will post.I like this since it has been modelled for the last couple of weeks. Come to big Mugs you lovely Polar Vortex and to Vladimir,share the wealth on both sides.

[Frank_Wx]

The possible storm Thursday night into Friday is still on the table. EPS last night still track a low close to the coast to bring snow to the area. The GFS and EURO OP remain out to sea. I'm leaning out to sea because we lost our blocking, but if the ridge in the west holds it won't take much to get a phase. We'll see!!

[sroc4]

EPS has a cluster of members tucked just NW inside the mean and a cluster well S and E. The ones S and E are skewing the mean and on avg are much weaker. Phase or no phase is essentially the difference. This is Uptons discussion:

THERE IS THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SE OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOW CLOSE TO US IT
EVENTUALLY APPROACHES APPEARS TO BE IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING
TIMING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS TRACKS THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW CLOSER TO US...BRINGING PCPN TO MOST OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...GFS
HAS BEEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW AND KEEPS US DRY. GEFS MEAN
HAS HOWEVER BEEN FARTHER NW WITH THE LOW AND CLOSER TO ECMWF.
CONSIDERING THE GEFS MEAN TYPICAL SE BIAS IN SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...THERE`S A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE GFS WILL EVENTUALLY NUDGE
FARTHER NW WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. WILL CAP POPS AT CHC FOR
NOW. KEPT PCPN TYPES BASIC AT THIS POINT WITH THIS BEING A PRIMARILY
SNOW EVENT...BUT WITH MIXING POSSIBILITIES AT SOME COASTAL SPOTS.

[sroc4]

I would also like to point out that the northern branch energy doesn't come onshore and wont be fully sampled for another 48-54 hrs. The Strong Pac Jet coming in behind it to flatten the ridge is even further out. I am pretty sure that given how fooled EVERYONE(amateurs and prof alike) was with the last storm we need to wait at least until Tuesday eve/Wed morning 00z's before calling anything definitive. I am certainly leaning with a more progressive soln for the moment due to the combo of the collapsing ridge and lack of blocking, but not by much. Coastal Plain/NE esp should cont to monitor closely

[docstox12]

EPS has a cluster of members tucked just NW inside the mean and a cluster well S and E.  The ones S and E are skewing the mean and on avg are much weaker.  Phase or no phase is essentially the difference.  This is Uptons discussion:

THERE IS THEN A CHANCE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SE OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOW CLOSE TO US IT
EVENTUALLY APPROACHES APPEARS TO BE IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING
TIMING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS TRACKS THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW CLOSER TO US...BRINGING PCPN TO MOST OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...GFS
HAS BEEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW AND KEEPS US DRY. GEFS MEAN
HAS HOWEVER BEEN FARTHER NW WITH THE LOW AND CLOSER TO ECMWF.
CONSIDERING THE GEFS MEAN TYPICAL SE BIAS IN SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...THERE`S A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE GFS WILL EVENTUALLY NUDGE
FARTHER NW WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. WILL CAP POPS AT CHC FOR
NOW. KEPT PCPN TYPES BASIC AT THIS POINT WITH THIS BEING A PRIMARILY
SNOW EVENT...BUT WITH MIXING POSSIBILITIES AT SOME COASTAL SPOTS.

Hmmmmm. Looks like something could be brewing here.Anyway, what a 360 degree turn around from 2 weeks ago.You Long Range guys are going be going into sleep deprivation land the next month,LOL!

[amugs]

JB

As usual I am more bullish on further west. Every storm this winter has been further west, Every? Yes.. Those storms that pulled up west when it was warmer all were west of what the GFS had originally, as there were some runs that had snowstorms in the east 6-10 days out back in December.
But there are a couple of problems with the models that may not be understood. First of all, the model may develop the low too far east in the first place. In fact the 06z run, I think its feedback that has the storm that far out, though it corrected from the previous run some
I posted last night after I saw it, and said that this would correct west

It has, but given that trough and that warm water, whats it doing that far out at sea? It may lie with the idea that the front will get that far out there. I don't think that will happen.

Realistically the top end of something like this is nothing like last week, but still enough so if last week had not come along, this would be a big deal.
So it looks like the kind of storm that would have more at Boston than DC, but the top limits may be 6 in DC and 12 in Boston.

[amugs]

Euro better at this type of storm than GFS - pure Miller A

[skinsfan1177]

Reading on another weatherboard lots of talk about long range not looking so good.

[devsman]

After this weekend, it looks warm but still think we have a chance in Feb for another massive storm

[sroc4]

Reading on another weatherboard lots of talk about long range not looking so good.

There is no doubt that there will be a warm up after the Jan28th-30th threat moves by (regardless of a hit or OTS). Pattern turns zonal; then we get a trough that digs into the west.  This in turn will raise heights in the east which will bring warmer than normal temps into the east.  However; beyond that is up in the air.  I do not believe it lasts for more than a week, maybe less. Everthing I am seeing and reading points to us going right back to a colder and stormier pattern.  We will prob be hearing about the stratosphere again in the near future, and blockingf looks to be reestablishing itself in the form of a -AO, slt neg EPO, +PNA, and maybe -NAO.  Anyone who is saying the pattyern doesnt look good forgets how aweful the LR forecasts have been thus far.  With pattern changes coming models will once again flip and flop in the LR.  Do not take anything verbatim.

[amugs]

GREAT NEWS FROM ISOTHERM ON THE STRATOSPHERE AND PATTERN

Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February.

Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well.

Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative.

Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast.

[sroc4]

GREAT NEWS FROM ISOTHERM ON THE STRATOSPHERE AND PATTERN

Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February.

Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well.

Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative.

Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast.

I just checked Tom posted this 2 hrs ago, but I swear I wrote my last post before reading this.

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