Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

GREAT NEWS FROM ISOTHERM ON THE STRATOSPHERE AND PATTERN

Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February.

Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well.

Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative.

Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast.

[sroc4]

GREAT NEWS FROM ISOTHERM ON THE STRATOSPHERE AND PATTERN

Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February.

Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well.

Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative.

Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast.

I just checked Tom posted this 2 hrs ago, but I swear I wrote my last post before reading this.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Not sure I "feel" this threat. Just seems like too much room between the energies and they dont want to hook up. Would take a lot for this to turn into a storm for the area imo and in addition the temps are marginal at best due to GL low. Pattern is fairly progressive. Dont really like it. Feel like we're going to go through a bit of a lull before we have a snowstorm shot again, a pattern reload if you will, and this isnt it imho.

[Frank_Wx]

Models seem poised to show another big storm potential 1st week of February. Won't take much with this explosive STJ. If the storm 29th storm misses I'm taking this week to recharge for February. Madonne I'm beat. 

[SNOW MAN]

Frank, will this next possible event just (Jan 29-30) effect the southern areas only or is there a possibility of hitting the Northern areas also if everything came together perfectly ?

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, will this next possible event just (Jan 29-30) effect the southern areas only or is there a possibility of hitting the Northern areas also if everything came together perfectly ?

This storm would effect everyone if it came together perfectly. If there is partial phasing then it may scrape the coast. I'm thinking either phase or no phase. Nothing in between.

[jmanley32]

So when are we waiting till to decide if this 29th-30th storm is a real threat and not OTS? Its only 4 days away or so, that's usually wqithin range of a thread of its own.  I believe it was said 00z tonight? 12z were all ots, haven't seen Euro yet but even 00z Euro ensembles most were a miss, but they are all close.

[oldtimer]

Frankie Thank you for relentless work on last weeks monster You need some rest to take a breather I must say its refreshing to see all members work together and your administrated staff making this forum special I would like to see something materialize this week anyway lol

[amugs]

[size=33]Models seem poised to show another big storm potential 1st week of February. Won't take much with this explosive STJ. If the storm 29th storm misses I'm taking this week to recharge for February. Madonne I'm beat. [/size]

Frank we new the 1st half was toast and we needed to get as much rest as possible cause the second half comeback was,is going ti be furious! ! Saddle up amigo we got lots of tracking possibilities ahead. The GOA LP is p4ogg3d to retrograde to 155w which is where the euro seasonal had it going back in Aug.l this will cause the heights to raise on the epo and pna axis and a trough to form over the se thus opening up just like what we saw this week and possibly the end of this week as LP for over the South, GOA region and as they say " barrel" up the coast. We'll have a Neg AO and NAO if the Stratosphere here forecast comes to fruition which we are about a week away from and then all hell can be breakin' loose.

[sroc4]

So when are we waiting till to decide if this 29th-30th storm is a real threat and not OTS? Its only 4 days away or so, that's usually wqithin range of a thread of its own.  I believe it was said 00z tonight? 12z were all ots, haven't seen Euro yet but even 00z Euro ensembles most were a miss, but they are all close.

Jman Im giving it until Tuesday into wed 00z.  That is when the N energy will be fully sampled.  That Said if today or tonight Euro and EPS significantly trend S and E I will be 90% sold on OTS.  Currently Im only 75% before I see the euro and Ens

[amugs]

So when are we waiting till to decide if this 29th-30th storm is a real threat and not OTS? Its only 4 days away or so, that's usually wqithin range of a thread of its own.  I believe it was said 00z tonight? 12z were all ots, haven't seen Euro yet but even 00z Euro ensembles most were a miss, but they are all close.

12z OTS - Southern Stream is not there for this yet - needs a good amount of work to produce an EC storm - ridge flattens out west too. Likely OTS - but as we know this winter this could change at the 0Z tonight and possibly 12Z tomorrow. Small window of time but still an open window.

[Guest]

Anyone else see Frank's new Avatar.  He went from all dressed up prior to Jonas, to Godzilla for the storm, to a cast member from the MTV show "Jersey Shore"

......by the way Frank you are quickly becoming a legend in my school after this last storm  Everyone who asked me last Friday I told them "Frank says easy 12+ and only going higher"  They laughed because they were all hearing 6-12"  Now they all are starting to come around!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Anyone else see Frank's new Avatar.  He went from all dressed up prior to Jonas, to Godzilla for the storm, to a cast member from the MTV show "Jersey Shore"

......by the way Frank you are quickly becoming a legend in my school after this last storm  Everyone who asked me last Friday I told them "Frank says easy 12+ and only going higher"  They laughed because they were all hearing 6-12"  Now they all are starting to come around!!!!!

Shhh don't say it's me. Let me just make you look good in all of this.

[jmanley32]

EPS, wow, not tal far off coast but those ones far the the east are skewing it. Thoughts?

[Frank_Wx]

EPS, wow, not tal far off coast but those ones far the the east are skewing it. Thoughts?

We're trending to either a partial phase or out to sea. Nothing shows a full latitude trough phase. Probably best to keep expectations down and hope for the best. We lost the blocking.

[docstox12]

Reload time.

[jimv45]

Reload time!!! I didn't get an inch this year it better be load time and give me the goods!!!

[Guest]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh? I thought that was a good line

[Sparky Sparticles]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

I noticed it but didn't want to say anything, lest I be accused of being an old fuddy duddy for perfering the more clean-cut image.

Or Frankzilla. I do love me those kaiju.

[Frank_Wx]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

[Bkdude]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

Yes - cute.

[skinsfan1177]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

Frank no mo mo

[Frank_Wx]

This is what Ed O'Toole, a forecaster from the UK who specializes in Stratosphere forecasting, has to say about the current state:

The problem with displacements is that unless we see a full stratospheric destruction of the PV then we are unlikely to benefit from the slight stratospheric upheaval at the top of the strat. All signs with this displacement at this point are that it will not create a SSW and certainly not a vortex destroying one, and any propagation down to the trop of the displacement is looking stilted to say the least. We are still seeing tropospherically the increased strength vortex that occurs before the displacement, and it may take some time before this washes out of the system. I think the winter will need some tropospheric (GWO) feedback systems in place in the meantime and there is no sign of that help for a little while too! Those relying on the strat to save this winter may be disappointed, as, even if we still get a SSW and even if it does eventually propagate, it is still very uncertain that blocking would appear in the correct place. That was the fear before winter started and it still remains.

The LR GFS does show impressive wave 1 warming / displacement, but to Ed's point the PV is still intact so a relaxation may force it back into the Arctic. 


And to achieve a full SSW that would involve winds reversing at 10hPa/60N and the 240 forecasts are still not showing that.



We just experienced a historic storm thanks to tropical forcing enforcing western NH blocking, an NAO going from negative to positive, and an active STJ. I think it's best to put the Stratosphere behind us st this point unless there's dramatic change within the next week or so. At this point, the only way we benefit from the Stratosphere is from any potential precursor 500mb pattern that sets up in the high latitides of the Troposphere. If a true SSW takes place it will be near March for when those changes propagate to the Troposphere. Just my 2 cents.

[Frank_Wx]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

Frank no mo mo

Too tired from the Roidzilla tracking. Plus I did the storm in Review blog yesterday. Mo Mo's will return next Monday.

[Bkdude]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

Some good lines when you are not crying... jusst kidding

[Frank_Wx]

Well well well, look at what guidance is showing the 1st week of February. The return of the -EPO / -AO. If this verifies, I would not expect the storm around February 2nd-3rd to cut. Right now models seem to be overdoing the trough on the west. We'll see how this trends over the week.

[skinsfan1177]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

Frank no mo mo

Too tired from the Roidzilla tracking. Plus I did the storm in Review blog yesterday. Mo Mo's will return next Monday.

Don't blame great work with this past storm and to the others.

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