Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

Well well well, look at what guidance is showing the 1st week of February. The return of the -EPO / -AO. If this verifies, I would not expect the storm around February 2nd-3rd to cut. Right now models seem to be overdoing the trough on the west. We'll see how this trends over the week.

[skinsfan1177]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

Frank no mo mo

Too tired from the Roidzilla tracking. Plus I did the storm in Review blog yesterday. Mo Mo's will return next Monday.

Don't blame great work with this past storm and to the others.

[Grselig]

No one likes my jersey shore reference huh?  I thought that was a good line

I like it. Good line!

[amugs]

Isotherm Update on the Strato: (Ed Otoole's comments that Frank Posted)

Yeah, I view that board occasionally; they have some good posters there, including Ed. However, a couple points:

[1] We have been benefiting from the stratosphere over recent weeks, and can continue to benefit from it, even if a technical SSW is not achieved. Over the past few weeks, the stratosphere has been quite perturbed, via the bottom up Kara ridge influence and the wave-1 hit into the upper stratosphere a couple weeks ago. This week, we are seeing an anomalously strong wave-1 pulse which would normally induce a major SSW, but the record strong / super charged vortex will probably prevent that. With that being said the 70-10hpa vortex will continue to receive hits with elongation and displacement (in the sense that it will be moved away from its current position) toward northern Europe. This alone, even without a technical SSW, helps to raise geopotential heights over AK / Canada / Arctic.

[2] Doug is correct in that things are a bit more complicated for Europe, particularly with displacements. If the vortex is not pushed sufficiently far south, the tropospheric reflection would probably not be blocky enough in the NATL to force a cold / snowy pattern in Europe. They really want to drive that vortex very far south off the pole. Here in the US, we can get cold a number of ways. For the United Kingdom to have a cold/snowy pattern, a strong negative NAO is almost a necessity. Now, I think that may occur in February regardless of the stratosphere but we'll see.

It appears Cohen's update today is quite bullish. He thinks we've commenced a SSW, which will culminate in an official major classification in February. Mentions a split is even possible. Certainly more bullish than I am. The robust state of this winter's vortex has made me doubt that even this anomalous wave activity will accomplish an official event this year. But we'll see.

I think as long as we continue to knock the PV around and force it away from the pole, the tropospheric pattern will be favorable. Also keep in mind tropospheric indicators which support the return of blocking in and of itself.

[weatherwatchermom]

Isotherm Update on the Strato: (Ed Otoole's comments that Frank Posted)

Yeah, I view that board occasionally; they have some good posters there, including Ed. However, a couple points:

[1] We have been benefiting from the stratosphere over recent weeks, and can continue to benefit from it, even if a technical SSW is not achieved. Over the past few weeks, the stratosphere has been quite perturbed, via the bottom up Kara ridge influence and the wave-1 hit into the upper stratosphere a couple weeks ago. This week, we are seeing an anomalously strong wave-1 pulse which would normally induce a major SSW, but the record strong / super charged vortex will probably prevent that. With that being said the 70-10hpa vortex will continue to receive hits with elongation and displacement (in the sense that it will be moved away from its current position) toward northern Europe. This alone, even without a technical SSW, helps to raise geopotential heights over AK / Canada / Arctic.

[2] Doug is correct in that things are a bit more complicated for Europe, particularly with displacements. If the vortex is not pushed sufficiently far south, the tropospheric reflection would probably not be blocky enough in the NATL to force a cold / snowy pattern in Europe. They really want to drive that vortex very far south off the pole. Here in the US, we can get cold a number of ways. For the United Kingdom to have a cold/snowy pattern, a strong negative NAO is almost a necessity. Now, I think that may occur in February regardless of the stratosphere but we'll see.

It appears Cohen's update today is quite bullish. He thinks we've commenced a SSW, which will culminate in an official major classification in February. Mentions a split is even possible. Certainly more bullish than I am. The robust state of this winter's vortex has made me doubt that even this anomalous wave activity will accomplish an official event this year. But we'll see.

I think as long as we continue to knock the PV around and force it away from the pole, the tropospheric pattern will be favorable. Also keep in mind tropospheric indicators which support the return of blocking in and of itself.

Hey can you translate this to layman's terms thanks!!

[Snow88]

Watch for the 2-3 storm to trend colder. The highs to the north are interesting.

[Abba701]

How are the 18z and 00z runs for this weekend? Still out to sea?

[Dunnzoo]

18z and 00z GFS out to sea......

[NjWeatherGuy]

Watch for the 2-3 storm to trend colder. The highs to the north are interesting.

Kind of looks like the early January setup to me, maybe a little colder so it could be snow to rain to maybe snow on the back end if it stays far enough south. But I do think it cuts far enough for some rain to be involved, could be a situation where a primary begins to cut up apps, forms a coastal near our latitude and rapidly deepens and turns into an interior new england snowstorm. These situations usually mean slopstorms or rainstorms for us.

[Math23x7]

You know the potential Friday system is pretty much a goner when one 21Z SREF plume shows LGA getting 0.06" of snow while the rest have it getting no snow whatsoever.

[Abba701]

I guess I agree that Friday is gone.

[rb924119]

Unfortunately, I think we won't only see the next potential cut to our west, I also think that we may see an extended relaxation period of the pattern. Based on the MJO forecasts, it appears that through the next 15 days (if not longer) it will be stuck in the warm phases (4, 5, and maybe 6) as it begins to regain amplitude. Even though the ensembles, both GFS and EURO show support for another nice look getting into the first week of February, I would not be surprised to see this continuously pushed back as the MJO influences begin to show up in the guidance. Just my honest opinion.

[skinsfan1177]

Unfortunately, I think we won't only see the next potential cut to our west, I also think that we may see an extended relaxation period of the pattern. Based on the MJO forecasts, it appears that through the next 15 days (if not longer) it will be stuck in the warm phases (4, 5, and maybe 6) as it begins to regain amplitude. Even though the ensembles, both GFS and EURO show support for another nice look getting into the first week of February, I would not be surprised to see this continuously pushed back as the MJO influences begin to show up in the guidance. Just my honest opinion.

This was my concern yesterday and I guess what some others are talking about going into february

[jmanley32]

So go ahead with my plans for travel via car on Friday night?  No storm as far as I hear.  Funny radio still talking about its possibility.

[jmanley32]

Unfortunately, I think we won't only see the next potential cut to our west, I also think that we may see an extended relaxation period of the pattern. Based on the MJO forecasts, it appears that through the next 15 days (if not longer) it will be stuck in the warm phases (4, 5, and maybe 6) as it begins to regain amplitude. Even though the ensembles, both GFS and EURO show support for another nice look getting into the first week of February, I would not be surprised to see this continuously pushed back as the MJO influences begin to show up in the guidance. Just my honest opinion.

This was my concern yesterday and I guess what some others are talking about going into february

Even though the models show a huge cutter you expect it to shift that far east off the coast instead? That would be quite a jump. I am okay with a week or two between storms, give us a few big ones spaced a little apart as right now its absolute mayhem trying to find street parking in the Bronx and my job requires me to tavel all over, I have had to reschedule and am hoping they do something soon.

[RJB8525]

Booo doesn't look out the future outlook is that great. hopefully it changes after the 2nd although it's 3 days after the storm and DeBlasio and NYC are still in a mess..he's a complete joke and tool

[essexcountypete]

So go ahead with my plans for travel via car on Friday night?  No storm as far as I hear.  Funny radio still talking about its possibility.

TV too. Lonnie Quinn had it in his headlines last night. So much media hype over a possible storm that was never a real threat to begin with.

[SNOW MAN]

So go ahead with my plans for travel via car on Friday night?  No storm as far as I hear.  Funny radio still talking about its possibility.

TV too. Lonnie Quinn had it in his headlines last night. So much media hype over a possible storm that was never a real threat to begin with.

Did he have his sleeves rolled up ?

[algae888]

this from the same poster that I posted in the banter thread....
"12z gefs showing a pretty similar look to Feb 2015. If this is right there's going to be a big cold outbreak from the northern plains through our area."

[Frank_Wx]

Time to break. Weather this week and next does not look interesting. We'll get to normal this week and above normal by the weekend into next week. The cutter currently modeled for the middle of next week still has a chance to slide south, but all 3 global models show a cutter due to the deep trough over the western U.S. If this changes I will let everyone know. We should be back in a favorable pattern by the week of 02/07.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Time to break. Weather this week and next does not look interesting. We'll get to normal this week and above normal by the weekend into next week. The cutter currently modeled for the middle of next week still has a chance to slide south, but all 3 global models show a cutter due to the deep trough over the western U.S. If this changes I will let everyone know. We should be back in a favorable pattern by the week of 02/07.

Dont really mind it, no where to put more snow. Got a massive winters worth of snowpack in one storm. One day nothing the next day were inundated. Unreal. I recall a similar thing happening in 96, really odd how similar this turned out to that storm both the storm and pattern after.

[Guest]

this from the same poster that I posted in the banter thread....
"12z gefs showing a pretty similar look to Feb 2015. If this is right there's going to be a big cold outbreak from the northern plains through our area."

The Weather Channel just released there 3 month updated outlook. It shows the Northeastern US (from Chicago down to Atlanta on a straight line) to be WAY ABOVE AVERAGE temperature-wise, especially February!!

[sroc4]

Unfortunately, I think we won't only see the next potential cut to our west, I also think that we may see an extended relaxation period of the pattern. Based on the MJO forecasts, it appears that through the next 15 days (if not longer) it will be stuck in the warm phases (4, 5, and maybe 6) as it begins to regain amplitude. Even though the ensembles, both GFS and EURO show support for another nice look getting into the first week of February, I would not be surprised to see this continuously pushed back as the MJO influences begin to show up in the guidance. Just my honest opinion.

This is def a concern, but we are going to have to see if it really holds true. The MJO has been very disorganized and incoherent as of late. Ensemble forecasts are def hinting at the return of the -EPO, +PNA, and -AO, and possibly -NAO. The epo and AO blocking signal seems to be the strongest beginning to build by early next week. I don't think the epo ao blocking will be established enough to prevent the system around the 3rd from cutting but we will just have to monitor. The 5th-7th time frame interests me for our nxt chance at a winter storm system in the east. But again as you pointed out if the MJO pulse in the warmer phases is strong enough it may delay the decent look currently modeled on the LR ens forecasts.

[algae888]

Scott and RB we also have to remember that the MJO behaves differently during strong El Ninos. What I've read and heard is that phases 6 thru 2   are good for the Northeast  during strong El Ninos in February. I'll try and find the data to support that
Edit the MJO doesn't behave differently during El Ninos it just has a different impact on our weather. For example phase 6 is typically warm for our area but during strong El Ninos its favorable for our area for snow and cold. again I'll try and get the data to support that

[sroc4]

Scott and RB we also have to remember that the MJO behaves differently during strong El Ninos. What I've read and heard is that phases 6 thru 2   are good for the Northeast  during strong El Ninos in February. I'll try and find the data to support that

Except Al its trying to percolate in phase 4 and maybe 5.  If you look at the current WV sat loop you can see this influence into the polar jet, albeit minor at this point, beginning.  






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http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/large.html?area=6&element=2&time=201601262100&mode=UTC
Here is the loop.  If you can, open the link to watch the loop.  Make sure the channel is on water vapor, the animation rate is set at 0.1 sec/image, and "Animation For" is set at "Last 24hrs" then click play.  Give it a few seconds to load.  If you look at the convection over the areas I have the yellow arrows, you can clearly see the flow in the upper levels.  As the convection rises from the surface the tops get pulled N and West into the main flow up into the Northern latitudes.    How much of an influence on the Polar westerly's this has is dictated in part by how much of the convective energy(Latent heat), is released into that flow.  There remains bursts of convection around the dateline and points east as well.  So we are def going to have to watch this.  As Rb pointed out the LR may cont to get pushed back and pushed back if a strong MJO pulse in phases 4/5 overwhelms the polar westerly's.

[billg315]

We got a historic storm this weekend that may end up being the most memorable of my lifetime (for me personally), so I think we can all live with a break. I notice that the temperatures the last couple days actually outperformed projected high temps despite some pretty cold starts. If I were to guess, I'd say the next couple weeks feature above normal temperatures and we go back into a pattern where the systems coming through bring warm air and rain with them or at best a mix of rain and snow. But I would expect we'll have a couple more shots at snow in late February and early to mid March. I'm fine with that.

[Guest]

It's almost february guys. an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over. this was a big storm yes. Historic even. But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

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