Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[billg315]

We got a historic storm this weekend that may end up being the most memorable of my lifetime (for me personally), so I think we can all live with a break. I notice that the temperatures the last couple days actually outperformed projected high temps despite some pretty cold starts. If I were to guess, I'd say the next couple weeks feature above normal temperatures and we go back into a pattern where the systems coming through bring warm air and rain with them or at best a mix of rain and snow. But I would expect we'll have a couple more shots at snow in late February and early to mid March. I'm fine with that.

[Guest]

It's almost february guys. an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over. this was a big storm yes. Historic even. But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

[amugs]

With respect to February, the key to achieving a colder than normal month is the retrogression of the GOAK vortex into the Aleutians such that heights are permitted to rise over British Columbia / Alaska / NW Canada, thereby forcing a -EPO. Remember, most of our winter forecasts called for only February to be colder than normal. I thought December would be warm, January near normal, and then a cold to potentially much colder than normal February with many chances for snow.

Isotherm writes:

Given what I'm seeing in the latest data, +ENSO climatology / statistics, and the physical drivers of the current pattern both tropospherically and stratospherically, my confidence is increasing on a colder than normal February -- potentially continuing the trend of 1958 similarities. February 1958 featured the resumption of -AO blocking in concert with a sustained -EPO for the first time of the winter. GEFS and EPS are detecting the GOAK retrogression already, which would be expected if analogs / physical forcing proves correct. Like Don, I'd like to see several more days of data before making any official departure call for February, but right now, I feel strongly that it will be colder than normal. The extent to which is uncertain in my mind, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to achieve a -2 to -4 or colder month, if the EPO / AO part of the equation falls into place. Those indices are most important insofar as cold, so it doesn't really matter too much what the NAO does. I'll probably write up a more in-depth post in a few days concerning February.

Me:
Feb 5 through Feb 19 look Very Good . But there is plenty potentially here over the next 3 weeks after the " abbreviated " warm up flies through the flow . We all know there would be a relaxation in the pattern as every pattern usually has in the winter. We have the trop forcing that is going to re-exert itself in a big way I feel as we head into Feb and with the GOAK low retrograding we fly. The Neg AO is going to come back as it has done numerous times in mod to strong nino. I am not concerned about the MJO at this time - phase 2 ,3 a are good for teh east coast and let iot circle in between there. The cutter next week is a world away at this stage so lets take a break that big Momma is giving us and she is saying energize those batteries weenies cause you are going to need them for Feb IMO. Also, Region 1.2 has cooled significantly .7/8C and 3.4 cooled a couple of ticks as well .2C so this i good news too. I would have loved this back in late Nov but we cant so we move forward.

You can see the great trop forcing with deep neg blue at the dateline area - this is important going forward


This graph is s a good depiction of teh warm up/relaxation/thaw if you will


So with that being said we wait and reload this puppy so we can make a run in about a wees time.

[Frank_Wx]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

I would take 11 weeks of above normal and a Roidzilla over 12 weeks of "winter." 

Something about tracking storms that big just make this hobby worth it. Who knows, may never see something like that again. All personal preference of course.

[amugs]

this from the same poster that I posted in the banter thread....
"12z gefs showing a pretty similar look to Feb 2015. If this is right there's going to be a big cold outbreak from the northern plains through our area."

The Weather Channel just released there 3 month updated outlook.  It shows the Northeastern US (from Chicago down to Atlanta on a straight line) to be WAY ABOVE AVERAGE temperature-wise, especially February!!

AS did WSI and they both had above normal January's too. Easy to call AN in a nino but needs to look at "other" factors that they poo pooed like Trop forcing and the AO - they are all saying we have the ultimate death march of +EPO, -PNA Neutral AO and NAO and a raging STJ - humping 97-98 and 82-83 as top analogs - those were all raging east based ninos - not this one as has been explained for months here. We all know it woudl be a fight with this Nino and have given plenty of great meteorological reasons and scientific knowledge to help explain what the pattern would look like, We just had a Nesis 4 blizzard and put many of us near our season snowfall amounts - IMBY I am at 23" for the season with 12" to go for my seasonal average. I personally feel a few more storm are in the making and I go above my seasonal average - I personally called for 40" plus for my area here as still like this call going forward.

[Dunnzoo]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

I would take 11 weeks of above normal and a Roidzilla over 12 weeks of "winter." 

Something about tracking storms that big just make this hobby worth it. Who knows, may never see something like that again. All personal preference of course.

I'm with you Frank!

[devsman]

That storm will live in my memory til the day I day. You take the 2-4 inch storms every 6 days, I'll take the greatest snow storm I have ever seen. Those winds and snow rates, sorry...for me, better than 96. But the back to back snows in Feb of 96 were awesome too. Still, best storm ever...SANDY!

[track17]

I can never call sandy the best storm ever don't know how anyone can I had cars floating down my road tons of damage cannot even remember how long I was with power please don't call that the best storm

[NjWeatherGuy]

I can never call sandy the best storm ever don't know how anyone can I had cars floating down my road tons of damage cannot even remember how long I was with power please don't call that the best storm

Meteorological wise, youd be saying the same thing about this storm if you lived in Cape May county. It was an unprecedented and phenominal setup and sustained winds Ive never seen before in this area, truly amazing. The damage was terrible, yes, but purely as a storm, it was fascinating.

[track17]

There is a difference between saying fascinating and best storm ever

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

I agree 1000%.

Truer words were never spoken

[Abba701]

This storm was very nice but they did a good job in cleaning up.

[sroc4]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

James Im picking on you because you are typically the most vocal and volatile in your mood swings, but I know your not alone.  Do we really think that winter is over??  I mean who on this board really honest to God thinks this winter is over and that the snow weve received is it for the rest of winter?  Come on show of hands.  I want to make a true list so that come April I can hold it up. I cannot even believe what I am hearing out of so many people already about this winter simply because we are headed into a period of relaxation and reload which was by and large 100% predicted by pretty much everyone who put out a LR forecast for winter.  I cant get over how many people jumped off the winter cancel bridge; survived only to come back for our historic blizzard, and now...............simply because of a 5-10day period of relaxation in the pattern.



The timing of the reload is exactly when it was supposed to be +/- a week.  Meteorologically speaking...nailed it.  So everyone sit back and chill ax.  The signals are there for it to come back.  Even if its cold does it mean snow storms are guaranteed??  Of course not.  Nothing in this world is guaranteed, esp the weather.  But for crying out loud people.  

Now James above you mention only two weeks left of Feb then its game over.  My response to that is....WHAT????!!!!    What about March?  Last year we both received more snow in March than any other winter month.  Last year in March I received more than my seasonal avg in that month alone.  I know this years pattern is set up differently, but a few mod to big storms can easily make everyone very happy.  Id be thrilled if I get my 50" for the season but winter as a whole ends up above normal temps wise. I love the thrill of the track for snow chances. That's my personal preference, however. The drivers to this pattern are set up to finish up this winter strong.  So to reiterate, does this guarantee anything...NO, but I like the chances.  

I am not a meteorologist, and you should always take my thoughts and ideas with a grain of salt.  I know I don't have the same je ne sais quoi as Frank,  and I know everyone will wait to hear from him on the state of the rest of winter come Feb.  The confidence built in a forecast when I speak may not hold the same weight as when Frank speaks, and rightfully so, but please lets not turn the board into a funeral just yet because winter is not dead.   , I assure you.

[SNOW MAN]

Sroc, you and Mugs always make me feel re-energized with your enthusiasm when you do your write up's in the Long Range Thread. You make me feel like a kid waiting for Christmas, except it's our next snow event instead.  And no I don't feel like Winter is over. I think there's a lot more to come. As my Grandmother used to say " sit still and catch a monkey and be patient ". I can't wait to see what happens down the road.
Thanks to you and Mug's for all you do for the members of this weather board.


                                                                 NOW BRING ON THE REST OF WINTER !!!! I'M READY !

[docstox12]

I had stated earlier I thought the big storm would come in late feb-early march and would not give up until the end of feb.I've been "all in" all along.

March is when the HV people even the score.

Doc reminds me Of George C Scott in the opening of the movie "Patton", LOL!

[Radz]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

James Im picking on you because you are typically the most vocal and volatile in your mood swings, but I know your not alone.  Do we really think that winter is over??  I mean who on this board really honest to God thinks this winter is over and that the snow weve received is it for the rest of winter?  Come on show of hands.  I want to make a true list so that come April I can hold it up. I cannot even believe what I am hearing out of so many people already about this winter simply because we are headed into a period of relaxation and reload which was by and large 100% predicted by pretty much everyone who put out a LR forecast for winter.  I cant get over how many people jumped off the winter cancel bridge; survived only to come back for our historic blizzard, and now...............simply because of a 5-10day period of relaxation in the pattern.



The timing of the reload is exactly when it was supposed to be +/- a week.  Meteorologically speaking...nailed it.  So everyone sit back and chill ax.  The signals are there for it to come back.  Even if its cold does it mean snow storms are guaranteed??  Of course not.  Nothing in this world is guaranteed, esp the weather.  But for crying out loud people.  

Now James above you mention only two weeks left of Feb then its game over.  My response to that is....WHAT????!!!!    What about March?  Last year we both received more snow in March than any other winter month.  Last year in March I received more than my seasonal avg in that month alone.  I know this years pattern is set up differently, but a few mod to big storms can easily make everyone very happy.  Id be thrilled if I get my 50" for the season but winter as a whole ends up above normal temps wise.  I love the thrill of the track for snow chances. That's my personal preference, however.  The drivers to this pattern are set up to finish up this winter strong.  So to reiterate, does this guarantee anything...NO, but I like the chances.  

I am not a meteorologist, and you should always take my thoughts and ideas with a grain of salt.  I know I don't have the same je ne sais quoi as Frank,  and I know everyone will wait to hear from him on the state of the rest of winter come Feb.  The confidence built in a forecast when I speak may not hold the same weight as when Frank speaks, and rightfully so, but please lets not turn the board into a funeral just yet because winter is not dead.   , I assure you.

Agreed! I like your enthusiasm! We may not have a year of sustained below average temps, and a 6 week snowpack, but that doesn't mean winter is over! (It doesn't help having 40* this morning and only 3.5" out of 12.5" left from the storm though ) Even more could be taking the leap lol! LHV missed out on this big time, so next one better be a coastal hugger to even the score

[Guest]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

James Im picking on you because you are typically the most vocal and volatile in your mood swings, but I know your not alone.  Do we really think that winter is over??  I mean who on this board really honest to God thinks this winter is over and that the snow weve received is it for the rest of winter?  Come on show of hands.  I want to make a true list so that come April I can hold it up. I cannot even believe what I am hearing out of so many people already about this winter simply because we are headed into a period of relaxation and reload which was by and large 100% predicted by pretty much everyone who put out a LR forecast for winter.  I cant get over how many people jumped off the winter cancel bridge; survived only to come back for our historic blizzard, and now...............simply because of a 5-10day period of relaxation in the pattern.



The timing of the reload is exactly when it was supposed to be +/- a week.  Meteorologically speaking...nailed it.  So everyone sit back and chill ax.  The signals are there for it to come back.  Even if its cold does it mean snow storms are guaranteed??  Of course not.  Nothing in this world is guaranteed, esp the weather.  But for crying out loud people.  

Now James above you mention only two weeks left of Feb then its game over.  My response to that is....WHAT????!!!!    What about March?  Last year we both received more snow in March than any other winter month.  Last year in March I received more than my seasonal avg in that month alone.  I know this years pattern is set up differently, but a few mod to big storms can easily make everyone very happy.  Id be thrilled if I get my 50" for the season but winter as a whole ends up above normal temps wise.  I love the thrill of the track for snow chances. That's my personal preference, however.  The drivers to this pattern are set up to finish up this winter strong.  So to reiterate, does this guarantee anything...NO, but I like the chances.  

I am not a meteorologist, and you should always take my thoughts and ideas with a grain of salt.  I know I don't have the same je ne sais quoi as Frank,  and I know everyone will wait to hear from him on the state of the rest of winter come Feb.  The confidence built in a forecast when I speak may not hold the same weight as when Frank speaks, and rightfully so, but please lets not turn the board into a funeral just yet because winter is not dead.   , I assure you.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Thanks for the pep talk sroc.  My post was made yesterday as I was outside in shorts clearing the storm drains that were flooding from the rapidly melting snow and 48 degree temps.  I like snow that sticks around and cold every day like last year.  That's why March snows for me are not that exciting because they disappear in a couple of days.  Nice picture by the way.

.......the vocal and volatile comment reminds me of my wife. Have you two been talking?

[RJB8525]

That storm will live in my memory til the day I day. You take the 2-4 inch storms every 6 days, I'll take the greatest snow storm I have ever seen. Those winds and snow rates, sorry...for me, better than 96. But the back to back snows in Feb of 96 were awesome too. Still, best storm ever...SANDY!

it will go down as the most unpredictable storm where the worst model ever existed called it from the beginning to the end and until 24 hours out the model NAM became a model god with it's name etched in weather history.

I'm fine if it is the only storm of the winter the 1 storm is still proof DeBlasio can't handle jack shit lol

and Mugs is right we need to re energize. Still digging out hell streets in queens have yet to be plowed out yet! imagine another storm on top of that

[jmanley32]

I know many of you will not agree with me but that storm was awesome, no I do not feel hosed with 20 or so inches of snow, ranks pretty high on my list of storms.  Only thing I had hoped for was thundersnow.  That being said the snow is now making it extremely hard for me to drive anywhere, park anywhere ( street parking) etc and I am fully satisfied with this storm.  The rest of the season sounds bleak but you know what I am okay with that, Jonas was way more than I expected possibly all season and if we get another cool but I am also okay with spring coming in another month or so as I have ventures on Saturdays that require it to be fairly warm and snow free.  Its amazing how much the snow melted already, I did not expect it this fast but I would say at least 1/3rd in my neighborhood is gone already, Bronx obviously still has more which is where it makes real trouble for me.

On another note unless Feb delivers I guess my 50 inch total guess doesn't count cuz we do not count March, but in future years I think we should as its really becoming JFM instead of DJF LOL.

[jmanley32]

It's almost february guys.  an extended break would leave us with 2 weeks until March and then it's game over.  this was a big storm yes.  Historic even.  But if that's it then the truth is this winter is still way above avg. temp wise and 1 storm and a warm winter would leave me EXTREMELY disappointed!!

James Im picking on you because you are typically the most vocal and volatile in your mood swings, but I know your not alone.  Do we really think that winter is over??  I mean who on this board really honest to God thinks this winter is over and that the snow weve received is it for the rest of winter?  Come on show of hands.  I want to make a true list so that come April I can hold it up. I cannot even believe what I am hearing out of so many people already about this winter simply because we are headed into a period of relaxation and reload which was by and large 100% predicted by pretty much everyone who put out a LR forecast for winter.  I cant get over how many people jumped off the winter cancel bridge; survived only to come back for our historic blizzard, and now...............simply because of a 5-10day period of relaxation in the pattern.



The timing of the reload is exactly when it was supposed to be +/- a week.  Meteorologically speaking...nailed it.  So everyone sit back and chill ax.  The signals are there for it to come back.  Even if its cold does it mean snow storms are guaranteed??  Of course not.  Nothing in this world is guaranteed, esp the weather.  But for crying out loud people.  

Now James above you mention only two weeks left of Feb then its game over.  My response to that is....WHAT????!!!!    What about March?  Last year we both received more snow in March than any other winter month.  Last year in March I received more than my seasonal avg in that month alone.  I know this years pattern is set up differently, but a few mod to big storms can easily make everyone very happy.  Id be thrilled if I get my 50" for the season but winter as a whole ends up above normal temps wise.  I love the thrill of the track for snow chances. That's my personal preference, however.  The drivers to this pattern are set up to finish up this winter strong.  So to reiterate, does this guarantee anything...NO, but I like the chances.  

I am not a meteorologist, and you should always take my thoughts and ideas with a grain of salt.  I know I don't have the same je ne sais quoi as Frank,  and I know everyone will wait to hear from him on the state of the rest of winter come Feb.  The confidence built in a forecast when I speak may not hold the same weight as when Frank speaks, and rightfully so, but please lets not turn the board into a funeral just yet because winter is not dead.   , I assure you.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Thanks for the pep talk sroc.  My post was made yesterday as I was outside in shorts clearing the storm drains that were flooding from the rapidly melting snow and 48 degree temps.  I like snow that sticks around and cold every day like last year.  That's why March snows for me are not that exciting because they disappear in a couple of days.  Nice picture by the way.

.......the vocal and volatile comment reminds me of my wife.  Have you two been talking?

True we went months without any snow, a few weeks not going to kill us, I would prefer not to have 4 feet on the ground, lets let this one clear a bit then dump another monster.

[Frank_Wx]

Amazing agreement between the EPS and GEFS a return to winter weather is likely the week of February 7th.

EPS valid 02/07



GEFS valid 02/07:



Both models keep the Aleutian trough west enough to pump heights over the west coast into Canada and the Arctic. This is a big +PNA/-EPO signal if it comes to fruition. Encouraging the GFES show this too since they like to bring the negative into the west coast too quickly, part of their progressive bias. Further, a block over the western Arctic looks to develop which will bring the AO crashing back down to negative. If this block links with the PNA/EPO ridging that will result in a sustained cold pattern over the eastern third of the country.

EPS valid Day 15



GEFS valid Day 15



Even looking as far out as Day 15 both means try to keep this pattern in place. It becomes a bit more muted but that's because we're looking at a mean in the 10-15 Day range.



I expect the EURO once it's in range to show the EPO trend between -1 and -2sd.

This pattern heading into the 2nd week of February could potentially be a precursor to a SSWE. This is the first time I am seeing the GFS split the 10mb Strat PV. If this comes to fruition, I expect most of February into the 1st half of March to feature normal to below normal temps with active storm tracks into the Northeast.



Very impressive long range signals this morning.

[devsman]

Please understand that when I say Sandy was the best storm, I mean it based purely from a meteorological stand point, not the death and destruction it brought. When Frank said Jonas is his number 1, I know he's not saying it because 48 people died from shovelling and carbon monoxide poisoning in their cars.

[jmanley32]

Yes Sandy had me in a speechless state. It was by far the most amazing storm from a meterological standpoint in its track intensity and what it did was sad but unprecedented.

[Frank_Wx]

Please understand that when I say Sandy was the best storm, I mean it based purely from a meteorological stand point, not the death and destruction it brought. When Frank said Jonas is his number 1, I know he's not saying it because 48 people died from shovelling and carbon monoxide poisoning in their cars.

Exactly.

[Guest]

Please understand that when I say Sandy was the best storm, I mean it based purely from a meteorological stand point, not the death and destruction it brought. When Frank said Jonas is his number 1, I know he's not saying it because 48 people died from shovelling and carbon monoxide poisoning in their cars.

I'm with you guys and gals. BEST STORM EVER!! I had bad damage and flooding to my house. I had friends and relatives who live on the south shore of LI lose almost everything. I get it. DON'T KILL ME HERE...... However there is also a part of me that believes that if you live on the water it's bound to happen sooner or later. Russian roulette. What did people expect. As far as the loss of life goes it's sad. But just like Katrina people had 2 to 3 days notice to get out. I could have walked to a safe location with that much lead time. Property and valuables can be replaced, but not lives. I don't get it.

[SoulSingMG]

Ahh, anyone see the huge shift west on the 12z GFS?

[jmanley32]

Ahh, anyone see the huge shift west on the 12z GFS?

It was a jump but not enough to get me thinking this storm is on the table, what does the NAM show lol. Its only 24--36 hrs out.

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