01/12 Arctic Front Observations

A strong piece of northern short wave upper energy will undercut the Polar Vortex and dig into the eastern CONUS. How far south the upper energy digs will depend on how much - if any - snow we could see. Right now I'm thinking a minor 1 to 3 inch event is possible.



The GFS handles these northern stream events better than the EURO. Above is the H5 vort mAP from the 18z GFS and you can see the trough is fairly potent and has some negative tilt. If this tries to go negative sooner, the coastal storm will develop faster and closer to the coast with plenty of cold air to work with.





Some of the GFS individual ensemble members really blow the storm up and bring a moderate event to the area. We'll see how this trends over the weekend. Timing looks to be late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Umm love this idea right now for an appetizer here like i said earlier in the LR thread 1-3 maybe we can squeeze a 2-4 out of this.

Para has slop storm but the storm is there for the next one

Id say a classic quick 1-3" clipper from what I see on the GFS and CMC, more north.

I would LOVE to get a simple 4 inches of snow from this.

Me too, lets hope this trends stronger, but hey i will take any snow at this point. Get my totals list going lol. Here in central CT saw some small piles snow, they must had some recently.

Still some small piles of sleet/snow here from that storm that happened almost two weeks ago.

as little as I know....I surfed last week....the water is about 52 degrees....any interaction with this little clipper could amplify things....just a thought

If the clipper gets stronger the less likely we will have a storm after right?

LB3147 wrote:as little as I know....I surfed last week....the water is about 52 degrees....any interaction with this little clipper could amplify things....just a thought

Good point. Coastal enhancement has been hinted at on the models.

justin92 wrote:If the clipper gets stronger the less likely we will have a storm after right?

Actually, a strong clipper would be good. It would eventually turn into our 50/50 Low.

Early on but the 00z GFS looking good with this so far.

The digging trend continues, I'm liking this run.

Closes off at hour 93

And precip shield looking better. Should be a good run.

Hour 96 light snow moving in, hoping for some enhancement the next few frames.

Just looks like light snow showers this run, BUT maybe the ratios could be good.

Looks like C-2".

00z GFS

What about the next storm?

justin92 wrote:What about the next storm?

Check long range thread

0z Euro not interested in this event.

This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.

Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC

sroc4 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.

Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC

The Atlantic temps will not effect us much since the flow is heavily out the the W/NW. It should not have any effect on the precip shield, or moisture content of the air mass.

This sucks......in a winter that so far has sucked too.

Remember, good waiters get good tips!

This system is losing some steam but there's still 3 full days of changes that could reinitiate the enhancement along the coast. There's a lot of upper level vorticity along the Arctic front.