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Following the potential for another system to come together for Turkey day into Black Friday

01/12 Arctic Front Observations

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NJ Strong Weather Forum  :: NJ Strong Weather Discussions :: Official Weather Talk Thread

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01/12 Arctic Front Observations Empty 01/12 Arctic Front Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:11 pm

A strong piece of northern short wave upper energy will undercut the Polar Vortex and dig into the eastern CONUS. How far south the upper energy digs will depend on how much - if any - snow we could see. Right now I'm thinking a minor 1 to 3 inch event is possible.

01/12 Arctic Front Observations 569032afdd081_January8201650457PMEST.thumb.png.518a560684d32b54bed46883c3447d9b

The GFS handles these northern stream events better than the EURO. Above is the H5 vort mAP from the 18z GFS and you can see the trough is fairly potent and has some negative tilt. If this tries to go negative sooner, the coastal storm will develop faster and closer to the coast with plenty of cold air to work with.

01/12 Arctic Front Observations GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

01/12 Arctic Front Observations GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

Some of the GFS individual ensemble members really blow the storm up and bring a moderate event to the area. We'll see how this trends over the weekend. Timing looks to be late Tuesday into early Wednesday.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:18 pm

Umm love this idea right now for an appetizer here like i said earlier in the LR thread 1-3 maybe we can squeeze a 2-4 out of this.

Para has slop storm but the storm is there for the next one

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:22 pm

01/12 Arctic Front Observations Gfs_asnow_neus_20

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:11 pm

Id say a classic quick 1-3" clipper from what I see on the GFS and CMC, more north.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:27 pm

I would LOVE to get a simple 4 inches of snow from this.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:56 pm

I would be happy with 2 or 3  inches of snow I really want snow so bad

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:13 pm

Me too, lets hope this trends stronger, but hey i will take any snow at this point. Get my totals list going lol. Here in central CT saw some small piles snow, they must had some recently.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:36 pm

Still some small piles of sleet/snow here from that storm that happened almost two weeks ago.
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Post by LB3147 Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:43 pm

as little as I know....I surfed last week....the water is about 52 degrees....any interaction with this little clipper could amplify things....just a thought

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Post by justin92 Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:39 pm

If the clipper gets stronger the less likely we will have a storm after right?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:01 pm

LB3147 wrote:as little as I know....I surfed last week....the water is about 52 degrees....any interaction with this little clipper could amplify things....just a thought

Good point. Coastal enhancement has been hinted at on the models.

justin92 wrote:If the clipper gets stronger the less likely we will have a storm after right?

Actually, a strong clipper would be good. It would eventually turn into our 50/50 Low.

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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:58 pm

Early on but the 00z GFS looking good with this so far.

The digging trend continues, I'm liking this run.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:00 pm

Closes off at hour 93

And precip shield looking better. Should be a good run.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:03 pm

Hour 96 light snow moving in, hoping for some enhancement the next few frames.
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:04 pm

Just looks like light snow showers this run, BUT maybe the ratios could be good.

Looks like C-2".
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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:12 pm

00z GFS

01/12 Arctic Front Observations Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

01/12 Arctic Front Observations Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17

01/12 Arctic Front Observations Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18

01/12 Arctic Front Observations Gfs_asnow_neus_19
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Post by justin92 Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:17 pm

What about the next storm?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:04 am

justin92 wrote:What about the next storm?

Check long range thread

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Post by snow247 Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:28 am

0z Euro not interested in this event.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:12 am

This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:27 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.


Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC

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Post by Quietace Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:41 am

sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is drying out as runs continue, feeling like it will turn to a C-1" iso 2 north if youre lucky.


Certainly cant disagree with that.  My hope is that the moisture depiction is underplayed and the warm atlantic will enhance things..a little.  That prob wont be well modeled until the hi res short range models take a look or even nowcast if that theory holds at all.  Most likely it would only benefit areas north and/or east of NYC
The Atlantic temps will not effect us much since the flow is heavily out the the W/NW. It should not have any effect on the precip shield, or moisture content of the air mass.


Last edited by Quietace on Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:13 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:13 am

This sucks......in a winter that so far has sucked too.

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Post by Mathgod55 Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:31 am

Remember, good waiters get good tips!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:34 am

This system is losing some steam but there's still 3 full days of changes that could reinitiate the enhancement along the coast. There's a lot of upper level vorticity along the Arctic front.

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