Re: 01/12 Arctic Front Observations

by **amugs** Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:57 pm

This could be an awesome 29 minutes for some, trending looks good so far for this light event.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:22 pm

snow247 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
snow247 wrote:Feel like this will have some surprises.

Maybe, I wish the transfer would happen at our latitude. Perhaps the squall line surprises us with blizzard-like conditions for those lucky enough to be under those cells.

Any chance that it still could? Probably not right?

Not enough digging. The PV is in total control of any vort that breaks off from it.

by **snow247** Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:42 pm

I see. At least it's something.

by **snow247** Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:55 pm

00z GFS

01/12 Arctic Front Observations - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_4

01/12 Arctic Front Observations - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_11

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:09 am

A half inch around here Ill take it...

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:10 am

Radar looks good out west, of course mountains will eat most up as per usual.

by **snow247** Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:16 am

6z GFS

01/12 Arctic Front Observations - Page 4 Gfs_asnow_neus_9

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:34 am

Some precip making over the mountains now. Not certain how much is reaching the ground.
01/12 Arctic Front Observations - Page 4 Nerad25

01/12 Arctic Front Observations - Page 4 CCX.N0X.20160112.1330

01/12 Arctic Front Observations - Page 4 CCX.N0Q.20160112.1329

by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:41 am

I hope it all makes it here intact right during the late afternoon when we're all near 40 degrees so we can get some good rain!! CAUSE THAT"S WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN PEOPLE! It's just the way this winter is.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:49 am

Low of 14 last night. At least the ground is nice and cold for whatever tries to fall as snow!

by **snow247** Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:00 am

WHERE ANY LIFT IS ENHANCED...ANY MODERATE SNOW BURST COULD RESULT IN
A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. BEST CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR
SUCH AS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SRN CT. THE SNOW IN
COMBO WITH STRONGER WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CREATE TEMPORARY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:02 am

syosnow94 wrote:I hope it all makes it here intact right during the late afternoon when we're all near 40 degrees so we can get some good rain!! CAUSE THAT"S WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN PEOPLE! It's just the way this winter is.

For you, that is certainty possible. For those N/W and inland, not so much. The column is pretty frigid aloft so any precip that falls will cool the surface/lower levels down to web bulb temp via evaporation.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:32 am

Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I hope it all makes it here intact right during the late afternoon when we're all near 40 degrees so we can get some good rain!! CAUSE THAT"S WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN PEOPLE! It's just the way this winter is.
For you, that is certainty possible. For those N/W and inland, not so much. The column is pretty frigid aloft so any precip that falls will cool the surface/lower levels down to web bulb temp via evaporation.

First off syo your a hoot, I am starting to get grumpy myself but ace, am I far enough north or will I likely see rain to snow also? I know it wont be much even if it does stay all snow but it would be gr8 to see something.

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:46 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I hope it all makes it here intact right during the late afternoon when we're all near 40 degrees so we can get some good rain!! CAUSE THAT"S WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN PEOPLE! It's just the way this winter is.
For you, that is certainty possible. For those N/W and inland, not so much. The column is pretty frigid aloft so any precip that falls will cool the surface/lower levels down to web bulb temp via evaporation.

First off syo your a hoot, I am starting to get grumpy myself but ace, am I far enough north or will I likely see rain to snow also? I know it wont be much even if it does stay all snow but it would be gr8 to see something.

You will probably stay all snow. Only those South and East who will get into the 40's will have to make the transition. Like I said, the upper levels are all supportive for frozen precip, temps ahead of the front are rising fast; but it wont take too much precip to cool the column. Most wet bulb temps are in the upper 20s over the area.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:53 am

its 32 right now here with a wind chill of 26 but it feels much warmer..I guess because no wind...it is forecasted to be 45 today..so I guess no flakes for us...quietace are you still home or back at school...

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:02 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:its 32 right now here with a wind chill of 26 but it feels much warmer..I guess because no wind...it is forecasted to be 45 today..so I guess no flakes for us...quietace are you still home or back at school...

I'm home until the 24th. Taking cases online during the winterim, hence why I have been more active of late.

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:09 am

snow247 wrote:
WHERE ANY LIFT IS ENHANCED...ANY MODERATE SNOW BURST COULD RESULT IN
A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. BEST CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR
SUCH AS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SRN CT. THE SNOW IN
COMBO WITH STRONGER WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CREATE TEMPORARY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

i'm patiently waiting and watching to see flakes fall

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:05 pm

NWS mentions high winds possibly gusting to WA criteria tonight and tomorrow Frank, is this true?

by **snow247** Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:21 pm

Cloudy here and holding steady at 34. Thinking that might be the high for me today.

The sky has that pre-snow look to it. Smile

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:23 pm

by **1190ftalt** Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:33 pm

Just started snowing in Stillwater NJ

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:07 pm

40 here on LI after a low of 14. Sky looks like snow. Also DP is still in low 20s so wet bulbing should occur

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:36 pm

Radar shows snow over nyc and Westchester western li but not doing anything in the bronx.

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Radar shows snow over nyc and Westchester western li but not doing anything in the bronx.

Have to saturate the column first. Light precip is just fall streaks right now.

by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:50 pm

NWS just lowered my expected snowfall from less than 1" TO NOTHING!

by **Dtone** Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Radar shows snow over nyc and Westchester western li but not doing anything in the bronx.

yeah its not reaching the ground. Its showing rain now anyway for NYC and Westchester from I 287 & south.
44* here. Even north of 287 where it may be snowing its upper 30s to 40.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:07 pm

This sounds serious. Everyone please use extreme caution

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DANGEROUS SNOW FLURRIES WITH A POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING SNOW SHOWER IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE MAY LOCALLY CONTAIN HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF SNOW FLAKES FOR A BRIEF TIME.

UNLESS YOU PUT ON YOUR WINDSHIELD WIPERS VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IF YOU SIT IDLE IN YOUR CAR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND LET THE FLURRIES ACCUMULATE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.

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