June 2016 Observations & Discussions

The stretch of nice weather we saw to conclude May will continue to start June. Changes are on the horizon though. As it states above, next week should feature a bit of a cool down.

WOW - where again as this in Dec or even Feb - woudl have been a beaut BUT....

Monday blues here - could be some severe action with this set up

Okay the GEFS build in a trough from the midwest this weekend through next weekend and relaxes but only to Normal and then the 15th it tries to build in another trough - interesting - I am assuming this is in response to the IO Dipole crash along with SOI in conjunction with teh transition from Nino to Nina and the off the charts PDO

Indian Ocean Dipole - Look at how this was in our winter - uggh!!




Nino
3.4 - La Nada or Nuetral heading down under


4 ditto



1.2 down again



[img][url=https://servimg.com/view/18554455/57[/url][/img]

Look at the PDO - line along teh west coast and slopes back towards the Nina cold blue finger.

PNA spike in the west causes the trough the east


it doesn't want to leave



EPO goes big time positive again and the NAO is very Neg here - lots of blockiness



So what does this spell ??
Cool and Wet in the NE

Some rain showers tomorrow morning into mid afternoon. Will clear out by evening.

Sunday into early Monday looks especially unsettled. Around 1 inch of rain possible. Can't rule out a spotty shower on Saturday either. A "meh" weekend on tap.

4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

amugs wrote:4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

C'mon mugs, you know that band of heavy rain will trend #southandeast!

Sunday potential for severe weather.

at least memorial day weekend was nice? paying the price now lol. Crappy temps and crappy weather

64* overcast.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Sunday potential for severe weather.

I'm not that impressed. I think there will be storms but not sold on severity

71 deg and cloudy had some light rain before nothing crazy just a crappy day at least tom it will be nice

It has pushed northward some

Even though I believe there will be a Tornado watch for teh areas S & W of the NYC Metro area the HRRR and Hi Res NAM are showing a strong line of severe storms that may impact our area with teh warm front. It is going to be interesting as the days goes on today but check out the latest loop of the HRRR - pretty impressive.

The PWATS for teh area are high but not as high as the SNJ, MD, DE and SPA areas.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016060412&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3

Wow what a big difference from yesterday's weather to today it's humid and muggy I hope we have good t storms tom

frank 638 wrote:Wow what a big difference from yesterday's weather to today it's humid and muggy I hope we have good t storms tom

Theirs a good chance we will

does anyone know what time we will see showers and thunderstorms

The SPC pushed the yellow and orange even more north.

amugs wrote:Even though I believe there will be a Tornado watch for teh areas S & W of the NYC Metro area the HRRR and Hi Res NAM are showing a strong line of severe storms that may impact our area with teh warm front. It is going to be interesting as the days goes on today but check out the latest loop of the HRRR - pretty impressive.

The PWATS for teh area are high but not as high as the SNJ, MD, DE and SPA areas.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016060412&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3  

I wouldnt be surprised to see most of the area under a svr t-storm watch or tornado watch tomorrow later. Though looks by HRRR there may be some less strong storms earlier in the day so is the day pretty much a washout?

Rain expected most of the day tomorrow. Looks like SPC still believes in the severe weather threat. I felt there will be too many clouds around that would keep the airmass too stable. We'll see....

Hey Frank I am not that savy on the technical discussions by spc as the words they use are not english lol, but it seems they think there will be enough instability without a lot of sun heating.

Math23x7 wrote:

amugs wrote:4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

C'mon mugs, you know that band of heavy rain will trend #southandeast!

I like the little rainband circles from bonnie down by carolinas that looks cool. That tiny rain band is rather odd.

We may get a break for a few hours late morning, early afternoon before the front comes through late tomorrow. Looks like it will come through NNJ about 9-10 pm.

Its pouring.
been raining on and off for a few hrs now its really coming down. I didnt expect so much rain so early.