Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[amugs]

Look at the Snow Growth in Siberia - WOW!!



1 week ago

[sroc4]

Look at the Snow Growth in Siberia - WOW!!



1 week ago

Departure from normal:

[sroc4]

I figured Id post this just to shift the gears of the brain, if not briefly.  It certainly appears that the persistent easterlies throughout the month of Sept have done their dirty work and shifted all Nino regions back towards weak La Nina status, with the exception of Nino 1+2 which is neutral.  IO conts to cool as well.  One thing I may be concerned with is the warmest anomalies seem to be setting up N of Austrailia and Indonesia which coincide with MJO regions 4-6.  If the strongest forcing/convection sets up in this region, and gets stuck there during the winter months we could end up with Warm anomalies over the east.  This is all simply a big if.  Many other aspects to consider, but just a thought.      








Also on a positive note Siberian snow cover continues to grow above normal.

[amugs]

Siberia will get a huge boost by the AO going N over the next week and a half - rocky is going to grow - woo hoo!!

[amugs]

And look at how we are growing here

10-5 Today


Last week

[frank 638]

Amugs I like the snow map u posted . I think this year their is more snow on the map than last year I look forward for this winter and I am crossing my fingers for a  white Christmas

[Frank_Wx]

I figured Id post this just to shift the gears of the brain, if not briefly.  It certainly appears that the persistent easterlies throughout the month of Sept have done their dirty work and shifted all Nino regions back towards weak La Nina status, with the exception of Nino 1+2 which is neutral.  IO conts to cool as well.  One thing I may be concerned with is the warmest anomalies seem to be setting up N of Austrailia and Indonesia which coincide with MJO regions 4-6.  If the strongest forcing/convection sets up in this region, and gets stuck there during the winter months we could end up with Warm anomalies over the east.  This is all simply a big if.  Many other aspects to consider, but just a thought.      








Also on a positive note Siberian snow cover continues to grow above normal.

Good post. I'll begin gathering data for winter outlook in another 2 weeks. Your concern is NOTED

[Isotherm]

Keep in mind, above normal snow cover in the NHEM isn't necessarily a good indicator right now, at least insofar as the SAI. Weeks 42-44 (mid/late October) are most critical with respect to the rapid increase of snowfall. Since rate of change seems to be most strongly correlated with the ensuing NAM, initiating the process with high snowfall decreases the probability that the rate of increase will be impressive. Thus, as far as the SAI is concerned, one would rather have below normal snow cover now transitioning toward much above. However, an overarching disclaimer is that the SAI is merely one tool. I couple winters ago (2013-14 I believe), we had an unimpressive SAI but robust SCE, and the ensuing AO was slightly negative. So, it's not the be all end all of course.

[amugs]

Keep in mind, above normal snow cover in the NHEM isn't necessarily a good indicator right now, at least insofar as the SAI. Weeks 42-44 (mid/late October) are most critical with respect to the rapid increase of snowfall. Since rate of change seems to be most strongly correlated with the ensuing NAM, initiating the process with high snowfall decreases the probability that the rate of increase will be impressive. Thus, as far as the SAI is concerned, one would rather have below normal snow cover now transitioning toward much above. However, an overarching disclaimer is that the SAI is merely one tool. I couple winters ago (2013-14 I believe), we had an unimpressive SAI but robust SCE, and the ensuing AO was slightly negative. So, it's not the be all end all of course.

Interesting - Bill Goodman from NWS said in a NJWO group presentation that NWS and long forecasters use the SAI and what they construe as the snow intensification growth (I think this is what you are saying) as a strong, much heavily weighted prognosticator for the AO values come winter in the means. He said the from the 1st week of October (now)to the 1st week of November (30 day indicator)is what their main concern is well information to see how the growth has developed. It is a small envelope in the massive fluid dynamic of our atmosphere but interesting to note.

[algae888]

Steve d has his December forecast out he says temperatures and precipitation near normal I will take that in a heartbeat also he states that the stratosphere polar vortex is much weaker this year compared to last and if we get good snow growth it could mean a weakening or split early this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

Over the next few weeks I'll begin gathering and analyzing data in preparation for my winter outlook release. We'll also have a get together sometime in November...a date should be announced next week. In the meantime, we'll use this thread to talk about the long range.



We're entering the time of year where the Polar Vortex will begin to establish itself over the Arctic. You can see it over the Arctic Circle in this image. It's important to note the PV is weaker this year than it was this time last year. I'll discuss the potential upside that may have on our winter in the outlook.

This image is 500mb height anonalies in the next 7 to 10 days. Check out the deep trough in the northeast Pacific. We have a roaring Pacific northern jet extending from Asia into the PAC NW of the U.S. These two elements in our atmosphere (trough and jet) should keep us under normal to slightly above normal temps for the rest of October.

There is some east based blocking, shown by the positive heights east of Greenland, that will keep a weak trough over northern parts of our area but mainly New England. We'll likely be stuck in the middle between the northern trough and southwestern ridge for the remainder of the month.

Happy tracking!

[amugs]

The Arctic has seen the quickest refreeze ever recorded with the extent of sea ice growing 405,000 square miles in just three weeks since the September 10, 2016 minimum.  The Danish Meteorological Institute said that refreezing is happening at the fastest rate since its daily records began in 1987.

[chief7]

has anybody heard anything about the euro monthlies I believe they come out on the 8th of every month

[amugs]

La Nina coming on
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +0.1 (-0.5)
Nino 3: -0.6 (-0.4)
Nino 3.4: -0.9 (-0.1)
Nino 4: -0.6 (-0.1)

[Snow88]

Euro monthlies have a -AO and -EPO pattern for December and January in the east

[algae888]

This is a piece of cohen's analysis from October 7th regarding the AO/strat and the upcoming winter...
"Both low sea ice and the negative AO are favorable for the rapid advance of Siberian snow cover.  Eurasian snow cover is above normal and this trend should continue through at least mid-month. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex in winter.
The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere are unusually weak so far this fall, if this trend continues severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States (US)."

[algae888]

More....
"mpacts

In previous blogs I noted the unusually negative AO in the stratosphere and that the strong positive polar cap height anomalies look to be descending down into the troposphere.  The weak stratospheric polar vortex has now been followed by an unusually weak tropospheric polar vortex and a deeply negative tropospheric AO.  This is not the time of year when tropospheric-stratospheric coupling is considered active but the most recent polar cap height anomaly (PCH) plot is certainly suggestive of a downward propagation of warm/positive PCH from the stratosphere to the troposphere.  Regardless, the tropospheric AO is strongly negative, which favors widespread cold temperatures across the NH mid-latitudes, especially northern Eurasia and a rapid advance in snow cover especially Siberia and to a lesser extent Canada.  October Eurasian snow cover extent is a key predictor in our winter forecast and if our expectations are correct that Eurasian snow cover will be above normal for the month of October, this will bias our model colder for the winter forecast.
As I have discussed in previous blogs, the Arctic sea ice is well below normal and possibly most importantly for longer term weather sea ice is below normal in the Barents-Kara seas.  This will also bias the winter forecast colder.  Also with the likelihood that the AO will be strongly negative right through the middle of October, October 2016 will probably rival other recent Octobers for the most negative October AO observed, which include October 2002 and 2009.  And though there is not a strong relationship between the October AO and the winter AO, the winter AO in 2002/03 and 2009/10 were both negative and cold temperatures were widespread both across northern Eurasia and the Eastern US.  However the AO was much more negative in the latter winter and the evolution of the polar vortex was quite different.  It is still very early and the outcome of this winter still very much in doubt but in my opinion, the longer that the tropospheric and/or stratospheric polar vortex remain weak and the AO negative, favors a colder winter solution."

[amugs]

Up close - look at these beauties

[amugs]

Interesting article on Autumnal AO and regards to correlation with Winter AO in teh emans regime

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract

Also lets not forget the NAO July prognosticator that is to give us a clue as to the Winter regime for the NAO - If Negative in July then science is theorizing that it will be Negative in January but also in the means for the winter.

2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

[Frank_Wx]

Long range is beginning to have a winter feel to it. Cold air gradually working its way into the CONUS.

[sroc4]

Long range is beginning to have a winter feel to it. Cold air gradually working its way into the CONUS.

Images like this excite me. I hope we see these sorts of images all winter:

[amugs]

Interesting article on Autumnal AO and regards to correlation with Winter AO in teh emans regime

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract

Also lets not forget the NAO July prognosticator that is to give us a clue as to the Winter regime for the NAO - If Negative in July then science is theorizing that it will be Negative in January but also in the means for the winter.

2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

LA NINA WATCH IS BACK!!! NOAA SAYS SO

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-alert-system

[sroc4]

Interesting article on Autumnal AO and regards to correlation with Winter AO in teh emans regime

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract

Also lets not forget the NAO July prognosticator that is to give us a clue as to the Winter regime for the NAO - If Negative in July then science is theorizing that it will be Negative in January but also in the means for the winter.

2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

LA NINA WATCH IS BACK!!! NOAA SAYS SO

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-alert-system

Hmmm I believe a certain someone about a month ago said to not buy into the Nina cancel just yet.

[amugs]

Interesting article on Autumnal AO and regards to correlation with Winter AO in teh emans regime

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract

Also lets not forget the NAO July prognosticator that is to give us a clue as to the Winter regime for the NAO - If Negative in July then science is theorizing that it will be Negative in January but also in the means for the winter.

2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

LA NINA WATCH IS BACK!!! NOAA SAYS SO

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-alert-system

Hmmm I believe a certain someone about a month ago said to not buy into the Nina cancel just yet.

Mushy?? The person you referenced to Ryan in his research in the Banter thread?

This is what I am talkin' about peeps - bring the goods and build the snow pack to our North and we will take these vorts that drop down and keep them cold - wont moderate much if any!

[jmanley32]

Wow snow already that much by Nov
25th!

[sroc4]

Interesting article on Autumnal AO and regards to correlation with Winter AO in teh emans regime

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract

Also lets not forget the NAO July prognosticator that is to give us a clue as to the Winter regime for the NAO - If Negative in July then science is theorizing that it will be Negative in January but also in the means for the winter.

2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

LA NINA WATCH IS BACK!!! NOAA SAYS SO

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-alert-system

Hmmm I believe a certain someone about a month ago said to not buy into the Nina cancel just yet.

Mushy?? The person you referenced to Ryan in his research in the Banter thread?

This is what I am talkin' about peeps - bring the goods and build the snow pack to our North and we will take these vorts that drop down and keep them cold - wont moderate much if any!

LOL Sorry about that MUGSY. My phone Auto corrected the shy-za out me. I guess we both knew the Nina cancel was premature.

[amugs]

Check this map out, holy chripes the SAI may be off the charts!!

[Sponsored content]