Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[sroc4]

Interesting article on Autumnal AO and regards to correlation with Winter AO in teh emans regime

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4616/abstract

Also lets not forget the NAO July prognosticator that is to give us a clue as to the Winter regime for the NAO - If Negative in July then science is theorizing that it will be Negative in January but also in the means for the winter.

2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61

La Nina
28SEP2016     21.2 0.6     24.7-0.2     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.5
05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6

LA NINA WATCH IS BACK!!! NOAA SAYS SO

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-alert-system

Hmmm I believe a certain someone about a month ago said to not buy into the Nina cancel just yet.

Mushy?? The person you referenced to Ryan in his research in the Banter thread?

This is what I am talkin' about peeps - bring the goods and build the snow pack to our North and we will take these vorts that drop down and keep them cold - wont moderate much if any!

LOL Sorry about that MUGSY. My phone Auto corrected the shy-za out me. I guess we both knew the Nina cancel was premature.

[amugs]

Check this map out, holy chripes the SAI may be off the charts!!

[billg315]

I have been analyzing sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, Eurasian snow-cover, sun spot activity, and climatological trends. All of that is trumped by the fact that the squirrels in my backyard have been super-busy gathering nuts and stocking up. One of them even had a stare-down with me the other day. This tells me we will have below normal temps and above normal snowfall this winter. The squirrels always know.

[sroc4]

I have been analyzing sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, Eurasian snow-cover, sun spot activity, and climatological trends. All of that is trumped by the fact that the squirrels in my backyard have been super-busy gathering nuts and stocking up. One of them even had a stare-down with me the other day.  This tells me we will have below normal temps and above normal snowfall this winter. The squirrels always know.

Im convinced.

[amugs]

JAMSTEC out with SST and 2M Temps - they contradict each other IMO - you have this for SST

+PDO,  Weak Nina, -NAO set up




2M Temps All out Torch



What should be is a -EPO with that Plus pool of waters in the GOA and along the NW NA coast. ALso a weak nina doesn't give us that warmth - strong yes but not weak.

[amugs]

Also IO Dipole crashing which will help the Nina and cut the warm pool of feedback/strengthening loop

[skinsfan1177]

I have been analyzing sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, Eurasian snow-cover, sun spot activity, and climatological trends. All of that is trumped by the fact that the squirrels in my backyard have been super-busy gathering nuts and stocking up. One of them even had a stare-down with me the other day.  This tells me we will have below normal temps and above normal snowfall this winter. The squirrels always know.

Omg finally someone else sees what I'm seeing. This year the squirrels have been ripping up my lawn way more than last year. Also slit more acorns as well.

[amugs]

BIG FAT Acorns - arborist who came to prune my trees Wed said he has not seen this many fat acorns sicen Whitman was Governor and had that horrible winter of 95-96. Nature always holds the answer - we just have to observe it. The ol' salty's always due and nail it.

[amugs]

NOW this would be something almost 100 years later: 1917/18

Pac is similar to this set up - cold pool west of GOA presently that we have to keep an eye on that could screw things up if it expands



Cool pool of H20 west of GOA

[Frank_Wx]

A friend graciously sent me the EURO monthlies. Sorry I can't post them. For December, they show one of the most sexiest patterns I've seen. +PNA/-EPO/-AO.

[amugs]

A friend graciously sent me the EURO monthlies. Sorry I can't post them. For December, they show one of the most sexiest patterns I've seen. +PNA/-EPO/-AO.

PB ? Garret? Give up the hook, pm me.
You're a tease with this post. Read the same on twitter, usa, JB and elsewhere. Wish it where November 25!!

[Frank_Wx]

A friend graciously sent me the EURO monthlies. Sorry I can't post them. For December, they show one of the most sexiest patterns I've seen. +PNA/-EPO/-AO.

PB ? Garret? Give up the hook, pm me.
You're a tease with this post. Read the same on twitter, usa, JB and elsewhere. Wish it where November 25!!

No, one of the guys I use to work with on EPAWA. For December, they are very nice.

[devsman]

A friend graciously sent me the EURO monthlies. Sorry I can't post them. For December, they show one of the most sexiest patterns I've seen. +PNA/-EPO/-AO.

PB ? Garret? Give up the hook, pm me.
You're a tease with this post. Read the same on twitter, usa, JB and elsewhere. Wish it where November 25!!

No, one of the guys I use to work with on EPAWA. For December, they are very nice.

How accurate is something like that this far out? A white christmas ...or boxing day would be nice.

[amugs]

Which one are u rooting for???

[frank 638]

For this winter I will take a weak la Nina

[amugs]

Now from Mr C not Cunningham eother ( for those who remember) 
PV is ina much weaker state that last year check as of right now

Figure 11. Observed and predicted daily polar cap height (i.e, area-averaged geopotential heights poleward of 60°N) standardized anomalies. The forecasts are from the 00Z 13 October 2016 GFS ensemble.

Though the stratospheric AO is currently negative it is predicted to trend positive towards neutral over the coming week.  However, the hemispheric atmospheric circulation next week (Figure 6a) does favor increased energy transfer from the troposphere into the stratosphere and this may lead to further weakening of the stratospheric PV and a return to a negative stratospheric AO both in the stratosphere and the troposphere (Figure 1).  A weak polar vortex in the troposphere and possibly the stratosphere and positive PCHs favor below normal temperatures across the NH mid-latitudes, especially across Northern Eurasia and the Eastern US. It is my opinion, as we head into November, monitoring the strength of the polar vortex in both the troposphere and the stratosphere will be the most important circulation index for anticipating winter weather variability.

[Frank_Wx]

After enjoying the warm temperatures this week, we'll turn our attention to a possible big rain event over the weekend. A weak low pressure system in the Atlantic may try to join forces with an incoming trough to produce a Nor'easter. Behind the front next weekend, temps below freezing are possible for much of the area.

[amugs]

Here it is tis morning 

[Frank_Wx]

Interesting set up Friday into Saturday this week. Blocking over the NAO regions will slow the flow down and allow a weak tropical disturbance in the Atlantic to form. A trough over the Great Lakes will move into the northeast and the upper energy associated with it may try to phase with the tropical disturbance. Could be an impressive Nor'easter if this comes together. 

[jmanley32]

Interesting set up Friday into Saturday this week. Blocking over the NAO regions will slow the flow down and allow a weak tropical disturbance in the Atlantic to form. A trough over the Great Lakes will move into the northeast and the upper energy associated with it may try to phase with the tropical disturbance. Could be an impressive Nor'easter if this comes together. 

Man I hope we can see something like this in the winter! Though storms do not usually come from the tropics. Are you thinking just boring rain or could it be a wind event too? If boring old deluge of rain NEXT! Is it safe though to say that next sat will be raining to some degree? I have outdoor plans that I should cancel or not yet?

[jmanley32]

x marks the spot

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[Frank_Wx]

Depending on how wrapped up the low gets there could be decent wind. Not thinking anything crazy though.

[jmanley32]

CMC and GFS are misse, the Trough digs all the way into FL going negative or neutral too late, if i am seeing it correctly and the LP over atlantic moves out.

[amugs]

This is looking very good if it comes to fruition

[amugs]

JB - making the correlation between the Negative AO in October and teh Winter Temp profile

Current Forecasted AO


Now lets look at winters that were bounceback off el ninos, and throw in 60-61 since its very close in the decadal sense ( as well as 14-15)



Hope he is right with this!!

[amugs]

EPO region still looking good.



IO dipole looks to go Neutral by Dec which would be good



from a decent Negative state now

[Snow88]

12z Euro at 240

Upstate and New England Weenies
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f240.png

Nice block with a lot of cold air pouring in. Possible transfer incoming to the coast after 240

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