Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[amugs]

This is nice - could have impacts down the road for cold air.

[amugs]

JMA is out - calls for Cold/Snowy hard "Flip" in Dec

[frank 638]

Bring it I want a cold snowy  Dec with a white Christmas we all know what we went threw last year .I would never want to see that again

[Frank_Wx]

Hi everyone. Good friend of mine who is a Meteorologist released his winter outlook today. His name is Mike DeFino.

http://truewx.com/files/TrueWeather_Winter_Outlook_2016-2017.pdf

[frank 638]

Hey frank I just read ur friend winter outlook he has done a great job on his post thanks for the good news

[nutleyblizzard]

Hi everyone. Good friend of mine who is a Meteorologist released his winter outlook today. His name is Mike DeFino.

http://truewx.com/files/TrueWeather_Winter_Outlook_2016-2017.pdf

Good read. Promising trends thus far. Here's hoping we all get pounded!

[algae888]

steve d winter forecast

[algae888]

oct 18th

oct 14th

[algae888]

a few tweets on strat..

D11-15 500 mb maps show -NAO & deep Pacific trough. Good combination for eddy heat fluxes into stratosphere. PV remains perturbed.

Next weekend's SCAND is pretty ridiculous. ~ 4-4.5 sigma?! Yeah that's gonna leave a mark on the polar vortex... #wave1

[Frank_Wx]

What is happening in the Stratosphere is pretty remarkable. Very unusual for this time of year. Easterly winds over the spring/summer months never reversed to westerly, which may have a significant impact on the Strat PV and winter forecast in general.

[Frank_Wx]

Going to get a little brisk next Sunday-Monday

[sroc4]

Going to get a little brisk next Sunday-Monday

[amugs]

Judah giving his prelim forecast through this site

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

@ Frank that post with the link about the winter forecast is very promising and in line with my thoughts so far but waiting till the first full week of Nov to write something up.

[amugs]

Flakes be flying

[sroc4]

Judah giving his prelim forecast through this site

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

@ Frank that post with the link about the winter forecast is very promising and in line with my thoughts so far but waiting till the first full week of Nov to write something up.

If you don't want to read:

[algae888]

With nino 3.4 warming the last few weeks and 1.2 falling off the cliff wondering if we will see a basin wide weak nina/neutral cold rather than mokoki. I believe if this happens will alter 500mb look and enhance trough east ridge west.

[algae888]

Judah giving his prelim forecast through this site

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

@ Frank that post with the link about the winter forecast is very promising and in line with my thoughts so far but waiting till the first full week of Nov to write something up.

If you don't want to read:

A lot of uncertainty with regards to cohen's theory on the SAI. However with a weak nina and a weak polar vortex I would weigh it more heavily this winter

[sroc4]

Judah giving his prelim forecast through this site

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

@ Frank that post with the link about the winter forecast is very promising and in line with my thoughts so far but waiting till the first full week of Nov to write something up.

If you don't want to read:

A lot of uncertainty with regards to cohen's theory on the SAI. However with a weak nina and a weak polar vortex I would weigh it more heavily this winter

I think his theories have proven pretty strong. That said anomalous years certainly still can throw a wrench in the works. Last years super Nino is a perfect example.  I haven't done it but I'd be interested in seeing how his theory has worked out in weak Nino to weak Niña and everything in between years. I believe it's a strong correlation.

[amugs]

NOAA says average/normal winter - OPengeo must have sent him his report and they agree!! Simply playing teh ENSO card here and no other variables if you read their report - typical. Bill Goodman told us at the Spet NJWO meeting that they strictly use ENSO as their forecast tool.

[amugs]

Ventrice saying from EURo ENS - Trough to our North with this Scandinavian Block that extends to Greenland - keeping us Normal temp wise hallo-ween (ie) to 1st week of Nov

[amugs]

Mid Nov pattern flip here by CFS?

[algae888]

From another board regarding AO...
This will be the 12th year since 1950 that the ao ave less than -1 for october. 8 of the 11 following winters had normal or above normal snowfall for nyc. 9 of 11 had at least one month of the ao ave <-1 and epo <-.5.
Here is the list. Oct ao, d-m lowest monthly ao, d-m lowest monthly epo nyc snowfall and brookhaven snowfall
Oct 2014...-1.134....+0.413...-1.34...50.3...62.2

Oct 2012...-1.514....-3.185...-0.81...26.1...50.8

Oct 2009...-1.540...-4.266...-2.15...51.4...67.8

Oct 2006...-1.029...-1.307...-0.03...12.4...9.5

Oct 2002...-1.489...-1.592...-1.13...49.3...62.1

Oct 1981...-1.167...-1.216...-0.58...24.6...32.1

Oct 1979...-1.243...-2.066...-0.72...12.8...11.0

Oct 1974...-1.024...+0.194..+0.51...13.1...17.3

Oct 1968...-1.013...-3.114...-0.81...30.2...31.4

Oct 1966...-1.077...-1.401...-1.20...51.5...74.9

Oct 1960...-1.187...-1.506...-0.89...54.7...57.5

[algae888]

^^^ also notice that this has happened 6 times since 2001 one of our snowiest periods and only once between 1980 and 1999 probably our least snowiest 20 year period even with 95/96 and 93/94 in the mix

[amugs]

A GOOD READ WEENIES!! NYNJPA weather

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/

[amugs]

CLIFF NOTES

winter
So to recap this forecast for the Northern Mid Atlantic. This is expected to be colder than last year, honestly not a stretch there, and will be focused more in December, January, and early February this year. The Polar jet stream will be the dominant jet stream with storm tracks focused towards the Great Lakes, redeveloping over the Mid Atlantic coastal waters, and from the southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast. There is potential for a significant snow and ice gradient through the year via this type of storm tracks.

[sroc4]

A GOOD READ WEENIES!! NYNJPA weather

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/

He stole my avatar!! WTF!!

[amugs]

AO to tank WOW - Isotherm and others are talking about the correlation between the AO in October and the mean for the winter - WOOP WOOP!!



AND.............this will help with teh snow growth!!! DOUBLE WOOP WOOP!!

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