Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Frank_Wx]

The Stratosphere continues to amaze me. Very unique for this time of year. Still a little early to take any one factor too seriously, but we're looking at an abnormal PV heading into Meteorological winter.

[nutleyblizzard]

The Stratosphere continues to amaze me. Very unique for this time of year. Still a little early to take any one factor too seriously, but we're looking at an abnormal PV heading into Meteorological winter.

If this keeps up much longer with the unusual PV behavior, we may very well have a dominate -AO regime this winter. Yes it is a bit early to sound the alarms but the chances for a banner winter are starting to look more likely. We will know much more on our fate in the next month.

[amugs]

Again 1995 -96 had Ana bnormal.PV split in November, I see a triplet to quadrup let sceme rio AO and EPO alo g with NAO Negatibe in the means with a POS PDO and PNA. 

I just read a piece from a met who has studied the NAO and AO relationship amd that over the past years since 1950 that NAO and AO when Neg are usually both neg with a variation of .5 between them. That is something g and pretty amazing inmho.

Means of the AO is Neg 1 then the NAO is + - .5 so it could be Neg 1.5 or .5. Interesting statistical analysis. Learn sumtin new each and everyday. The beauty of this dynamic fluid we call WEATHER!!

[sroc4]

Love it when you talk dirty Mugs

[amugs]

Love it when you talk dirty Mugs

Easy now Cowboy this buckin bronco is gettin' ready to ride - just the beginning here my man!! GIDEEEEEE UPPPPPP !!!

Check out this analogue from Joe D as per the SST, Nina state, IO state - the blend of those years - interesting!



Oi ve plus a double shot of MADONNNNEEEE!!!!!

SST how teh H did they do this analysis from back then - captains logs???











WOOOF WOOF!!

[sroc4]

Love it when you talk dirty Mugs

Easy now Cowboy this buckin bronco is gettin' ready to ride - just the beginning here my man!! GIDEEEEEE UPPPPPP !!!

Check out this analogue from Joe D as per the SST, Nina state, IO state - the blend of those years - interesting!



Oi ve plus a double shot of MADONNNNEEEE!!!!!


WOOOF WOOF!!

If this came to fruition hopefully it wouldnt lead to suppression depression. That looks frigid.

[amugs]

Good sign for the drought upcoming

[algae888]

very nino ish. ridge west lower heights s/e. mugs the super nino lag effect?

[nutleyblizzard]

Mr. G came out with his winter forecast. He believes it will be a backloaded one with above normal temps and below normal snowfall for December and January, followed by below normal temps and much above snowfall for February.

[frank 638]

i hope he is wrong about that we dont need a another warm dec like last year

[nutleyblizzard]

i hope he is wrong about that we dont need a another warm dec like last year

I'm not buying into his forecast. With the way the stratosphere is behaving this fall, I believe we will start to transition into a colder regime by mid November. By the time December comes around we will be off and running. Let's see how it plays out. Can't wait for Frank's thoughts for the winter.

[Snow88]

Euro Weeklies

Looks great from mid NOV through mid DEC

-EPO, -AO, -NAO

[amugs]

Euro Weeklies

Looks great from mid NOV through mid DEC

-EPO, -AO, -NAO

U beat me to it Snow - just read this on twitter - GIDEE UP !!

[amugs]

very nino ish. ridge west lower heights s/e. mugs the super nino lag effect?

Yup, if you remember I wrote about this from research i read back in Sept. Usually a 6 month hangover effect BUT it will not be the driver as is was last winter but will have some influences on the 500mb level. Usually it favors us from what I have read with effect over teh top - Arctic warming = N AO and NAO and EPO. We shall see.

[amugs]

Mid November flip to trough inNE and cold stormy conditions as per CFS

[Frank_Wx]

Next week is looking pretty warm. GEFS and EPS agree the southeast ridge will amplify over our area. It's possible by the middle to end of November we observe a pattern change to colder than normal weather, but I am not enthused about it just yet. Pattern changes this early in the season are not easy to come by and I think the lag time from what we're seeing in the Stratosphere will take time to reflect at the surface. 

[algae888]

nino 1.2 has cooled significantly the last 2 weeks and is now neg. sub surface cold is now concentrated in nino 1.2 and 3. while enso should not be the main driver this winter an east based nina/neg. neutral could lead to more tropical forcing near the dateline rather than near Indonesia. this could help enhance the polar jet and lead to more cold outbreaks in the eastern US.

[amugs]

@AL great point above
The CFSv2 in line with the EURO

CFS v2
DEC




JAN

[Snow88]

WOW
GFS splits the PV by next week

[amugs]

WOW
GFS splits the PV by next week

[algae888]

this from a met from another board. dt agrees...
"It seems to me too many of the forecasts out there so far, including NOAA's are going too heavy with a Nina look.  This is really a piss poor excuse for a La Nina right now.  Going hard core with the whole Plains cold and snowy and SE ridge seems like a dangerous proposition.  In addition, we are coming off an insanely strong El Nino and there is often some sort of lag in the behavior of the atmosphere.  That lag has been pronounced before in stronger Ninas following big Ninos and stronger Ninos following Ninas, so I'd be really wary of it showing up here."

[amugs]

this from a met from another board. dt agrees...
"It seems to me too many of the forecasts out there so far, including NOAA's are going too heavy with a Nina look.  This is really a piss poor excuse for a La Nina right now.  Going hard core with the whole Plains cold and snowy and SE ridge seems like a dangerous proposition.  In addition, we are coming off an insanely strong El Nino and there is often some sort of lag in the behavior of the atmosphere.  That lag has been pronounced before in stronger Ninas following big Ninos and stronger Ninos following Ninas, so I'd be really wary of it showing up here."

Hence my right up and the Met from NE who wrote the abstract/article on the "Hangover" effects of El Nino and the 6 month lag period from such. No wthis was a super nino - anomalous so teh hangover col dbe like teh movie longer lasting (not as funny). Good work though I see teh core of the cold more towards the GL than the Northern Plains - all depends on where the AO sets up and the EPO.

[dkodgis]

A vortex that has shifted is a vortex that has weakened...but this article says that plus it paints very tough winters ahead.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

[amugs]

From a friend on another board who is close to JB and JB is frickin pumped about this winter - can't wait to read his latest winter update this week!!

Back in late January 2014 he was so fired up during a convo that he thought Feb 2014 was going to be -7 , I remember posting that NYC would finish -5 but deep down I thought I was dead for even suggesting that . Also I opined I would give the board 500 if we did not finish- 5 .

Well we finished- 10.
Good for me.

Now today he is just as fired up now for December and thinks this could be a 3 to 4 week period of- 5 from ST Louis to the EC.

You guys will not like Dec 83 , because we flipped to a torch the rest of the way
but he thinks something like that kind of cold is going to show up here like it has in Asia this month.

Let me add he doesn't think we have 83-84 winter BUT believes teh cold in ASIA will make its way to our side of teh globe come DEC - MADONNE check this out

[amugs]

Looky what I spy with my little eye?? HMMMM? A trough building in the east - oh boy - flip time??

EURO EPS 12Z


18Z GEFS

[amugs]

^^^^ Map above ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
See that BIG blue circular trough South of the Aleutian Islands? As winter goes on that should retrograde more west allowing for the heights to rise over Alaska giving us a Neg EPO and +PNA which will help drive our winter. This is a seasonal atmospheric change in this region.
Look at the PNA spike and N AO setting up on those maps. Look at below that AO .

[amugs]

[Sponsored content]