Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[amugs]

^^^^ Map above ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
See that BIG blue circular trough South of the Aleutian Islands? As winter goes on that should retrograde more west allowing for the heights to rise over Alaska giving us a Neg EPO and +PNA which will help drive our winter. This is a seasonal atmospheric change in this region.
Look at the PNA spike and N AO setting up on those maps. Look at below that AO .

[amugs]

[Frank_Wx]

If the Aleutian trough shown in the long range on the Ensembles is real, that will lock cold over the eastern U.S. beginning the week of November 6th. Since I will be in Nashville, TN between the 7th and 11th, expect the first significant snow of the season to occur then

[amugs]

[Frank_Wx]

[amugs]

If the Aleutian trough shown in the long range on the Ensembles is real, that will lock cold over the eastern U.S. beginning the week of November 6th. Since I will be in Nashville, TN between the 7th and 11th, expect the first significant snow of the season to occur then

Frank to this ENS are hinting at a BIG storm during this time frame - Archumbalt style with the transition. Time will tell.

[algae888]

winter storm potential is next weekend. as we will have a -nao/ao and +pna. and I should say very neg!

[algae888]

[rb924119]

winter storm potential is next weekend. as we will have a -nao/ao and +pna. and I should say very neg!

YOU SON OF A GUN!!! YOU BEAT ME TO IT!!! I was just looking at this, although from a different perspective. But to know somebody else came to the same conclusion with a different method gives me hope haha I'll probably do a video on it later today haha

[sroc4]

How about this look at 384 on the 6z GEFS.  Now I know this is fantasy range, but man what I wouldn't give to see this for the 5-7day.  -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO.  

[algae888]

It was great to see a little sleet this morning and very happy for our Northern Brothers to see the first snow so early in the season. I wrote in the long-range section of a potential winter storm for next weekend, while this may or may not happen it's good to be tracking early in the season and I feel as we head later into November we should see some really good chances for snow and cold. The polar vortex split allowing for Heights to build all across the Artic will initially affect Europe and Asia with cold and snow, will eventually make its way here. We just have to wait for the Bering Sea Low that forms in response to this to move South of the aleutians. Scott has a picture of the in the long-range thread. It's looking very promising for an early start to the winter season and I for one am glad. Tired of waiting till mid-January for snow and cold as we did the last several years. Here's the latest update from dr. Cohen....
ummary

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently negative and is predicted to remain negative over the next two weeks. The AO is predicted to first trend positive towards neutral and then reverse towards negative to possibly strongly negative the first half of November, with uncertainty in the AO becoming large the second week of November.
The current negative AO is reflective of positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic especially on the Eurasian side of the Arctic initially in the Barents-Kara seas and then breaking into two pieces with one piece sliding eastward into the East Siberian Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently positive because of negative height anomalies near Greenland. However the NAO is predicted to trend negative the next two weeks as the second piece of the positive geopotential height anomalies in the Barents-Kara seas retrogrades towards Greenland.
With the AO firmly negative for the next two weeks, this favors below normal temperatures across large portions of northern Eurasia especially Siberia. In contrast, because North America will be dominated by mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies, temperatures will average above normal much of next week in eastern North America. The following week with heights predicted to build once more near Greenland forcing the NAO into negative territory, lower geopotential heights and colder temperatures are predicted first for Europe and then for eastern North America for week two.
Eurasian snow cover is above normal and is continues to advance at a steady pace mostly across eastern Eurasia. However when the NAO flips negative, I expect a more rapid advance of snow cover westward towards Europe. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex (PV) in winter.
The stratospheric PV is predicted to significantly weaken into early November. All weather models now predict an unprecedented and significant early split of the stratospheric PV. I expect the circulation anomalies associated with the PV split to descend into the mid and lower troposphere later in November. When this occurs expect the cold and snow that has been mostly confined to Siberia so far, to expand into the mid-latitudes resulting in an early start to winter weather for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and possibly the eastern United States (US).

[algae888]

Here's the link it's a good read especially if you like snow and cold
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
Here is some more of the arcticle...
do believe that the large-scale atmospheric stratospheric circulation is nearly unprecedented for this time of year and a record weak PV s predicted by all the models during the first week of November. Since September, I have been focusing on the unusually weak stratospheric polar vortex so far this fall season and in my opinion the strength of the polar vortex in the coming weeks, both in the stratosphere and the troposphere, is key to this winter’s weather. With strong high pressure centered in the Barents Kara seas, the large-scale tropospheric pattern has been very favorable for poleward heat transport or vertical Wave Activity Flux (WAFz). Record strong poleward heat flux is predicted this week. This will result in a highly anomalous stratospheric PV split in the next seven to ten days. This early stratospheric PV split is possibly unprecedented in the observational record. I have so far not found a PV split so early in the season and if anyone can find one please let me know. If we were observing a record weak PV in early January, when it is more common, I would be writing about the strong potential for widespread and extended severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere. Instead I find myself expressing higher uncertainty not unlike the AO blogs early last spring trying to predict the consequences of an unprecedented late record weakening of the PV. However there is one important difference and that is the sun’s strength. Back in late March and early April, the sun was quite strong already and only getting stronger across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mitigating the dynamical cooling forced by the PV split. Now we have the exact reverse situation with solar radiation already low across the NH and it is only getting weaker. I believe that the potential exists for snow cover and cold temperatures to become unusually expansive in the month of November and the dynamically forced cooling by the PV split will be amplified by the weakening solar radiation. An established snow cover and widespread cold temperatures will become increasingly difficult to dislodge and reverse especially across Eurasia as we approach the core winter months.

[amugs]

Nice Al that PIG EYE Al Low is giong to as I showed on the page before retrograde a bit west allow the EPO to build with a PNA ridge dropping a trough in the MA region. THIS could be what we see this winter - have to temper meself.

Okay lets do a winter contest like Frank did last year:

Over under on # of snow threads - my call 32 this year - we dont end till later March.

This is nice - a tad more south but we can work on that!!

[amugs]

JMA - posted this last week too - standing firm on the trough in the east weeks 3 and 4

[algae888]

JMA - posted this last week too - standing firm on the trough in the east weeks 3 and 4

Yes mugs just saw that it looks like all guidance is coming around to what the Euro weeklies have been showing. One thing is certain the pattern has definitely changed we are much more like a nino than a nina, as it has become very wet and looks to continue to be wet for the foreseeable future. Mugs as you have stated many times on here the nino lag effect. Some mets are even throwing out nina analogues. An active pattern with a strong polar jet fun times ahead.

[Quietace]

Even here in the NE, the Whites, Greens, and the Daks are all covered in a few inches. Then Look at southern CA outside of the SLRV...

[amugs]

JMA - posted this last week too - standing firm on the trough in the east weeks 3 and 4

Yes mugs just saw that it looks like all guidance is coming around to what the Euro weeklies have been showing. One thing is certain the pattern has definitely changed we are much more like a nino than a nina, as it has become very wet and looks to continue to be wet for the foreseeable future. Mugs as you have stated many times on here the nino lag effect. Some mets are even throwing out nina analogues. An active pattern with a strong polar jet fun times ahead.

Thanks Al and a weak Nino can be bang bang with the other variables if they come together IMHO. Can we mak eup for last year?? Remember that Nature has a way of BALANCING THINGS out in the long term

[algae888]

Strange evolution of systems on models today. Have them dropping south from Eastern Canada to off the New England coast. They're probably trying to get a handle on the blocking that's coming up in the next seven plus days.

[frank 638]

I just watched nick Gregory weather forecast and he was saying a pattern change is going to happen around November 11th or 12 to a colder possible stormy pattern I wonder does that mean snow for

[sroc4]

Strange evolution of systems on models today. Have them dropping south from Eastern Canada to off the New England coast. They're probably trying to get a handle on the blocking that's coming up in the next seven plus days.

Or blocking is being over modeled. Hopefully not but possibly.

[algae888]

Mid NOV pattern flip on track: strong ECMWF weekly signal here, +PNA/-NAO and an eastern trough weeks 3/4

[sroc4]

Mid NOV pattern flip on track: strong ECMWF weekly signal here, +PNA/-NAO and an eastern trough weeks 3/4

Hey there gorgeous

[amugs]

Dan Leonard posted the Euro weeklies Al posted week 3 and here is week 4

[algae888]

I think it was a little premature on my part about getting excited about this upcoming pattern. Polar vortex split and good teleconnectors. 2 things 1 the polar vortex split ended up bringing the cold air to Asia and two it's still a little early in the season for the teleconnects to have a significant impact on our area. So temperatures look normal after the pattern flip around November 10th. Unless something is timed right I'm not looking for any winter storm before November 20th. Good news is once the polar vortex consolidates its still looks weak and primed to split again

[dkodgis]

Luminaries at Accuweather say the first two weeks of November will be warm then the last two weeks will be "significantly colder" compared to last year. Since last year was so warm, I guess that significantly colder concept is as all weather is, somewhat relative.  One blog caught my eye with the statement of significantly colder yet the temps will average out close to normal for that time period. So I guess the high temps and the low temps in the first half and second half will be quite noticeable. As a Joe Weather kind of guy, I can say in layman's terms (layperson's if I want to be inclusive) that usually around Dec 1, everyone notices the real cold has arrived. Last year, we were barbecuing on Christmas Day so it was all sixes and sevens. Here's hoping we get some consistently cold, stormy, snowy weather starting near the end of November because I want to sit in front of the woodstove with hot chocolate, with the family and the chocolate labs and hole up. What made me smile while surfing on Accuweather was I clicked by accident on the professional version of Accuweather and I saw a picture of Henry with the headlines "Boom goes the thunder".  It's an enticement; it's a hook.  I may have to subscribe based on that content.

[weatherwatchermom]

https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/polar-vortex-shifting-away-from-north-america-climate

[amugs]

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