Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[weatherwatchermom]

https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/polar-vortex-shifting-away-from-north-america-climate

[amugs]

[frank 638]

with this pattern change effecting us in mid nov does this mean a colder and dryer conditions or will see stormy conditions with nor easter this weather is very very boring

[amugs]

SOI crashing hard = big changes to come - usually 10-14 days after this will occur.
Atmospherical changes are coming by mid month with the possibility of a white coating on teh ground for turkey day but I will say this our chances increase significantly as December rolls up.

[amugs]

From a professional forecaster - liken to my posts of nino hangover


There is a tremendous amount of latent heat from the super Nino and ++PDO we had and it has to go somewhere, much of it goes by way of poleward heat flux and when this happens, a winter following traditionally sees cold air near the surface taking the path of least resistance, (moving equatorward over land masses) and some areas seeing immense cold, especially with a -AO, the question is what side of the world sees it? North America, North America and Europe at the same time or just Asia....maybe all three with an active global circulation? Remember we have a weak walker cell/Kara high setup starting to unfold already.

[amugs]

Nice look on the EURO mean here - mid month change incoming



Control showing an EC storm



CFSv2 says HELLO!!! If these maps EVER verified I would have had 100" last year!!!!

[amugs]

MJO goes BOOM from SOI dropping like a rock need to see this!

[Frank_Wx]

Re-curving typhoon in the west Pacific will revive tropical forcing later this weekend. Should lead to changes down the road for us, especially by the middle of November.





MJO is shown to get into favorable phases on both the GFS and ECM around that time frame.





It looks like the Stratospheric Wave 2 warming event will not be enough to split the PV at 10mb. We'll need another warming event (possibly arising from the tropical forcing mid-month) to do the job. Or we'll have to wait until mean zonal winds relax again.

[nutleyblizzard]

Thanks for the write up Frank. Good read, though I think you might be too low with snow totals for a couple of reasons. One is the impending pattern flip in mid to late November this year unlike the past couple of years where it took place in January. The other is the -NAO factor. Depending on how much we're in a negative phase, I can envision totals more in line with 40+ inches.

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks for the write up Frank. Good read, though I think you might be too low with snow totals for a couple of reasons. One is the impending pattern flip in mid to late November this year unlike the past couple of years where it took place in January. The other is the -NAO factor. Depending on how much we're in a negative phase, I can envision totals more in line with 40+ inches.

In the "what can go wrong" section I spoke about the NAO and how its a big wildcard (as it always is). If we get a sustained period of blocking that will increase snow totals. I think the reason why I am lower with snow totals is because I am having a hard time seeing us getting Godzilla or Roidzilla type events. I think we'll see a lot of light to moderate and thread the needles. Iv'e issues revised winter outlooks before so if I see major changes then this year won't be any different

[nutleyblizzard]

Thanks for the write up Frank. Good read, though I think you might be too low with snow totals for a couple of reasons. One is the impending pattern flip in mid to late November this year unlike the past couple of years where it took place in January. The other is the -NAO factor. Depending on how much we're in a negative phase, I can envision totals more in line with 40+ inches.

In the "what can go wrong" section I spoke about the NAO and how its a big wildcard (as it always is). If we get a sustained period of blocking that will increase snow totals. I think the reason why I am lower with snow totals is because I am having a hard time seeing us getting Godzilla or Roidzilla type events. I think we'll see a lot of light to moderate and thread the needles. Iv'e issues revised winter outlooks before so if I see major changes then this year won't be any different

Could be the snow weenie in me talking, but I can certainly see major snow potential this winter. Depending on how the anomalies align, if you have a split polar vortex over hudson bay along with bath water Atlantic SST's, all you need is a timed right shortwave to come along and then you have powder keg potential. Interesting times ahead.

[sroc4]

Re-curving typhoon in the west Pacific will revive tropical forcing later this weekend. Should lead to changes down the road for us, especially by the middle of November.





MJO is shown to get into favorable phases on both the GFS and ECM around that time frame.





It looks like the Stratospheric Wave 2 warming event will not be enough to split the PV at 10mb. We'll need another warming event (possibly arising from the tropical forcing mid-month) to do the job. Or we'll have to wait until mean zonal winds relax again.

Currently tropical forcing, even though the MJO is currently in the "circle of death, is behaving more as if we are in a phase 3/4 as seen by a clear, albeit weak, influence on the polar westerly's on Sat imagery which I showed in my write up the other day.   Image is from Oct 29th.  



But the western edge of the elongated central Pac ridge is already showing the first signs of breaking down as seen by todays Sat loops.  
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/wvblue.html

If you look at the corrected GEFS and Euro MJO forecasts they both agree it will likely come out of the COD around phase 4/5 in the next few days before propagating eastward through 6-8.  I am saving these images to follow along with how well these forecasts verify and or change over time.  I personally need to see the stream, or atmospheric river of moisture, from the Equatorial tropics/subtropics into the polar westerly's turn off in the western IO, MJO phases 3/4, before I buy into the change in the pattern.  




Recall last winter with a similar tropical forcing from these unfavorable MJO phases.  Next image is from Jan 26th 2016.  This was in large part the reason why myself and many others said that the atmosphere was not behaving like a typical strong El Nino, in large part because of these tropical forcings.  






My point here is it took almost a month before we finally got the MJO to propagate into the colder phases for the EC, which if you recall we actually saw a brief period of record cold last Feb during this time frame. So again We need that area to turn off in the E IO, and re-establish itself closer to the dateline and hopefully if it does a feedback will occur allowing it to lock in and persistently enhance the Sub Aleutian trough.

[amugs]

Thanks for the write up Frank. Good read, though I think you might be too low with snow totals for a couple of reasons. One is the impending pattern flip in mid to late November this year unlike the past couple of years where it took place in January. The other is the -NAO factor. Depending on how much we're in a negative phase, I can envision totals more in line with 40+ inches.

In the "what can go wrong" section I spoke about the NAO and how its a big wildcard (as it always is). If we get a sustained period of blocking that will increase snow totals. I think the reason why I am lower with snow totals is because I am having a hard time seeing us getting Godzilla or Roidzilla type events. I think we'll see a lot of light to moderate and thread the needles. Iv'e issues revised winter outlooks before so if I see major changes then this year won't be any different

Could be the snow weenie in me talking, but I can certainly see major snow potential this winter. Depending on how the anomalies align, if you have a split polar vortex over hudson bay along with bath water Atlantic SST's, all you need is a timed right shortwave to come along and then you have powder keg potential. Interesting times ahead.

Nutley,

There is the potential for such - Nada or weak nina have produced some Godzilla snows in the past (78,96,03 examples)not as much as Nino but there have been some - the Kara Straights/Sea may hold a key to the NAO this winter IMO. Also, if you read on here I posted a pro forecasters idea that all of the Heat from this Nno was transferred up to the arctic region tus helping the EPO and the AO. Interesting times ahead!

[Dunnzoo]

Depending on how the anomalies align, if you have a split polar vortex over hudson bay along with bath water Atlantic SST's, all you need is a timed right shortwave to come along and then you have powder keg potential. Interesting times ahead.

oy vey! Those words cause us to lose too much sleep! Give me a good clipper that I can see coming way ahead of time!

[algae888]

here we go...
ryan maue

So the 2nd half of November is going to be really cold. Upgrade to ECMWF monthly (46-day) forecasts w/improved ocean model

[algae888]

hearing new weeklies are so cold late nov thru mid dec that some cannot take them seriously. WOW!

[Isotherm]

Tropical forcing near the dateline is highly unlikely to happen this winter, which wouldn't be atypical for a cold ENSO event. Congregation of mean -OLR / negative velocity potential in MJO domain space of 4-6 is fairly common for Nina's, although some years it has been further east. The resultant streamfunction and Rossby wave trains in those typical Nina years generally destructively interferes with Aleutian / GOA low development (the inverse of the z500 pattern over the next couple weeks). It's a tendency though, but my point is that I wouldn't be surprised if the MJO is generally unconducive much of the winter (it's only one factor as well).

[Frank_Wx]

hearing new weeklies are so cold late nov thru mid dec that some cannot take them seriously. WOW!

No doubt, confidence on an early start to winter is very high for me. Between my outlook and what I'm seeing on modeling tonight, it's pretty apparent we're headed toward a cold pattern. How long it will last will be interesting to monitor.

[Frank_Wx]

Tropical forcing near the dateline is highly unlikely to happen this winter, which wouldn't be atypical for a cold ENSO event. Congregation of mean -OLR / negative velocity potential in MJO domain space of 4-6 is fairly common for Nina's, although some years it has been further east. The resultant streamfunction and Rossby wave trains in those typical Nina years generally destructively interferes with Aleutian / GOA low development (the inverse of the z500 pattern over the next couple weeks). It's a tendency though, but my point is that I wouldn't be surprised if the MJO is generally unconducive much of the winter (it's only one factor as well).

What's interesting to me is if the Nina does peak in November, then does an inactive or unfavorable MJO still apply for the ensuing winter months? ENSO-neutral conditions are possible by January.

[amugs]

Tropical forcing near the dateline is highly unlikely to happen this winter, which wouldn't be atypical for a cold ENSO event. Congregation of mean -OLR / negative velocity potential in MJO domain space of 4-6 is fairly common for Nina's, although some years it has been further east. The resultant streamfunction and Rossby wave trains in those typical Nina years generally destructively interferes with Aleutian / GOA low development (the inverse of the z500 pattern over the next couple weeks). It's a tendency though, but my point is that I wouldn't be surprised if the MJO is generally unconducive much of the winter (it's only one factor as well).

In layman's terms ...........................Tom likes this MJO journey!
Also the SOI is going to cause a big feedback to teh atmospheric evolution and we see a huge crash in teh numbers from Sept to Oct which will lead to the retrograde shifting SW of its position in teh GOA and allowing the dam to break over its top for the cross polar flow to happen. Lets all remember this is AN EVOLUTION and a step down process - slow and steady win teh race - reminds me of teh bugs bunny cartoon with teh turtle and bugs!!
Solar is low adn has been for sometime with few if any sunspots which helps going unto winter as well in teh long range. Id rather teh snow come around Turkey day or thereafter through March - lets not rush into anything here.
Listen to earthlight and doug Simone on podcast tonight very interesting - next few weeks start to determine things going into winter and things are looking good so far.

[sroc4]

I'm not so sure mugs Tom likes the MJO journey.  Maybe I am misinterpreting what he is saying, but I think he points out with the exception of what we are likely to see with second half of Nov and early Dec he feels that more often than not we may see the MJO and tropical forcings stuck in the unfavorable phases of 4-6 due to the cold ENSO status.  

Looking at the MLSP anomaly maps in the Trop Pac the daily contributions to the SOI looks like, in the short term at least, will spike a bit positive over the next 2-3days starting with today at +9.02(but should spike further than that), then go back neg again for a few days, then if the MSLP anomalies in the longer term come to fruition spike positive once again.  I would not be surprised to see the SOI for November trend back towards a positive base state as Oct came in at -4.51 for the month.   I can see how, potentially we re-establish the tropical forcing in the unfavorable phases headed into the forst 1-2weeks of December, IF the base state to the SOI over the next month remains in a positive phase relative to the base state.  However as we proceed we want to see the 3-5/5-7day bursts of strong neg SOI like we saw at the end of Oct to potentially key us into another cattle prod in the atmosphere where we then watch the forcings propagate east again and a trough winding up in the east.  2013/2014 or maybe it was 14/15, was a fascinating example of neutral ENSO conditions that had numerous strong neg drops in the SOI that led to troughs and storm potential in the east 7-10days later.  So if we cont with this neutral base state to the SOI with neg spikes will it have the same effects this season?

[Isotherm]

It's a difficult variable to predict, and as Frank noted above, much will be contingent upon the atmospheric-oceanic coupling and the progression of this ENSO event. The stronger the La Nina becomes will probably induce more concentrated forcing further west of the dateline via the reorientation of the walker cells, possibly with another additional area of uplift in the IO, if we continue to warm over that region. If we weaken the La Nina, there's likely more flexibility in terms of walker cell shifts and thus greatest -VP zones.

Again though, the forcing isn't a be all end all either. Often times other factors will suppress its influence, or sometimes constructively interfere and aid an ongoing pattern.

[amugs]

I personally see A LOT happening regurgitation in our atmosphere - we have a ridiculous crash in teh SOI (not seen since 1876) a MJO that is all of sudden becoming active, arctic cold over Eurasia from an unprecedented PV Split, record heat in the arctic region with blocking and record SAI/Growth. Things are evolving and we must be patient for them to happen. The models will change on dime as they usually do when it comes to pattern evolution. Mixed signals fro sure but also very interesting.

Warm Blob still holdin on up there in teh GOA. Need that bad boy to hold for us and someone to throw some heat packs into the water for us as well!!


We'll know in teh next weeks where we are at if we see the step down to this pattern and we start to pool the cold air into Canada. This will be important for our winters cold source - right now there is not much up there but there is still plenty of time.

Good snow pack for sure!!

[sroc4]

Good stuff Mugsy.  The one thing I would say isn't necessarily accurate is the SOI crash we are seeing.  I cant remember if I heard it on JB's video this mornings or read it on one of his blogs the last day or so but I think he mentioned something about how it is unprecedented, or that he has never seen such a rapid drop in one months time to the monthy base state of the SOI from Sept to Oct.  However I beg to differ.  We have had at least two such drops of equal or greater value and I only searched through a very limited number of years, so my guess is there are more.  



Sept Monthly contibution was 13.82.  Oct came in at -4.51; a total drop of 18.33.  



However, look at April 2011 through May 2011; It goes from about 23 to about 2 a difference of just over 20 point drop



Nov 2001 through Dec 2001 it goes from about 9 to about -10 from one month to the next a difference of approx 19 total



My point here is certainly not to be argumentative but rather informative.  When I heard JB say something like this I initially took his word, but upon further investigation it is clear that large drops from month to month in the past are not unprecedented.  Like I mentioned earlier it will be interesting to see how the month of Nov plays out as a whole relative to the 90 day Base state.  Honestly Oct is what we needed to happen regarding the SOI to keep things closer to neutral or weak La Nina territory.   We dont want a mod La Nina as the trop forcing in the unfavorable 3-6MJO phases would be more probable, and stronger influences from the Northern teleconnections would be needed to override such forcings, as Tom pointed out above.    

I have become more and more intrigued by this aspect of the global climate and its overall effects on our sensible weather as well as how it interacts with and effects the MJO throughout a winter season.  As a whole the short term severe drops over any given 3-5 day time frame aka "Cattle prod" effect which is a more transient idea which JB has described vs the long term effect on the ENSO status, and the overall effect it has on a winter, or summer season as a whole it was I find fascinating.  It will intriguing to look back upon in hindsight just how influential or non influential this part of the equation had on our upcoming winter relative to all the other aspects of the climate, IE: SAI SEI, stratasphere status, PDO etc..  Anyway that is all.

[Math23x7]

I mentioned in the November 2016 Observations and Discussions thread but the high temperatures in NYC on November 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in 1995 were 69 and 72.  Those two days this year will get pretty close to that.  But after that, the cold came in.  Looking at the Local Climatological Data Publication website which I have mentioned in another thread, seeing the stretch from November 1995 to April 1996 sure is something.  At the age of five, I was too young to really follow weather or even focus on the snow.  But here are those six months:

[frank 638]

accuweather has snow for us on xmas eve and xmas day i know there forcast always changes but it would be nice to see a white christmas

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, Northern Hemisphere polar heat flux is at record levels. The Strat PV may remain in a weak state through much of December, which means higher than normal chance of a SSWE taking place in January.



Compared it to this time last year.

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