Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[frank 638]

accuweather has snow for us on xmas eve and xmas day i know there forcast always changes but it would be nice to see a white christmas

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, Northern Hemisphere polar heat flux is at record levels. The Strat PV may remain in a weak state through much of December, which means higher than normal chance of a SSWE taking place in January.



Compared it to this time last year.

[weatherwatchermom]

Wow, Northern Hemisphere polar heat flux is at record levels. The Strat PV may remain in a weak state through much of December, which means higher than normal chance of a SSWE taking place in January.



Compared it to this time last year.

frank all this too technical for me.. is this a good thing?

[Frank_Wx]

Does my Facebook post clear it up for you?

https://m.facebook.com/njstrongweatherpage/photos/a.986616814715342.1073741828.985463921497298/1231873886856299/?type=3

[amugs]

Ventrice showing the PV knocked of its rocker into the NA - HMMMMMM

[amugs]

Also the Siberian HP will be deep and will pull that PIG EYED Aleutian LOW back or make it retrograde SW thus allowing for teh EPO to go N and the PNA to spike allowing the cross polar siberian express to open up as well. Once it can get established in teh winter teh better for it to get stuck pattern wise and last for 30 or even 45 days IF it evolves in this fashion which it is indicating. My other point here is that IF we can get the EPO to build favorably as I mentioned above then we may see and extended period of not just AO cold but EPO cold as well.

Like I stated in my other long post teh gurgitation of the 500mb level is what is interesting and we have so many factors on teh table but I feel like ENSO last year AO will be a dominant player due to teh state of teh PV. We shall see.

[weatherwatchermom]

Does my Facebook post clear it up for you?

https://m.facebook.com/njstrongweatherpage/photos/a.986616814715342.1073741828.985463921497298/1231873886856299/?type=3

actually yes..thank you..I went back and re read your outlook post and now it does...

[amugs]

1950 analog JB and other mets are harping on for us.

[amugs]

NOV and Dec indicies

[sroc4]

Latest discussion from Judah Cohen. Oh baby

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[rb924119]

Remember what I mentioned in my video about a possible feedback pattern being created in the Troposphere such that it enhances Wave 1 flux in the NAO region into the Stratosphere to possibly re-split it heading into the end of November/December? Take a look at the height anomalies in that region for the next four or five days (which are not even part of the pattern change that we are all looking for), then take a look at what the GFS tries to do with the PV around day 15 Just saying that if we can lock the pattern in that is being widely advertised now for day 14 and beyond, we might be setting up for quite a kickoff to an early winter. My only concern is that it keeps being pushed back. A few days ago, it was at about days 10-12, now it is more towards day 13-15. We shall see, but the guidance is at least looking promising.

[Isotherm]

Latest discussion from Judah Cohen. Oh baby

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Here's the most important sentence of the analysis:

"If this period transitions to a tropospheric pattern that forces yet another significant weakening of the PV, this should strongly favor a relatively cold winter for the Northern Hemisphere (NH).  However if instead the PV appreciably strengthens simultaneously both in the troposphere and the stratosphere for an extended period (longer than one or two weeks), then I believe this favors a relatively warm winter for the NH.  For now based on the three predictors that I discussed above I favor the first scenario."


Yes, I have been rather negative and skeptical so far this autumn season. I just think it's important to note the weak vortex isn't necessarily a guarantee of a weak winter vortex.

[dkodgis]

Help out a Joe Weather kinda guy. A weak vortex might mean "weak" as in weak or also as in "split"?

[Frank_Wx]

Remember what I mentioned in my video about a possible feedback pattern being created in the Troposphere such that it enhances Wave 1 flux in the NAO region into the Stratosphere to possibly re-split it heading into the end of November/December? Take a look at the height anomalies in that region for the next four or five days (which are not even part of the pattern change that we are all looking for), then take a look at what the GFS tries to do with the PV around day 15 Just saying that if we can lock the pattern in that is being widely advertised now for day 14 and beyond, we might be setting up for quite a kickoff to an early winter. My only concern is that it keeps being pushed back. A few days ago, it was at about days 10-12, now it is more towards day 13-15. We shall see, but the guidance is at least looking promising.

GFS is showing reversal of 10hPa mean zonal winds.



Look where it places the Strat PV



We're well on our way. Let's hope it's not fantasy land wishcasting, but given the progress of the SAI this month and where the MJO is headed, I would say it's not. Strat PV will be squeezed like a tub of toothpaste.

Latest discussion from Judah Cohen. Oh baby

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Here's the most important sentence of the analysis:

"If this period transitions to a tropospheric pattern that forces yet another significant weakening of the PV, this should strongly favor a relatively cold winter for the Northern Hemisphere (NH).  However if instead the PV appreciably strengthens simultaneously both in the troposphere and the stratosphere for an extended period (longer than one or two weeks), then I believe this favors a relatively warm winter for the NH.  For now based on the three predictors that I discussed above I favor the first scenario."


Yes, I have been rather negative and skeptical so far this autumn season. I just think it's important to note the weak vortex isn't necessarily a guarantee of a weak winter vortex.

Tom, you have to be excited but what is happening in the Stratosphere. I know it's long range GFS, but the observed data looks promising.

[amugs]

CFSv2 latest run for DEC - keeps correcting stronger



I hear Isotherm sentiment in Cohens forecast BUT the weenie in me says go with the cold of course.

@Ray - let it be pushed back - rather that later come Turkey Day period through late Dec then mid Nov to Mid Dec - to me the later in Nov the better it will then set up a nice winter kickoff. Something we have ALL been missing for years around here!

Again the evolution is happening just give it time patience is a virtue and we will all reap the benefits.

[Isotherm]

No doubt, Frank. I would much rather that we enter winter w/ a weaker than normal stratospheric vortex.

And I agree with what was discussed above, namely, that the progged short-medium term tropospheric pattern will constructively interfere with the climatological wave-1 and consequently induce vertically propagating wave-1 to converge at the stratospheric vortex w/ maximum response in circa 15-20 days.

Therefore, given the expect tropospheric regime, model guidance suggestive of another severe PV attack in mid November is likely to be correct. The later we get into November w/ a weak vortex, the time during which - climatologically - the stratospheric vortex rapidly intensifies, the higher the probability that the vortex will have a difficult time recovering in winter. We will have to see how we progress as there is research that suggests a weakened autumn vortex is inversely correlated with the winter vortex state.

Very interesting nonetheless.

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks Al, posting that pic on my twitter page. B-e-a utiful

[amugs]

Thanks Al, posting that pic on my twitter page. B-e-a utiful

Me Al AKA Mugs or Al meaning Algae?? No problem El Capitan

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks Al, posting that pic on my twitter page. B-e-a utiful

Me Al AKA Mugs or Al meaning Algae?? No problem El Capitan

YOU

[Frank_Wx]

The western and central U.S. are going to see record breaking temps this weekend into all of next week. Meanwhile, we'll remain around average to slightly below. There will be a day or 2 of above normal mixed in. Then later in the month we'll begin seeing the pattern change to colder than normal weather with a threat of snow

[Frank_Wx]

The cooling trend with the PDO or temps in the North Pac. may have been temporary due to upwelling from intense re-curving typhoons / strong low pressure systems. Models show it rising steadily through the winter.

[amugs]

Holy SNIKES EPO frickin is off teh charts with a tank - imagine this in Jan or Feb ????

[amugs]

GEFS - lets hope so

[amugs]

Euro says no to the EPO

[sroc4]

Euro says no to the EPO

Good news is that image of the EPS EPO ends around the 12th but it looks like it is trending towards neutral and likely neg after that.  If you look at the GEFS12z its similar around the 12th (approx neutral) before tanking negative.  If you look at the Same time frame on the EPS anomaly Maps EPO looks negative and very similar to the GEF image you posted above.  

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS Parallel 500mb map in the long range is drool worthy. Matches GEFS nicely.

Day 11-18



Day 14-21

[amugs]

Scott great point 
Now how about the MJO 

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