Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS Parallel 500mb map in the long range is drool worthy. Matches GEFS nicely.

Day 11-18



Day 14-21

[amugs]

Scott great point 
Now how about the MJO 

[amugs]

Snow growth advancement WOW!!

[Frank_Wx]

Snow growth advancement WOW!!

Gorgeous. Just GAWJUS

[sroc4]

Scott great point 
Now how about the MJO 

You beat me to this. I was looking at sat images today and love what it looks like. Wheels are in motion. I will try to post images in the morning.

[amugs]

Composite  of the epo, good news here as Sroc pointed out .

[amugs]

Wow GEFS mean woop woop

[rb924119]

Really don't like that we are losing the negative states of the indices in the longer range; the NAO, AO and EPO are now looking to either remain or become unfavorable at the time of the suggested pattern change. Red flag??

[algae888]

Really don't like that we are losing the negative states of the indices in the longer range; the NAO, AO and EPO are now looking to either remain or become unfavorable at the time of the suggested pattern change. Red flag??

yes seeing same thing. lost cold this weekend too. Fridays high is now 62* was 53* a few days ago. lets see what weeklies show today but a push back of pattern change looks probable att.

[Frank_Wx]

Really don't like that we are losing the negative states of the indices in the longer range; the NAO, AO and EPO are now looking to either remain or become unfavorable at the time of the suggested pattern change. Red flag??

Pattern change will be between the 21st and 28th. One of those weeks. I really like Thanksgiving as the official transition day.

The huge ridge we'll see in the middle of the country is expected to retrograde west and lock a trough over the east. I do not expect the NAO go go negative. AO may not either. But EPO/PNA should be favorable. We'll see!

[algae888]

we also have to remember that mjo 781 for OND is not cold and stormy in the east as DJF. pv split -ao +pna mjo favorable all these may have happened to early for significant changes with regards to sensible weather (cold and snow) in our area.

[Frank_Wx]

Admittedly, I am not sure I feel comfortable calling it a pattern change. It could be a transient period of below normal weather. 10hPa wind reversal in the Stratosphere still looks good for mid-November, so odds of a SSWE occurring late December / early January still appear higher than normal. The true "pattern change" may wait until January.

[amugs]

EURO ENS here look good



Also, if yuo get this PAC Typhoon to phase you'll jolt the PAC JET and change our WX pattern

[amugs]

GEFS show the eroding of the GOA LP and it starts to migrate WSW - sign of winter pattern.

[amugs]

WOW look at this snow advancement in teh last week - today is the official end to the Snow growth/advancement for teh winter and it is YUUGGE!

[algae888]

Euro show some pretty cold air next weekend on it's last several runs. Gfs looks like it's trending that way too. Ensembles also look cold for next weekend. Models and ensembles keep flip-flopping. Let's see if this holds.

[weatherwatchermom]

Euro show some pretty cold air next weekend on it's last several runs. Gfs looks like it's trending that way too. Ensembles also  look cold for next weekend. Models and ensembles keep flip-flopping. Let's see if this holds.

of course it will..lol..it is our last weekend trip on the boat...always cold that last trip..except for last year when we could have been boating in Dec.(but boat is heated so ok..lol)

[amugs]

Euro show some pretty cold air next weekend on it's last several runs. Gfs looks like it's trending that way too. Ensembles also  look cold for next weekend. Models and ensembles keep flip-flopping. Let's see if this holds.

Al here u go on the GEFS the evolution is happening 

[frank 638]

Now we are getting the cold temperatures any storms with the change

[algae888]

Well today's operational GFS is a complete 180 from yesterday's runs and very cold. Northern stream is dominant and has many coastal's. CMC is also cold. Not sure if I'm buying this at the moment considering all the cold air is in Europe and Asia and blocking doesn't look too great but as you know things can change on a dime in the weather

[algae888]

What's very interesting on today's GFS is that every shortwave that hits the Atlantic weather North of us or south of us deepens once offshore. With the Atlantic being very warm any cold shots coming through has the potential to produce a coastal ( miller b). I know doc Can't wait for this.

[algae888]

Euro continues with the cold for next weekend looks like a piece of the polar vortex will drop into Southeast Canada

[algae888]

Looks like we can be looking at negative 10 temperature departures for next weekend maybe colder if models are correct that could bring the first freeze in to New York City.

[algae888]

If the models are correct this November is starting to look a lot like November 95. Check mikes chart. Plus with the higher Heights in the Arctic once the cold gets here it could stay for awhile as the pattern keeps reloading. any thoughts

[amugs]

Al we have a few things happen g here as usual: 
A recurving Pac Typhoon, big heights that wil build over the top and make a complete  horseshoe from the EPO to Greenland that wil trap tell cold air underneath it and allow it build down. The jetstreak from the PAC is orogged to die down as well with the transition of the season. we also have the pv disruption.

[amugs]

He
re is the PAC JET BREAKING DOWN partially due to typhoon Media

[StatenWx]

Those maps look really good in terms of the retrogression/dissipation of the GoA low. That's what we want to see at this point.

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