Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[amugs]

He
re is the PAC JET BREAKING DOWN partially due to typhoon Media

[StatenWx]

Those maps look really good in terms of the retrogression/dissipation of the GoA low. That's what we want to see at this point.

[dkodgis]

Folks who sell propane have a website:

http://www.propanebuzz.com/models-predicting-winter-pattern-shift-in-november/

Who knew that folks who sell propane are also avid weather enthusiasts Looks exactly what we are talking about here. There is an interesting reference to Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory and in the first paragraph of the webpage, it says that model runs often contradict the one before or after. It is a crap shoot until the date moves closer to something happening. Also same thing about analogs and winter of 95-96 and winters of 2013-15. It is cross-referencing our points or maybe we are cross-referencing theirs.

[Snow88]

Models are starting to look for Mid November forward

[Frank_Wx]

Good morning everyone

Here is the powerpoint I presented at the get together yesterday.

In summary, SAI (snow advanced index) is continuing to increase over Siberia and this bolds well for getting a -AO over the winter months. Additionally, the Strat PV will remain very weak through November and December which means the probability of a SSWE (sudden stratospheric warming event) increase. If one were to occur, it would be sometime between Christmas and the first 10 days of January.

We will see two shots of below normal weather over the next week to 10 days. The one next weekend may bring our first 40's of the season. Then there is a period the week before Thanksgiving that could bring us 3 to 5 days of below normal weather. I do not consider this a "pattern change" but a mere transient period of colder than normal weather.

I think the pattern change will be reserved for sometime in December. Hopefully early on.

Winter 2016-2017 Update

More presentations from Francesco Paparatto

[algae888]

gorgeous...

[amugs]

Some maps to ponder and say White Turkey day and  cold beyond by the euro and a PV displacement and reversal of zonal winds at 10hPa.

[amugs]

Hello Drool worthy

[amugs]

From JB site he tweeted this Models coming around  to what we have been discussing here 

[HectorO]

Good morning everyone

Here is the powerpoint I presented at the get together yesterday.

In summary, SAI (snow advanced index) is continuing to increase over Siberia and this bolds well for getting a -AO over the winter months. Additionally, the Strat PV will remain very weak through November and December which means the probability of a SSWE (sudden stratospheric warming event) increase. If one were to occur, it would be sometime between Christmas and the first 10 days of January.

We will see two shots of below normal weather over the next week to 10 days. The one next weekend may bring our first 40's of the season. Then there is a period the week before Thanksgiving that could bring us 3 to 5 days of below normal weather. I do not consider this a "pattern change" but a mere transient period of colder than normal weather.

I think the pattern change will be reserved for sometime in December. Hopefully early on.

<div><h3 style="padding: 0px; margin: 3px;"><a href="http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/francesco481298-2958187-winter-2016-2017-update/" target="_blank" style="font:normal 18px,arial;">Winter 2016-2017 Update</a></h3><object width="425" height="354" id="player"><param name="movie" value="http://www.authorstream.com/player.swf?fb=0&nb=1&ct=5&ap=0&c=dfdfdf&pl=as&p=2958187_636140197879975876&fi=1" /><param name="allowFullScreenInteractive" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"/><embed src="http://www.authorstream.com/player.swf?fb=0&nb=1&ct=5&ap=0&c=dfdfdf&pl=as&p=2958187_636140197879975876&fi=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowFullScreenInteractive="true" width="425" height="354"></embed></object><div  style="font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal;font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;">More presentations from <a href="http://www.authorstream.com/francesco481298/" target="_blank">Francesco Paparatto</a></div></div>

With so many locations for all of us, isn't it hard to say "we" might see a certain temp for the first time. I can definitely say for some people in Bergen County, have already seen highs in the high 40's for this season. Especially in Ramsey, even in Mahwah which has a sharp cut-off between humid subtropical and another climate zone.

[amugs]

Good sign to see the AAM dying off which will help kill.of the PAC JET which has been dominating g our pattern since Sept of 2015!!

[amugs]

Not so good news is Oct QBO rose to plus 12 for love of Pete why??  Mixed signals.

[frank 638]

looks like next week might be stormy esp wed into thur with a possple nor easter any thoughts on this

[amugs]

looks like next week might be stormy esp wed into thur with a possple nor easter  any thoughts on this

Long time to go but they had such earlier like Sat/Sun in LR and coming back to this idea. WE will monitor and we'll need something like this.

[algae888]

our problem right now is that the cold air is over asia/europe and doesn't look like it will get here anytime soon.

if i'm not mistaken 2011-12 also had cold over asia. terrible winter here that year.  however we do not need below normal temps to have a good winter. normal temps from mid december on could work.

[algae888]

hopefully this system can jump start a pattern change...

[rb924119]

Notice the Stratospheric PV, although it splits in the next five days, it tends to reorient over the eastern Atlantic/western Europe. That's a strong feature of westerly (+) QBO/low solar pairings, and as I said in my video last week, one that has me leery of this winter. There's also a strong correlation between warm Novembers leading to warm Decembers, but we'll if we can break that mold. I'm hesitant, at best right now with regards to a sustained period of significantly below average temperatures for at least the next 1-2 months (e.g. 5 days or longer) based on the Stratosphere, without that favorable, the Tropospheric blocks (if any) will be transient in my honest opinion :/

[amugs]

NOAA just annonces La Nina

[sroc4]

Scott on the Pac Jet extension at 250 if you look runs from wpac right through into the NA cont in BC region. We have a nino hangover and it is waning after a super nino. I showed this in posts and a research link in Sept. I have to dig this up if need be. MJO progged to go into 7-8-1 yes and we have  a pattern change evolving  I have written about this as well  My point being g that we need this Pac Jet firehouse extension to slow down so we can get cold to rebuild in CAN and snow pack up there a well for  an extension of a cold air pool besides Siberia imo. Mechanism not in place presently to slow this down , does MJO help, I believe so but need heights to rise by the GOA LP to retrograde or dissolve. From what I have read as well the AAM is still in a mod positive state which aids to the PAC jet extension and is orogged to go nutral/negative in about a 10 days. Also mountain torque from Asia is ina pos state aiding to this full extension.from what I have read. Could I be wrong surely, ain't being a nah nah hee just stating some weather info.

Maybe in Sept Mugsy there was a Nino hangover, but forcing are not el nino.  I was going to do a nice write up, but intead CPC and NOAA did it for me.  You posted the images in the LR thread but here is the latest ENSO status update valid today

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

"Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia
(Fig. 5). The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date
Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line.
Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

This quote from the other board you posted:

"How do the models handle this residual Nino forcing which is still evident as this La Nina is beginning to take shape?

The Pacific pattern this October with the Nino-like record Alaskan ridge getting undercut by the Nina Pacific Jet and displaced Aleutian Low to the PAC NW

producing the wettest month on record for Spokane, WA."

Again very Nina like with trop forcing/ dominant walker cell formation coming out of the E IO/Indonesia regions enhances the polar westerlies(aka 250 and 500mb N Pac jet).  Yes This floods the country with Pac air.  True Nino conditions, and correct me if Im wrong" tend to favor a dominat STJ which has been all but shut off, which pumps the SE ridging and persistent trough in the west bringing the rains associated with Nino conditions into the southern tier of the CONUS and NOT the Spokane, WA area.  Remember last years super NINO DID NOT behave like the typical NIno years as seen by the very same weird tropical forcings being dominated by MJO phases 4-6 for long periods in lieu of the boiling IO.  I mean I guess the point is mute as there is still above normal conditions no matter how you slice it.  The warm PDO and the warm Atlantic likely means that the hangover is simply associated with these warm region such that when the upper level and low level winds switch back out the SW and W the above normal SST bring above normal air masses.  Our current Canadian air masses are not cold enough and dominant enough, hopefully yet, to knock back the warmth for good.  Hopefully its a mere time of year issue and as we get deeper into the winter the cold air intusions have more staying power.  The SSWE def did not favor NA to recieve the core of the cold.  Until the vortex switches positions the cold will likely stay locked on the wrong side of the N Hemisphere.  Good news is as per guys like J Cohen the strat vortex should remain weak despite it coming back together as one entity instead of the split that it has undergone over the past 2 weeks, and the probability of addition wave 1 or 2 fluxes are high for late dec and early Jan to hopefully trigger another SSWE.  But again where the vortex centers plays a big role in how the trop vortex behaves.  We shall see.

[amugs]

I'm dreaming of a white Thanks giving just like the one I knew....???? 1989

[amugs]

This shplould help quell the warm over Canada and th3 North Plains

[amugs]

This is absolutely UGLY!!!!

[amugs]

Lets get this going please

[amugs]

And could we see the beginning of some change with tjis storm next week? Frank 638 asked about this earlier this week and the models are bringing it back

[weatherwatchermom]

are we really looking at possibility of snow over thanksgiving?

[frank 638]

We really do need this pattern change because our drought is getting worse and worse we might have a mini nor easter on wed

[Dunnzoo]

are we really looking at possibility of snow over thanksgiving?

It looks like some precip a few days before Turkey Day, but it does look like it will be cold...

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