Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[rb924119]

Was going to do a video about the 4-7th time frame and why it interested me, but it seems models are trending differently than I expected. I'm still watching it, but right now it looks like the energy that I thought was going to have a chance to sneak beneath the central Canadian ridge gets caught up in the deepening western trough. It still doesn't look quite right to me, which is why I'm apprehensive about writing it off and will continue watching, but I don't think it bears enough concern to waste your time with a video.

That said, come mid-December, if this north-central Pacific ridging develops as it's progged to, that's going to skyrocket wave-1 flux into the Stratosphere. Combine the lull that we have seen with the ridging in this area for the last week or two in this area with the continued wave-1 fluxes making their way up from the NAO region, this could allow the PV to pivot cyclonically around the pole, as the NAO fluxes also begin to pivot, enough to get on our side then become displaced southward toward Hudson Bay once the fluxes from the north-central Pacific start having their impacts. It may be brief, since we lose the Atlantic fluxes just as those from the Pacific start kicking in, but there should be a little overlap that bodes well for at least a short period of significant cold. Then it looks like the Atlantic tries to start again with the fluxes, although this time around the opposite side still looks to be relatively favorable, which could lead to a longer duration displacement of the PV, possibly on our side of the globe, heading into the start of the new year. This is all eye candy at this point, though, since as Scott said, we have to see if the Pacific side of things actually plays out like it's progged to. Based on what we saw with the last event, however, I feel that the Pacific is not the side to worry about, since that has already proven to be "easily" perturbed by severe ridging; it's the Atlantic, which has already failed us this season, by not being as blocky as modeled in the longer range.

[Frank_Wx]

There is no doubt there are positive signs on the horizon, but IMHO it would be unwise to buy into the hype depicted in modeling lock stop and barrel.  Looks good from far, but up close, far from good could be at play.  Alot is riding on the -WPO ridging that has yet to establish itself, and the NAO region will be an important key as well, so until we see how this sets up the future of snow and cold chances are still uncertain.  Cold is the first ingredient needed if we want snow, and at the very least that looks to be coming to some degree in the east, but the timing of the cold and where the energy comes together will play a huge role in the outcome of many of the precipitation events liquid vs frozen.  Again some very encouraging signs on the horizon, the results of which could end up being fantastic, but I would not go all in just yet because there are other large scale features that could temper the outcome of a strong pole ward block like a -WPO or -EPO esp because we are still early in the season.  That is all.      

Agree, we're already seeing models back off on the intensity of the -WPO ridge. Heights are less potent in the Arctic region this morning, allowing the SE ridge to overpower the northern jet. The only way the 2nd week of December works out is if the -WPO reaches record levels. Bad trend overnight, IMO.

[Frank_Wx]

Also key is the blocking. Notice how the EPS (right) have N ATL blocking to help suppress the SE ridge, while the GEFS have no blocking and a building SE ridge.

[sroc4]

There is no doubt there are positive signs on the horizon, but IMHO it would be unwise to buy into the hype depicted in modeling lock stop and barrel.  Looks good from far, but up close, far from good could be at play.  Alot is riding on the -WPO ridging that has yet to establish itself, and the NAO region will be an important key as well, so until we see how this sets up the future of snow and cold chances are still uncertain.  Cold is the first ingredient needed if we want snow, and at the very least that looks to be coming to some degree in the east, but the timing of the cold and where the energy comes together will play a huge role in the outcome of many of the precipitation events liquid vs frozen.  Again some very encouraging signs on the horizon, the results of which could end up being fantastic, but I would not go all in just yet because there are other large scale features that could temper the outcome of a strong pole ward block like a -WPO or -EPO esp because we are still early in the season.  That is all.      

Agree, we're already seeing models back off on the intensity of the -WPO ridge. Heights are less potent in the Arctic region this morning, allowing the SE ridge to overpower the northern jet. The only way the 2nd week of December works out is if the -WPO reaches record levels. Bad trend overnight, IMO.

Experience tells me that any time we are expecting a pattern change when the LR looks one way, esp if its an extreme looking change, reality is almost never as extreme as it looks from far and sometimes it ends up not even close, mid to late Nov is the perfect example of this. . This is what worries me. Plus there are some hints in both the observations and the forecasts that the MJO may become more influential in the overall pattern with the possibilities of it being not for the better. Again it, along with Nina forcings in the trop Pac, will be going up against this -WPO forecast so we will have to see how it plays out. Like you said the NAO region will def play a role for the better if trends stronger and west, but if it trends weaker/neutral ish its influence will be less influential and that goes against us.

[Snow88]

Models keep on flip flopping. This could be because of the pattern actually changing. Time will tell.

These are not good at all if you want to see winter weather. Hopefully they are wrong.

PNA trending downward
NAO going positive
AO going positive
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[algae888]

Models def backed off some last night. A little concerned about the South East Ridge but makes sense with such a Negative PNA. We're just going to have to wait and see how it all evolves. I still like the pattern going forward we may just have to deal with a few more cutters. I wouldn't trust any of the indices right now more than a few days out. Anyhow still have to watch Monday system CMC is now south of us and the UKie has a 987 MB low centered over Central New Jersey...
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

[Snow88]

GEFS look great moving forward

[Snow88]

CMC ensembles don't look bad at all for December 5th even for the coast

[HectorO]

There is no doubt there are positive signs on the horizon, but IMHO it would be unwise to buy into the hype depicted in modeling lock stop and barrel.  Looks good from far, but up close, far from good could be at play.  Alot is riding on the -WPO ridging that has yet to establish itself, and the NAO region will be an important key as well, so until we see how this sets up the future of snow and cold chances are still uncertain.  Cold is the first ingredient needed if we want snow, and at the very least that looks to be coming to some degree in the east, but the timing of the cold and where the energy comes together will play a huge role in the outcome of many of the precipitation events liquid vs frozen.  Again some very encouraging signs on the horizon, the results of which could end up being fantastic, but I would not go all in just yet because there are other large scale features that could temper the outcome of a strong pole ward block like a -WPO or -EPO esp because we are still early in the season.  That is all.      

Agree, we're already seeing models back off on the intensity of the -WPO ridge. Heights are less potent in the Arctic region this morning, allowing the SE ridge to overpower the northern jet. The only way the 2nd week of December works out is if the -WPO reaches record levels. Bad trend overnight, IMO.

Experience tells me that any time we are expecting a pattern change when the LR looks one way, esp if its an extreme looking change, reality is almost never as extreme as it looks from far and sometimes it ends up not even close, mid to late Nov is the perfect example of this.  .  This is what worries me.  Plus there are some hints  in both the observations and the forecasts that the MJO may become more influential in the overall pattern with the possibilities of it being not for the better.  Again it, along with Nina forcings in the trop Pac, will be going up against this -WPO forecast so we will have to see how it plays out.  Like you said the NAO region will def play a role for the better if trends stronger and west, but if it trends weaker/neutral ish its influence will be less influential and that goes against us.    

So are we dumping out December already? lol

[algae888]

eps says to watch Monday...

[sroc4]

There is no doubt there are positive signs on the horizon, but IMHO it would be unwise to buy into the hype depicted in modeling lock stop and barrel.  Looks good from far, but up close, far from good could be at play.  Alot is riding on the -WPO ridging that has yet to establish itself, and the NAO region will be an important key as well, so until we see how this sets up the future of snow and cold chances are still uncertain.  Cold is the first ingredient needed if we want snow, and at the very least that looks to be coming to some degree in the east, but the timing of the cold and where the energy comes together will play a huge role in the outcome of many of the precipitation events liquid vs frozen.  Again some very encouraging signs on the horizon, the results of which could end up being fantastic, but I would not go all in just yet because there are other large scale features that could temper the outcome of a strong pole ward block like a -WPO or -EPO esp because we are still early in the season.  That is all.      

Agree, we're already seeing models back off on the intensity of the -WPO ridge. Heights are less potent in the Arctic region this morning, allowing the SE ridge to overpower the northern jet. The only way the 2nd week of December works out is if the -WPO reaches record levels. Bad trend overnight, IMO.

Experience tells me that any time we are expecting a pattern change when the LR looks one way, esp if its an extreme looking change, reality is almost never as extreme as it looks from far and sometimes it ends up not even close, mid to late Nov is the perfect example of this.  .  This is what worries me.  Plus there are some hints  in both the observations and the forecasts that the MJO may become more influential in the overall pattern with the possibilities of it being not for the better.  Again it, along with Nina forcings in the trop Pac, will be going up against this -WPO forecast so we will have to see how it plays out.  Like you said the NAO region will def play a role for the better if trends stronger and west, but if it trends weaker/neutral ish its influence will be less influential and that goes against us.    

So are we dumping out December already? lol

How did you come to that conclusion based on what's written here??

[algae888]

the Monday system is intriguing to me even if some have lost interest. I see three scenarios unfolding. 1) a piece of the energy in mexico and s/w U.S. ejects out and the system gets sheared and we are left with nada. 2) the energy is a little stronger and rides over the top of the ridge and we get an overrunning event which would favor inland areas. three the stronger energy riding over the top phases with the n/s and intensifies somewhere over the n/e or mid Atlantic. here is a case where the s/e ridge can help as I feel the system would not slide off the s/e coast as the cmc had been showing or get as amped as the euro had (hp will shear it some). what I like is the n atlantic set up. there is a nice block with a 50/50 low and hp in a good spot so cold air can feed in. the 850 and mslp show this nicely. I don't think this system is amped up and cuts.



my projections 40% nada 40% overrunning and 20% phases/redevelop with n/s near east coast. just my two cents.

[algae888]

WOW! this is eps.

[algae888]

18z gfs


still gets sheared out but compare to 12z. lets see what the trend will be in upcoming runs.

[algae888]

this from a met from another board...
"The EPS was even better in the day 11-15 than last night. The Aleutian Ridge wavebreaking event sends a cutoff ridge north of Alaska and into the Arctic. If that happens with some east-based NAO ridging...watch out. "

[Frank_Wx]

There is no doubt there are positive signs on the horizon, but IMHO it would be unwise to buy into the hype depicted in modeling lock stop and barrel.  Looks good from far, but up close, far from good could be at play.  Alot is riding on the -WPO ridging that has yet to establish itself, and the NAO region will be an important key as well, so until we see how this sets up the future of snow and cold chances are still uncertain.  Cold is the first ingredient needed if we want snow, and at the very least that looks to be coming to some degree in the east, but the timing of the cold and where the energy comes together will play a huge role in the outcome of many of the precipitation events liquid vs frozen.  Again some very encouraging signs on the horizon, the results of which could end up being fantastic, but I would not go all in just yet because there are other large scale features that could temper the outcome of a strong pole ward block like a -WPO or -EPO esp because we are still early in the season.  That is all.      

Agree, we're already seeing models back off on the intensity of the -WPO ridge. Heights are less potent in the Arctic region this morning, allowing the SE ridge to overpower the northern jet. The only way the 2nd week of December works out is if the -WPO reaches record levels. Bad trend overnight, IMO.

Experience tells me that any time we are expecting a pattern change when the LR looks one way, esp if its an extreme looking change, reality is almost never as extreme as it looks from far and sometimes it ends up not even close, mid to late Nov is the perfect example of this.  .  This is what worries me.  Plus there are some hints  in both the observations and the forecasts that the MJO may become more influential in the overall pattern with the possibilities of it being not for the better.  Again it, along with Nina forcings in the trop Pac, will be going up against this -WPO forecast so we will have to see how it plays out.  Like you said the NAO region will def play a role for the better if trends stronger and west, but if it trends weaker/neutral ish its influence will be less influential and that goes against us.    

That was never a modeled pattern change, verbatim. It would have been (could still be) a transient week to 10 days of colder than normal weather. You need help from the Strat or an anomalous force from the Pacific to get a pattern change that is sustainable. I expect the end of December to not look so great. But mid month still looks interesting.

[Frank_Wx]

I can confirm the 12z ECM Ensembles looked nice in the long range. If they come to fruition, after the storm system on December 9th we'll enter a colder than normal pattern that could last through the 17th or so. IF the modeled blocking is correct, a storm signal should appear on the models between the 11th and 19th time period.

[amugs]

Cross polar flow - storm chances will pop in this 93-94 type here.
Poleward ridging goes north of Alaska into the EPO/AO regions.
They are kissing on this WOW!

[amugs]

Chripes dropping the hammer on us !!

[amugs]

GFS has a low bias but I like the direction this is going in - gets the PAC JET to calm down and allows WPO and EPO to do some dirty work


From Ventrice extrapolated and built from teh above chart

[sroc4]

There is no doubt there are positive signs on the horizon, but IMHO it would be unwise to buy into the hype depicted in modeling lock stop and barrel.  Looks good from far, but up close, far from good could be at play.  Alot is riding on the -WPO ridging that has yet to establish itself, and the NAO region will be an important key as well, so until we see how this sets up the future of snow and cold chances are still uncertain.  Cold is the first ingredient needed if we want snow, and at the very least that looks to be coming to some degree in the east, but the timing of the cold and where the energy comes together will play a huge role in the outcome of many of the precipitation events liquid vs frozen.  Again some very encouraging signs on the horizon, the results of which could end up being fantastic, but I would not go all in just yet because there are other large scale features that could temper the outcome of a strong pole ward block like a -WPO or -EPO esp because we are still early in the season.  That is all.      

Agree, we're already seeing models back off on the intensity of the -WPO ridge. Heights are less potent in the Arctic region this morning, allowing the SE ridge to overpower the northern jet. The only way the 2nd week of December works out is if the -WPO reaches record levels. Bad trend overnight, IMO.

Experience tells me that any time we are expecting a pattern change when the LR looks one way, esp if its an extreme looking change, reality is almost never as extreme as it looks from far and sometimes it ends up not even close, mid to late Nov is the perfect example of this.  .  This is what worries me.  Plus there are some hints  in both the observations and the forecasts that the MJO may become more influential in the overall pattern with the possibilities of it being not for the better.  Again it, along with Nina forcings in the trop Pac, will be going up against this -WPO forecast so we will have to see how it plays out.  Like you said the NAO region will def play a role for the better if trends stronger and west, but if it trends weaker/neutral ish its influence will be less influential and that goes against us.    

That was never a modeled pattern change, verbatim. It would have been (could still be) a transient week to 10 days of colder than normal weather. You need help from the Strat or an anomalous force from the Pacific to get a pattern change that is sustainable. I expect the end of December to not look so great. But mid month still looks interesting.

It's def a pattern change Frank. We have yet to see a pattern with a true cross polar flow, which if correct what is being discussed would produce. A change that's locked in longer term or more transient was not the point I was trying to make. We go from a predominantly pacific source region to now northern Canada and the arctic with the poleward ridging through the aleutians. I do understand what your saying though involving a larger scale change needed for a true change that locks In for 4-6wks or more.

[rb924119]

Video to be up and coming a little later this morning for Monday.....I'm pulling the trigger on what I think, regardless of modeling. Where's Algae?! I had my ticket in hand, but now I'M BOARDING THE TRAIN BABY!!

[amugs]

Video to be up and coming a little later this morning for Monday.....I'm pulling the trigger on what I think, regardless of modeling. Where's Algae?! I had my ticket in hand, but now I'M BOARDING THE TRAIN BABY!!

HOLY POOPS PEEPS this sounds exciting!!

[algae888]

Video to be up and coming a little later this morning for Monday.....I'm pulling the trigger on what I think, regardless of modeling. Where's Algae?! I had my ticket in hand, but now I'M BOARDING THE TRAIN BABY!!

rb I'm here very tired last night. anyway models will not have a good handle on this for another few days as they tend to not handle digging troughs into mexico well. nws disco echo's my thoughts...
Thereafter...significant divergence in models handling of the late
weekend/early next week eastward evolution of a deep Western US
trough. The main difference is whether the base of the trough
closing off into Northern Mexico this weekend...travels with the
parent northern stream shortwave or gets left behind. The
implication being...a phased eastward moving trough would bring
potential for a southern low and significant precip tracking up the
east coast for Sun Night into early next week. Meanwhile...the
latter detached scenario would just bring another weak trough
through the region with perhaps some light precip. Either scenario
is in play...with SBU ensemble sensitivity pointing at interplay of
western Pacific and northern Pacific shortwave energy over the next
48-60 hrs playing a key role in downstream evolution of this trough
for the late week/weekend. Based on the complex interaction...may
continue to see flip-flop of operation models and considerable
spread in ensembles for this time frame for the next few days.

[algae888]

yesterday and the previous days before had unfavorable teles going forward. I for one was not buying it looking at the ensemble 500mb maps. using cpc data we now see a return to favorable teles esp the ao and nao. use caution always but I do not think the ao and nao go pos. anytime soon...

[algae888]

with regards to what frank and scott have been discussing I do not think we see a sustained pattern (cold or warm) for dec. the polar/arctic jet will show up at times but also the s/e ridge. what I like is a very active pattern (nino hangover) and that could produce for us this month. get the precip here and we should do just fine. again best dec pattern in many years.

[algae888]

going forward for the rest of winter we have to consider that this nina (if it even reached nina is still in question) is dying. it looks like it peaked in October and now sub surfave warm pool is showing up in region 3.4.

05OCT2016 -0.9
12OCT2016 -0.6
19OCT2016 -0.6
26OCT2016 -0.8
02NOV2016 -0.8
09NOV2016 -0.7
16NOV2016 -0.4
23NOV2016 -0.4

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