Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[skinsfan1177]

Their seems to a lot of uncertainty with a colder snowy pattern

[algae888]

My call for December is -1 to -2 for New York City with near average snowfall. We will be near to below normal on December 15th with our first snowfall by then. Interior much better. Colder second half of the month. I like the negative wpo and the anomolous ridge there with the polar vortex setting up on our side of the globe. Cross polar flow. Tough to break that ridge that the ensembles are showing once it forms. I don't see any warmth except prior to Cutters and I don't see any sustained cold which lasts two weeks or more. Very up-and-down for December which is by far better than any of the last several Years.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

GFS forecasting a decent heat wave flux as per Dr.Cohen

I'm not throwing this out as a criticism just as a suggestion for we of the weak minds here.

Sometimes when the more knowledgeable on the board make comments like this you might want to add afterward something like, "and this is a positive sign for cold and snow", or "this sucks for cold and snow".

I honestly have no idea half the time.

[algae888]

I don't know if anyone has noticed but the models are slowly losing the intense cutter 4 mid too late next week. The gfs now takes the energy over the southwest and brings it up the coast for Monday night and Tuesday. Verbatim it is rain however it usually doesn't handle cold air damming very well at this long lead-time. Something to keep an eye on. The push of Arctic air is now a strong cold front. Considering the teles one would expect a Progressive pattern. This also should make any warm up very brief.

[amugs]

Cp we like keeping you all in your places so we can laugh at such!! Riding the short bus of weather?
Only kidding my man!

Now look at this ny the euro ens run as of 12z. Delayed run by about 2 hours but wowza imho a huge northern pac block , negative wpo and epo which will allow a cross polar flow into the conus and bleed east. Canada goes into the freezer big time as does the western US and it slides east.
Major snowpack coming for Can, western usa northern tier and midwest. all good news.

[amugs]

This is a very nice look - NPAC block could be our first real accumulating snow threat for the entire region - not a secs 4"plus but maybe a 2" plus for NYC Metro and BETTER N & W - when the hell was the last time this was said??

Negative WPO big time over western Aleutians and Negative EPO and Nuetral PNA that forms a horse shoe over the top into the AO and East based block - east of greenland - buckles the jet a bit more on the Atlantic side.

[amugs]

Jim Connolly from OKX with an interesting long term today:

THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A SOLELY BLENDED   APPROACH, AS THIS WOULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVERY DAY AND   SMOOTH OUT THE TEMPERATURES EXTREMES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS, THE 12Z   ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS WAS THEREFORE   CLOSELY FOLLOWED, BUT NOT BLINDLY, AS THE GENERAL PATTERN WAS   SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS.     THE FIRST SYSTEM IS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE   SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TIMING ON THIS IS TUESDAY AND   TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE LOW ACTUALLY   REACHES THE AREA OR STAYS TO THE SOUTH, OR IF THE LOW TRACKS TO THE   EAST AND WARM SLOTS THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS   THEREFORE LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT.     AN ARCTIC FRONT AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED LOW THEN COME THROUGH BY THE   END OF THE WEEK. AGAIN, THE 12Z GFS WAS USED WHICH HAS A TIMING OF   WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.     BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH   THE ARCTIC FRONT PERHAPS PRESENTING A FLASH FREEZE THREAT.  

[Frank_Wx]

Yea...not a whole lot to report today. The period after the 9th continues to look favorable for cold and possible snow.

[jrollins628]

Yea...not a whole lot to report today. The period after the 9th continues to look favorable for cold and possible snow.

I think that is a good thing at least the models are becoming consistent

[sroc4]

Although I am still very hesitant to jump on any bandwagon that involves LR (10-14days out), there's this from Dr. Judah Cohan:  Look at the west coast. Fingers crossed


Judah Cohen
‏@judah47
Party like its 2014! Latest GFS forecast of hemispheric atmospheric circulation reminiscent of #polarvortex winter of 2013/14, #cold East US


Need to get to DEc 7-9th.  That is when hyped Aleutian poleward ridge (-WPO) is progged to be in full bloom.  The cold is the first and most important ingredient to get the white gold.  Poleward blocking will trigger the southward movement of the cold air masses.

[Frank_Wx]

Doc...Notice how strong that Aleutian Ridge is on the OPs. If they still show that say by Sunday, I'll become very excited for a solid 10 days of winter after the 9th.

[rb924119]

Can't really elaborate right now because my free time is dwindling tonight, but I'm back on my normal internet connection and my video from yesterday uploaded in less than a minute ahaha please visit the link below to watch it. Also, please note that this video was tailored to a less knowledgeable audience, which is why I don't go as in depth and it's shorter. If I can, I'll post an update/more detailed analysis of my thoughts. Also becoming interested in a possible overrunning event for Tuesday-Wednesday. Questions, comments, concerns, let me know!!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYZ3AzUVdMa0Y1TFk

[sroc4]

Doc...Notice how strong that Aleutian Ridge is on the OPs. If they still show that say by Sunday, I'll become very excited for a solid 10 days of winter after the 9th.

Agreed Frank. It really is impressive. I want to get excited but I have to see that ridge go up first.

[amugs]

Although I am still very hesitant to jump on any bandwagon that involves LR (10-14days out), there's this from Dr. Judah Cohan:  Look at the west coast. Fingers crossed


Judah Cohen
‏@judah47
Party like its 2014! Latest GFS forecast of hemispheric atmospheric circulation reminiscent of #polarvortex winter of 2013/14, #cold East US


Need to get to DEc 7-9th.  That is when hyped Aleutian poleward ridge (-WPO) is progged to be in full bloom.  The cold is the first and most important ingredient to get the white gold.  Poleward blocking will trigger the southward movement of the cold air masses.

I tweeted him and asked what he sees besides this map - he said he can't get into the specs but the warm arctic and siberian high and the pac AAM is going N
Fingers and toes crossed alike my man

[Isotherm]

Although I am still very hesitant to jump on any bandwagon that involves LR (10-14days out), there's this from Dr. Judah Cohan:  Look at the west coast. Fingers crossed


Judah Cohen
‏@judah47
Party like its 2014! Latest GFS forecast of hemispheric atmospheric circulation reminiscent of #polarvortex winter of 2013/14, #cold East US


Need to get to DEc 7-9th.  That is when hyped Aleutian poleward ridge (-WPO) is progged to be in full bloom.  The cold is the first and most important ingredient to get the white gold.  Poleward blocking will trigger the southward movement of the cold air masses.

To be honest Scott, over recent years, I've noticed a tendency with Dr. Cohen which, personally, has resulted in some loss of respect in terms of forecasting prowess. I respect him, but I think sometimes there can be a bit of a myopic focus on the October snow indicators. But that aside, I find myself on an island of negativity these days as I'm not all that excited about the pattern. Yes, the wave breaking is real and we'll see the poleward ridge, but what will be the mechanism to maintain it (there won't be IMO)? Contemporaneously, what will the NAM / NAO look like? Everything I see points to relatively weak wave driving in terms of the tropospheric precursor patterns and consequently a rapidly intensifying stratospheric vortex. My winter outlook primary favorable period was dec into potentially early jan, but I'm still not seeing signs of sustained -AO/NAO which will be deleterious in this Pacific regime.

[Frank_Wx]

Agree Tom. Pattern after the 9th is not sustainable. At least not as I see it now.

[Frank_Wx]

This image I saw on Twitter just ruined my evening. Mean zonal winds - across all levels of the Stratosphere - are forecasted by the ECM to stay westerly and rapidly intensify by mid month. This will strengthen the Strat PV, keep the AO positive, and is the main reason why I think January will be above normal.

[Frank_Wx]

Can't really elaborate right now because my free time is dwindling tonight, but I'm back on my normal internet connection and my video from yesterday uploaded in less than a minute ahaha please visit the link below to watch it. Also, please note that this video was tailored to a less knowledgeable audience, which is why I don't go as in depth and it's shorter. If I can, I'll post an update/more detailed analysis of my thoughts. Also becoming interested in a possible overrunning event for Tuesday-Wednesday. Questions, comments, concerns, let me know!!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYZ3AzUVdMa0Y1TFk

Anyone else having trouble viewing Ray's video?

[amugs]

Can't really elaborate right now because my free time is dwindling tonight, but I'm back on my normal internet connection and my video from yesterday uploaded in less than a minute ahaha please visit the link below to watch it. Also, please note that this video was tailored to a less knowledgeable audience, which is why I don't go as in depth and it's shorter. If I can, I'll post an update/more detailed analysis of my thoughts. Also becoming interested in a possible overrunning event for Tuesday-Wednesday. Questions, comments, concerns, let me know!!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYZ3AzUVdMa0Y1TFk

Anyone else having trouble viewing Ray's video?

No click on the link and watch.

@Ray love the video great job, fingers crossed - another accumulating snow for interior sections.

[amugs]

GFS late to the cold party!!
12z

latest 18z

0z????coleder, hold serve?

[Frank_Wx]

EURO Weeklies:





December 9th - 15th is pretty impressive. There is no denying that. Look at the magnitude of the Aleutian/Nina ridge in the western Arctic. There is also considerable, more then I expected, east-based blocking. I would be pretty disappointed if this period did not deliver a snow event for our area. For December, this is pretty damn good. We'll hope guidance continues to show this early next week.





Then by mid to late month, the pattern turns ugly according to the Weeklies. Raging +EPO which could turn the power back on for the Pacific Jet. Blocking dissipates and warmth overtakes the country as a result. Unfortunately, this pattern has merit and could actually become more anomalous by January but we'll cross that road when the time comes. 200CHI anomalies show convection developing in unfavorable regions of the Tropical Pacific too by the middle of the month. This would likely kick the Aleutian ridge out and replace it with a trough.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS late to the cold party!!
12z

latest 18z

0z????coleder, hold serve?

Notice the coldest anomalies are in the west and central CONUS then modify by the time it hits the east coast. It will undoubtedly get cold, but we need to see a jet stream pattern conducive for developing low pressure systems.

[sroc4]

Although I am still very hesitant to jump on any bandwagon that involves LR (10-14days out), there's this from Dr. Judah Cohan:  Look at the west coast. Fingers crossed


Judah Cohen
‏@judah47
Party like its 2014! Latest GFS forecast of hemispheric atmospheric circulation reminiscent of #polarvortex winter of 2013/14, #cold East US


Need to get to DEc 7-9th.  That is when hyped Aleutian poleward ridge (-WPO) is progged to be in full bloom.  The cold is the first and most important ingredient to get the white gold.  Poleward blocking will trigger the southward movement of the cold air masses.

To be honest Scott, over recent years, I've noticed a tendency with Dr. Cohen which, personally, has resulted in some loss of respect in terms of forecasting prowess. I respect him, but I think sometimes there can be a bit of a myopic focus on the October snow indicators. But that aside, I find myself on an island of negativity these days as I'm not all that excited about the pattern. Yes, the wave breaking is real and we'll see the poleward ridge, but what will be the mechanism to maintain it (there won't be IMO)? Contemporaneously, what will the NAM / NAO look like? Everything I see points to relatively weak wave driving in terms of the tropospheric precursor patterns and consequently a rapidly intensifying stratospheric vortex. My winter outlook primary favorable period was dec into potentially early jan, but I'm still not seeing signs of sustained -AO/NAO which will be deleterious in this Pacific regime.

I can understand what your saying Tom regarding Dr. Cohan.  We all have our biasis I suppose; after all we are human.  I have noticed that about many of the prominent mets in this business.  Take JB for example.  There is no denying the fact that the man is good at what he does when looking at LR forecasting, but there is also no denying the fact that he has his known biasis.    

Regarding this island of negativity you refer to you have definitely not been on this island alone.  I too have been either quiet because I have not believed the hype, (because mom always taught me if you have nothing nice to say don't say anything) or I myself in my thoughts/write ups through Nov have not been optimistic about the pattern as a whole either.  My thoughts and ideas have def echoed your ideas regarding the big picture hence the precluding statement: I am still very hesitant to jump on any bandwagon that involves LR (10-14days out).  

I did have a question regarding the poleward Aleutian ridging.  The result of this blocking feature to the overall pattern, depending on how weak or strong, short lived or longer lived, I understand completely.  However, it has been unclear to me exactly why, what seemingly was out of nowhere, this ridge feauture will go up when prev the broad trough in this location has dominated for much of the recent past.  In your post a couple of days ago you mention the forcing mechanisms for this riding being related to "retracted jet/low GWO, Rossby wave trains via -VP".  Can you define GWO, and VP is?  And can you expand on why a low GWO helps to force the ridging, and why a -VP enhances the Rossby wave trains?

[amugs]

GFS late to the cold party!!
12z

latest 18z

0z????coleder, hold serve?

Notice the coldest anomalies are in the west and central CONUS then modify by the time it hits the east coast. It will undoubtedly get cold, but we need to see a jet stream pattern conducive for developing low pressure systems.

Of course they are going to modify they are traveling some 2000 plus miles over bare ground and teh cold air source is being dumped over Alaska and funnelled through the passageway developed over Al and N CAN. BUT i'll take it. Better than what we have and my point being the GFS is late or coming around to teh cold look regime about to set up albeit transient but for the time being it is UNLIKE the Dec we have around here for some time.

[dkodgis]

Things do look interesting by the middle to end of next week regarding moisture and cold, maybe enough for snow. But help a senior citizen out. Did I read here or elsewhere 60's may come back after that?

[amugs]

Look at how much colder this is trending

[algae888]

Things do look interesting by the middle to end of next week regarding moisture and cold, maybe enough for snow. But help a senior citizen out.  Did I read here or elsewhere 60's may come back after that?

there is no sign of any warmth from today until dec 16th at the earliest. any pos dep. will be slight. also day 10-15 eps looks to bring back the -nao and is slow with breaking down the Aleution ridge. should be a fun few weeks. if we don't snow it will at least feel like December.

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