Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Frank_Wx]

Between this week and next, there's lots of cold weather coming but I'm having trouble finding a snowstorm in this pattern.The threat I've been speaking about on the 12th is fading but I remain intrigued. The sad news is this could go to waste because it should warm up again by the 20th through Christmas and New Years. So if we don't take advantage of the cold these next 10 to 13 days then we may not see snow until next month at some point, and I'm not even thrilled about January at this moment

[jmanley32]

High temps on December 15th

isn't that also when u said u feel there may be a storm? Wow cold for highs.

[Frank_Wx]

Some good news. The MJO is expected to remain in the COD instead of amplifying into phase 2. Phase 2 during La Nina years with December wavelengths signal a warm pattern for the east coast. By staying in the circle of death (the inner circle), it leaves one to believe if the cold pattern could persist beyond the 18th. We'll see! Thinking no right now.

[amugs]

[Frank_Wx]

La Nina dead?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

I still see La Nina-like traits to the pattern, so I am not ready to say it is, but it will be dead by the middle of this winter.

[Snow88]

Watch this weekend's wave

0z GFS went more south with it and 0z CMC also

[Snow88]

Even some snow for the mid atlantic on the GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016120700&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=912

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Weather channel app has me for 6-10 inches on the 17th. I won't hold my breath waiting but just wondering if anyone sees any kind of potential in that time period. It's ten days away I realize.

[sroc4]

Weather channel app has me for 6-10 inches on the 17th. I won't hold my breath waiting but just wondering if anyone sees any kind of potential in that time period. It's ten days away I realize.

I see two systems to watch before that time frame CP. The one for the Monday time frame is actually intriguing me a little for the coastal plain this time around. It looks likely that you guys to the N and W will likely see a similar type event has the past two +/- an inch or two, but there may, just may, be enough cold around to allow me to see my first flakes out here on the Island. Well see as we get closer. Still details to be ironed out as the GFS and Euro are 12-18hrs apart on the timing of the energy and precip.

Second chance develops a low associated with weak S stream energy just off the NC coast on late Wed Thursday then phases with the N branch Thursday but off shore. Track is OTS from there. The way 500mb sets up now this is the most likely scenario, However if the N energy is a tad faster, or the S energy a tad slower late week next week could be interesting. Regardless the late week chance could set us up for an interesting set up with a 50/50 LP block and the potential for a more significant system to come up the coast around the time frame you are talking about CP.

Like you said however, a long way off. And with still significant differences in the modeling for the first system things will change. But for the first time for us I-95 coastal snow weenies I see a ray of hope over the next 10days.

[Frank_Wx]

Ensembles and OP's are in agreement the 12th through 18th (maybe 20th) will bring our coldest weather of the season. The PV is in south-central Canada due to a cut-off anomalous WPO ridge. There is a gradient flow across the U.S. Any wave that tracks toward our area will be along the baroclinic zone, or there could be Miller B storms to track. Either way, we need something to pop in this time frame to capitalize off the cold. There is a system on the 12th I've been talking about and still like for minor snow accumulations, then maybe another 1 or 2 between the 14th and 18th.

EPS



GEFS

[jake732]

http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/12/cold-weather.html

Just my thoughts

[Snow88]

Very wintry GFS run

[Snow88]

Snowstorm for many on Sunday on the CMC

[sroc4]

Snowstorm for many on Sunday on the CMC

Yes GFS looked much better for the coast at 12z and CMC is down right giggidy worthy.  Its still a day or two to early to get too excited but like I said this morning this time frame, and late next week too, is def interesting for the coastal plain as well as N&W

[algae888]

Bring the cold and the snow will come. We have a very fast flow so there will be a hard time for storms to strengthen before they hit the East Coast. Give me a pac and Arctic that delivers the cold you can keep the North Atlantic. Nao is way overrated as we have seen in the last several winters. We can always get the transit block and the 50-50 low. Fun times ahead fellas

[amugs]

Coming to fruition peeps - let it come - zonal flow but gradient ala 93-94 - said this a few times. Let eth snows build in the OH river valley and of course teh nortern tier - 40N is fine to set this up. Also looks to be cold through xmass - WPO doing soem dirty work here



HOLY MOTHER OF COLD FOR US HERE!!

[jrollins628]

Bring the cold and the snow will come. We have a very fast flow so there will be a hard time for storms to strengthen before they hit the East Coast. Give me a pac and Arctic that delivers the cold you can keep the North Atlantic. Nao is way overrated as we have seen in the last several winters. We can always get the transit block and the 50-50 low. Fun times ahead fellas

Yes the snow will come,  i believe i'm hearing that there are more chances so if its not the weekend maybe next week with snow?

[sroc4]

Differences for Monday:

12z euro has the strongest energy into the heartland come late Sunday which raises heights out ahead of it...compared to GFS and CMC which is weaker and more zonal.





Results at the surface are a strong LP cutting to the west on the euro vs a weaker LP or waves of LP developing along the frontal boundary a very nice set up for an overrunning event that could benefit us all.




 

One thing I will say is if the set up works out like what the CMC and GFS have there will likely be localized enhanced snow totals somewhere along the I-95corridor due to baroclinically driven vertical motion the results of which likely will not be picked up on by the global models in detail and even some of the hi res short range models may have a tough time until the system is upon us.  Good things today IMO.  Euro over night was close to GFS and CMC today.  Im having a hard time believing the cutter into the GL soln right now by the euro given the strength of the cold air to te N and its push.  If anything a trend towards the frontal boundary even further south is more likely IMO than the cutter idea.   The energy that will be this system does not come onshore until about Friday eve into Saturday so we still have some time to sort things out.

[skinsfan1177]

Differences for Monday:

12z euro has the strongest energy into the heartland come late Sunday which raises heights out ahead of it...compared to GFS and CMC which is weaker and more zonal.





Results at the surface are a strong LP cutting to the west on the euro vs a weaker LP or waves of LP developing along the frontal boundary a very nice set up for an overrunning event that could benefit us all.




 

One thing I will say is if the set up works out like what the CMC and GFS have there will likely be localized enhanced snow totals somewhere along the I-95corridor due to baroclinically driven vertical motion the results of which likely will not be picked up on by the global models in detail and even some of the hi res short range models may have a tough time until the system is upon us.  Good things today IMO.  Euro over night was close to GFS and CMC today.  Im having a hard time believing the cutter into the GL soln right now by the euro given the strength of the cold air to te N and its push.  If anything a trend towards the frontal boundary even further south is more likely IMO than the cutter idea.   The energy that will be this system does not come onshore until about Friday eve into Saturday so we still have some time to sort things out.

Sroc correct me if I'm wrong doesn't the Euro favor a strong northern stream bias?

[sroc4]

Skins Im not totally sure about that. I do know it has a bias of holding back energy in the west.

[amugs]

Scott beat me to it my man - EURO seems to be amplifying all systems lately - another day or two as yuo said before I bite but the set looks to be more west to NNE IMO

Talk about cold again - wow keeps getting colder next week


This would rival teh great 1983 arctic outbreak - I remember this well as a 14 year old!

[amugs]

NICE EYE CANDY!!!

[sroc4]

EPS in the Op camp with primary to the west.

[skinsfan1177]

EPS in the  Op camp with primary to the west.  

Not good for us

[Guest]

NICE EYE CANDY!!!

.....not for the coast.

[Guest]

EPS in the  Op camp with primary to the west.  

i' will assume all storms cut from now on until one doesn't.  Then it will be suppressed because it's too cold.

[sroc4]

EPS in the  Op camp with primary to the west.  

i' will assume all storms cut from now on until one doesn't.  Then it will be suppressed because it's too cold.

LOL Jim-ban-eezer scrooge

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