Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Guest]

EPS in the  Op camp with primary to the west.  

i' will assume all storms cut from now on until one doesn't.  Then it will be suppressed because it's too cold.

[sroc4]

EPS in the  Op camp with primary to the west.  

i' will assume all storms cut from now on until one doesn't.  Then it will be suppressed because it's too cold.

LOL Jim-ban-eezer scrooge

[jmanley32]

Do not shoot me for saying this but I really hope theres no storm sunday or monday. anyway we can make it tuesday?  I have my social work licensing exam and between getting there and concentration on a 4-6 hr exam I would rather not have the white gold on my mind, at least theres no windows though lol. well except when I go to take a break....

[Math23x7]

Next week has the outside chance of featuring lows in the teens in NYC, something that has happened only once in the last five Decembers.

And yes, I see the pattern in the next week or so looking like cutters and cold weather, I'll call it coldcuts.

Of course, we like the cold but can it translate to snow. In December 1989, it did not.

That being said, I checked the 6-10 day analogs from CPC and three of the 10 dates caught my attention:

1) November 28th, 1995, right when the first measurable snowfall of the 1995-96 season for the coast took place.

2) December 24th, 1998, when NYC and points south and east saw several inches of snow to get a White Christmas.

3) December 12th, 2009. A week before areas south and east of NYC saw a "Godzilla" (and in isolated places a "Roidzilla").

This time next week could feature some snow here, but I have my doubts at this point to be honest.

[Snow88]

EPS in the  Op camp with primary to the west.  

Not good for us

Ehh the EPS and Euro have been too amped happy lately

[Snow88]

GFS is way different than the Euro for Monday

[amugs]

GEFS BARKING ARCTIC COLD!!

[Snow88]

La Nina dead?

[algae888]

It's game on Sunday night through Monday night as the euro has caved to the GFS solution. Botj models are close to warning level snow for most of the area. We should start a thread on this one soon. Get ready for the December to remember

[SoulSingMG]

Hi guys & gals! happy winter!

00Z EURO has caved to GFS/CMC and wallops NYC Metro with her first advisory/warning level snowfall of the season. Let's see if this holds.

[skinsfan1177]

It's game on Sunday night through Monday night as the euro has caved to the GFS solution. Botj models are close to warning level snow for most of the area. We should start a thread on this one soon. Get ready for the December to remember

Hoping to read a write up on this possible storm

[algae888]

I'm hearing the Euro monthly flipped cold for January and February and snowy

[algae888]

Wow what an active pattern on all the models. I think it was mugs who refer to 93/94 Winter. We're going to see snow with at least one of these storms in the next two weeks with all the cold air around

[algae888]

I don't even know which system to focus on as there seems to be one every other day. I guess we'll take it one at a time

[amugs]

I'm hearing  the Euro monthly flipped cold for January and February and snowy

EURO saying -EPO, WPO and AO - WOW - did a 180 - seeing the massive poleward extension of that ridge from the hangover Nino

GEFS saying what warm up - said before that WPO is teh driver and will be and it will make the EPO go N.
NAO and AO eehh but we do not need those two - we can take teh AO when it comes and teh NAO but right now we have a great look going forward - pattern change to warm AN cancel



AND..........from my pro met friend who has done studies on cold - he worked in Barrow Alaska for Gods sake said that when we get an arctic air intrusion the entrenches itself over a longer period of time and then we get snow pack and then another arctic intrusion and more snow it is difficult to erode such a pattern - he said the studies he did date back to the 1940's and such patterns last on approximation for 3 - 6/7 weeks sometimes reloading after a relaxation period when such set up. Said 1940-41, 47-48, 60-61, 76-77, 77-78 are examples that pop off his head.

[amugs]

EPO IS BACK

[algae888]

EPO IS BACK

Mugs yes. And they were many people calling for the big warm up after the 15th of December and didn't see how cold this cold shot will be. Actually the extreme cold happens right around the 15th onward and like what you said it's going to be hard to break this pattern. My thinking all along was a warm artic so the cold air has to go somewhere it was on the other side of the pole in November and it's here now for how long we shall see. It's hard to break these big ridges down once they form.

[algae888]

The big question is not that December will average below normal but by how much. Can it rival  February 14. Or was in 13?.

[jmanley32]

Anyone have euro msps and snow msps due to financial issues I no longer have a euro site.

[amugs]

The big question is not that December will average below normal but by how much. Can it rival  February 14. Or was in 13?.

It was Feb 2015 and yes to your above post . I was one call for a cold December and put out me own forecast in my weather blog.
Now for EPS mean temps

[amugs]

Hours 135 ish to 144ish have light snow over running the entire area.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The big question is not that December will average below normal but by how much. Can it rival  February 14. Or was in 13?.

It was Feb 2015 and yes to your above post . I was one call for a cold December and put out me own forecast in my weather blog.
Now for EPS mean temps

it won't come anywhere close to Feb 2015's departure from normal.

We're 8 days into the month and still above normal by 3 degrees. Let's shoot for normal temperatures for the first time in 18 months and I'll be happy. I think it's been so warm for so long people are starting to forget what normal is.

[algae888]

The big question is not that December will average below normal but by how much. Can it rival  February 14. Or was in 13?.

It was Feb 2015 and yes to your above post . I was one call for a cold December and put out me own forecast in my weather blog.
Now for EPS mean temps

it won't come anywhere close to Feb 2015's departure from normal.

We're 8 days into the month and still above normal by 3 degrees. Let's shoot for normal temperatures for the first time in 18 months and I'll be happy. I think it's been so warm for so long people are starting to forget what normal is.

Cp we will be -3 in a week and if the EPO stays negative the only other month to rival this month would be February 2015. Would love to know when was the last month we were minus 2 in the last 5 years

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The big question is not that December will average below normal but by how much. Can it rival  February 14. Or was in 13?.

It was Feb 2015 and yes to your above post . I was one call for a cold December and put out me own forecast in my weather blog.
Now for EPS mean temps

it won't come anywhere close to Feb 2015's departure from normal.

We're 8 days into the month and still above normal by 3 degrees. Let's shoot for normal temperatures for the first time in 18 months and I'll be happy. I think it's been so warm for so long people are starting to forget what normal is.

Cp we will be -3 in a week and if the EPO stays negative the only other month to rival this month would be February 2015. Would love to know when was the last month we were minus 2 in the last 5 years

Al you have to remember February 2015 the average temperature in Central Park was 23.9 which was 11.4 degrees below the inflated 1981-2010 normal. This December won't come anywhere near either number IMO, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

[algae888]

Yes i know we will not end up close to feb 2015. However I think -3 looks pretty good at the moment and maybe -5 if the EPO can deliver. There really isn't a month to compare this December to over the last several years if guidance is correct. just look at today's Euro, we're looking at negative 20 to 25 temperature departures the end of next week

[amugs]

^^ I was not comparing this month to teh ice age month of 2015 February JUSt answering a question as to what month was below like thi sone - comparatively speaking it is Feb 2015 - the cold departures this weeks cold snap Wed - Saturday are to be -15 to -20 from normal. That plus 3 will be wiped out greatly.

[amugs]

Yes i know we will not end up close to feb 2015. However I think -3 looks pretty good at the moment and maybe -5 if the EPO can deliver. There really isn't a month to compare this December to over the last several years if guidance is correct. just look at today's Euro, we're looking at negative 20 to 25 temperature departures the end of next week

Al is it me or we keep getting colder? The EPO went from slight N middle of teh week to now -3 SD

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