Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Frank_Wx]

This graphic suggests WAF may be on the increase around New Years. If this is true, it may set up a precursor pattern in the Troposphere that leads to a possible SSWE sometime the first half of January. Long way to go, but at least it's cool to see.

[Frank_Wx]

Christmas Day

[Math23x7]

NJ Strong get together at Jenkinson's mid-late December anyone? We can sit outside where it will feel as warm as it did on June 14th, 2015.

[HectorO]

Well there goes the month of January. Late December and we're already talking about February because Jan could be a complete bust.

[amugs]

This needs to come to fruition for us, not buying all the BUST talk for winter, sorry.

[Frank_Wx]

To be fair, no one here cancelled winter. It's just acknowledging that an unfavorable pattern between Christmas and New Years is likely.

[dkodgis]

Mugs did get to ice skate so the winter has not been "that" bad so far.

[sroc4]

This needs to come to fruition for us, not buying all the BUST talk for winter, sorry.

With all due respect Mugs this isnt exactly a great look. Maybe more like a less crappy to mediocre at best look. I mean the EPO goes from strong positive to less positive with a trend toward neutral in the LR. Better than the +4 but nothing to write home about. With this he exception of a single run 4-5 runs ago and the most run where it went a smidge below 0 the EPO remains positive here.  

All that said I for one am not canceling winter by a long shot. Like Frank said though I don't remember anyone, with the exception of James(sorry paison), calling this winter a bust. However, There is no denying an unfavorable setup on the horizon that looks to last at least a couple of weeks. Beyond that is still speculation.

[Frank_Wx]

Ensembles are hinting that the 23rd to 25th period could produce another snow event for the area, but the interior and New England is favored of course. Hey, as long as the PAC s/w doesn't amplify too much and we can keep the SE Ridge muted, then we have a fighting chance. Beyond that, both suites show the SE Ridge returning as the +EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern takes hold.

[HectorO]

Ensembles are hinting that the 23rd to 25th period could produce another snow event for the area, but the interior and New England is favored of course. Hey, as long as the PAC s/w doesn't amplify too much and we can keep the SE Ridge muted, then we have a fighting chance. Beyond that, both suites show the SE Ridge returning as the +EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern takes hold.

I'm not greedy, just ask for some chilly temps that's all.

[algae888]

Ensembles are hinting that the 23rd to 25th period could produce another snow event for the area, but the interior and New England is favored of course. Hey, as long as the PAC s/w doesn't amplify too much and we can keep the SE Ridge muted, then we have a fighting chance. Beyond that, both suites show the SE Ridge returning as the +EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern takes hold.

Yes cmc shows a nice hit for the interior on Thursday. Also there will be plenty of cold air out west Northward through Canada and Alaska so once the pattern flips it will not take very long for us to get below normal imo.

[chief7]

teleconnections all look like crap at least the big three AO + NAO neutral and the PNA-

[Frank_Wx]

teleconnections all look like crap at least the big three AO + NAO neutral and the PNA-

Yup......

[algae888]

Euro ensambles are trying to build back the Aleutian Ridge Poleward again in the day 11 to 15. Also today's Euro operational has another arctic front coming through Christmas morning looks as cold if not colder than this past arctic outbreak. As long as we can get that ridge to rebuild there will be plenty of cold air close by, so any storm cutting beneath us or even a weak storm cutting to our West has the potential for snow. big difference from last year that we have a cold source.

[algae888]

The Canadian ensembles are similar to the euro with the poleward Aleutian Ridge the GFS is flattered with the same feature. However looks like no help on the Atlantic side. Two things seem certain they'll be plenty of cold air in Northwest Canada which should provide Arctic outbreaks periodically in our area and a very active pattern. It should be a lot of fun this winter tracking all these systems. not all going to to be in our favor but we should do pretty well overall. Get the cold here and the snow will come. Thank God El Nino is gone.

[Isotherm]

Stratospheric 10hpa temperatures should reach record lows at 90N in the next week, and near record lows at 60-90N around Christmas. The tropospheric regime is reflective of that w/ a +5 standard deviation AO next week. Accumulating snow (of the 3"+ variety) at the coast will be nothing short of a Christmas miracle over the next week to 10 days.



If this year's vortex follows a progression congruous with prior similar historical cases, it will remain potent through all of January, with a weakening trend at the end of the month, followed by potential SSW attempt and/or significant weakening in the first half of February. That would induce tropospheric alterations such that Feb 5/10-end of winter delivers the most NAO / AO domain blocking of the season. This is all "a priori" of course, and we could very well have a strong vortex through March. However, historically, similar cases will yield at least a weakening in February, and thus probably our highest probability of protracted -AO/NAO is Feb/Mar.

[Isotherm]

This needs to come to fruition for us, not buying all the BUST talk for winter, sorry.

With all due respect Mugs this isnt exactly a great look. Maybe more like a less crappy to mediocre at best look. I mean the EPO goes from strong positive to less positive with a trend toward neutral in the LR. Better than the +4 but nothing to write home about. With this he exception of a single run 4-5 runs ago and the most run where it went a smidge below 0 the EPO remains positive here.  

All that said I for one am not canceling winter by a long shot. Like Frank said though I don't remember anyone, with the exception of James(sorry paison), calling this winter a bust. However, There is no denying an unfavorable setup on the horizon that looks to last at least a couple of weeks. Beyond that is still speculation.

Agree Scott. I went warmer than normal for both Jan/Feb in my outlook, but I think our best opportunity for a NAO/AO protracted shake-up/reversal might be February (ironically, the month everyone largely agreed for warmer than normal). I'm still sticking with warmer than normal, but if there is a -AO/NAO month, February has the best chance. +5 AO's near Christmas tend to strongly correlate to the January state, so I'd be willing to bet January finishes +NAO/AO on the mean.

Still, I think we'll get some windows in Jan with occasional poleward ridging.

[sroc4]

This needs to come to fruition for us, not buying all the BUST talk for winter, sorry.

With all due respect Mugs this isnt exactly a great look. Maybe more like a less crappy to mediocre at best look. I mean the EPO goes from strong positive to less positive with a trend toward neutral in the LR. Better than the +4 but nothing to write home about. With this he exception of a single run 4-5 runs ago and the most run where it went a smidge below 0 the EPO remains positive here.  

All that said I for one am not canceling winter by a long shot. Like Frank said though I don't remember anyone, with the exception of James(sorry paison), calling this winter a bust. However, There is no denying an unfavorable setup on the horizon that looks to last at least a couple of weeks. Beyond that is still speculation.

Agree Scott. I went warmer than normal for both Jan/Feb in my outlook, but I think our best opportunity for a NAO/AO protracted shake-up/reversal might be February (ironically, the month everyone largely agreed for warmer than normal). I'm still sticking with warmer than normal, but if there is a -AO/NAO month, February has the best chance. +5 AO's near Christmas tend to strongly correlate to the January state, so I'd be willing to bet January finishes +NAO/AO on the mean.

Still, I think we'll get some windows in Jan with occasional poleward ridging.

I wish you didnt Tom

[rb924119]

Ensembles are hinting that the 23rd to 25th period could produce another snow event for the area, but the interior and New England is favored of course. Hey, as long as the PAC s/w doesn't amplify too much and we can keep the SE Ridge muted, then we have a fighting chance. Beyond that, both suites show the SE Ridge returning as the +EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern takes hold.

Been interested in this period for a while. I think Al or mugsy was speaking about it with me earlier in the week.....haven't paid much attention since this little storm, though haha time to get back into it :p

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The Canadian ensembles are similar to the euro with the poleward Aleutian Ridge the GFS is flattered with the same feature.  However looks like no help on the Atlantic side. Two things seem certain they'll be plenty of cold air in Northwest Canada which should provide Arctic outbreaks periodically in our area and a very active pattern. It should be a lot of fun this winter tracking all these systems.  not all going to to be in our favor but we should do pretty well overall. Get the cold here and the snow will come. Thank God El Nino is gone.

Amen to that!!!!!!

[amugs]

When the cold.front come sthrough here between the jan 4 -6 timefrane. Mercury passes by earth when this happens we have a strong cold front just like tomorrow night/monday. Long-lasting not sure but it is a start.

Also, late Jan through late Feb as per Jim Witt and his terrestrial forecasting with analogs back to 1876 shows Uranus ( no jokes please) is in sextant, 60 degrees with earth's perigee we go in the freezer in the CONUS. 

The 23 -25th time frame is interesting to me even though we don't have the tees for one but Big Momma?

Reading from another poster that is a pro forecaster he sees the MJO going into phase 7,8,1 even though the tees aren't showing it now. He was sharing the Chi charts on this and it is interesting. 

Xmass week looks to be Meh no denying it. Time will tell with this as well. As Al stated abundance of polar air sitting just up to our north to tap with agreat snowpack, glacier to our North and west.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm not sure I can hop onto the tropical forcing / MJO train just yet. I acknowledge the convective wave that will move out of the Indian Ocean and into the west Equatorial Pacific, but where will this ridge set-up in the northern Pacific?

Here is a look at 200 CHI over the next 3 weeks. Subsidence will remain over the Dateline while 120E will experience enhanced precipitation from this tropical wave. This is normally indicative of an MJO in phase 6.



According to the La Nina reanalysis 500mb graphics, an MJO in phase 6 produces a +PNA/-WPO - enough to drive cold air into the east.



However, the 500mb pattern Ensembles are suggesting will happen looks more like an phase 6 MJO with neutral ENSO conditions. Here is the 500mb reanalysis depiction in that scenario.



Then here is your EPS for late December...



The Pacific pattern between the two graphics is strikingly similar, but they're way off on the Atlantic side and that could be because of how poor Stratospheric conditions are at the moment.

So, if that's the pattern we're headed toward then consider me cautiously optimistic. Certainly I am not enthused. For the most part, the -PNA will keep the SE ridge in play. And with the NAO/AO the way they're forecasted to be, it's likely not great news for us.

The positive is ridging will return to the WPO region but keep in mind when this happened 10 days ago, the ridge cut off in the western Arctic and displaced arctic air into the CONUS. Models are not showing that at the moment, just a ridge placed too far west that would keep the EPO neutral and the PNA negative. Now, can some of these higher heights enter the EPO region and drive colder air into the eastern CONUS? Absolutely. I would not discount it. I would just place the odds low until we see evidence of it happening.

All in all, I feel the period after Christmas is an unfavorable pattern that will take time to erode. Something much more stronger than a tropical wave entering MJO phase 6 territory. This is where La Nina forcing could have actually played a key role. Wildcard is the Stratosphere. We'll see where it takes us come January.

[amugs]

Gfs saying warm and Euro saying what u talkin about Willis??
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!!
ALSO 23RD AND XMASS time frame thread the needle but we shall see GFS showing g the possibility of more white gold and then fall like

Here are the maps from Venice on the warmth vs colder look

[sroc4]

I'm not sure I can hop onto the tropical forcing / MJO train just yet. I acknowledge the convective wave that will move out of the Indian Ocean and into the west Equatorial Pacific, but where will this ridge set-up in the northern Pacific?

Here is a look at 200 CHI over the next 3 weeks. Subsidence will remain over the Dateline while 120E will experience enhanced precipitation from this tropical wave. This is normally indicative of an MJO in phase 6.



According to the La Nina reanalysis 500mb graphics, an MJO in phase 6 produces a +PNA/-WPO - enough to drive cold air into the east.



However, the 500mb pattern Ensembles are suggesting will happen looks more like an phase 6 MJO with neutral ENSO conditions. Here is the 500mb reanalysis depiction in that scenario.



Then here is your EPS for late December...



The Pacific pattern between the two graphics is strikingly similar, but they're way off on the Atlantic side and that could be because of how poor Stratospheric conditions are at the moment.

So, if that's the pattern we're headed toward then consider me cautiously optimistic. Certainly I am not enthused. For the most part, the -PNA will keep the SE ridge in play. And with the NAO/AO the way they're forecasted to be, it's likely not great news for us.

The positive is ridging will return to the WPO region but keep in mind when this happened 10 days ago, the ridge cut off in the western Arctic and displaced arctic air into the CONUS. Models are not showing that at the moment, just a ridge placed too far west that would keep the EPO neutral and the PNA negative. Now, can some of these higher heights enter the EPO region and drive colder air into the eastern CONUS? Absolutely. I would not discount it. I would just place the odds low until we see evidence of it happening.

All in all, I feel the period after Christmas is an unfavorable pattern that will take time to erode. Something much more stronger than a tropical wave entering MJO phase 6 territory. This is where La Nina forcing could have actually played a key role. Wildcard is the Stratosphere. We'll see where it takes us come January.

Great Post

[skinsfan1177]

Seems to be a lit of uncertainty about the warm up

[sroc4]

Seems to be a lit of uncertainty about the warm up

Yeah Skins.  I noticing a few things in the LR that at first glance look really warm for the east but if you look a little deeper I can see how things aren't quite as bad as they may seem.  I may try and do a write up on it tomorrow if someone else doesn't point it out first.  Particularly the ridging S of the Aleutians and the Ridging over Scananavia and N Europe and their potential partnership beyond day 10. There are a few diff between the GEFS and EPS as one would expect, but both show a decent signal. IF these two ridges trend stronger poleward as we go on in time they may teleconnect with each other leading to another displacement of arctic air into the mid latitudes. As per usual, however, models may be too quick in doing this. Again I will try and do a write up with some details on this with maps to make this more clear.

[rb924119]

Seems to be a lit of uncertainty about the warm up

Yeah Skins.  I noticing a few things in the LR that at first glance look really warm for the east but if you look a little deeper I can see how things aren't quite as bad as they may seem.  I may try and do a write up on it tomorrow if someone else doesn't point it out first.  Particularly the ridging S of the Aleutians and the Ridging over Scananavia and N Europe and their potential partnership beyond day 10.  There are a few diff between the GEFS and EPS as one would expect, but both show a decent signal.  IF these two ridges trend stronger poleward as we go on in time they may teleconnect with each other leading to another displacement of arctic air into the mid latitudes.  As per usual, however, models may be too quick in doing this.  Again I will try and do a write up with some details on this with maps to make this more clear.  

I think I am also going to add to this discussion, maybe later today with a quick video. The progged pattern, mainly as we head close to the New Year and beyond, does not actually scream "warmth" to me for our region.

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