January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Good Morning -

Here is my final update. A powerful storm will develop over the Southeast tomorrow and slowly work it's way north. Fueled by the sub tropical jet stream and southerly flow off the Gulf, the system is expected to contain heavy precipitation. Further, since the 500mb low closes off very early, the east winds will be prominent in enhancing rainfall rates as the fetch increases PWAT values. The good news is since H5 closes off near the Gulf, the system will lose some steam once it reaches our latitude. Some models show the surface low pressure occluding near the Mid-Atlantic and a dry slot overtakes the area. However, the rain the precedes the dry slot is expected to be very heavy.

NJZ012>014-020-026-212130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.A.0001.170123T0700Z-170124T0000Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEW BRUNSWICK, FREEHOLD, SANDY HOOK,
JACKSON, AND LONG BEACH ISLAND
330 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...EAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL COULD BE
DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

I agree with the NWS assessment of the winds. Sustained winds, over a long period of time, between 30-40 mph with gusts over 60 mph. I'm not buying into gusts over 70 mph despite what the 925mb/850mb levels show. IF those type of winds occur, they would be confined to the Jersey Shore or LI. Sustained winds of even 40 mph could still cause damage especially since everything will be saturated. I would take caution if you live in NJ / NYC / LI.





The 00z UKMET last night showed a very impressive storm. Doesn't it look Tropical? Notice how the primary low tracks into Kentucky then ends up transferring energy to the coast where a secondary low forms. The EURO did the same thing. If you remember my scenarios from my previous update, I mentioned this as one of them (scenario #3). I felt there will not be a secondary, but nonetheless, the primary low will track well west of the area to warm the columns. For this reason, I'm not confident in any snowfall for NYC (homepage shows 0% confidence level since yesterday). Even N&W areas will struggle seeing snow in my opinion.



The RGEM agrees with the UKMET and NAM where the heaviest precipitation will fall. This is about 2 inches of rain for the area. I would say 1.50 to 3 inches of rain is a good rain forecast. Again, we're lucky the system closes off early because it takes steam out of it. Then there's an area of subsidence that will form as the low transfers energy to the secondary low.

Lastly, coastal flooding. I'm not familiar with the shore zones but if you're area does not respond well to 3 to 4 foot surge, then take action now. Between the flooding rain, high wind you don't want to put yourself in a desperate situation.

Rain could start as early as Sunday 2-3pm. It will not get heavy until Monday morning around 8-9am. By Tuesday 10am we should be all clear. If you have any other questions please ask me now as I have a wedding to attend later on. No...I'm not the one getting married.

Enjoy your weekend

Best,

Francesco

Thanks for update frank will batten down hatches and hopefully those on coast do so. Rb how could u leave us with a statement not to ask u why ur interested in 12z lol. How would u have any idea what a model suite would show or not is most what I was wondering. I'm thinking maybe u think this is coming in stronger but I dunno please tell us if the merit is there.b

WABC7 is finally this morning hollering about the winds. Still not very loud on the winds but at least something. I suspect folks will get caught flatfooted on this one.

dkodgis wrote:WABC7 is finally this morning hollering about the winds. Still not very loud on the winds but at least something. I suspect folks will get caught flatfooted on this one.

They Definetly not taking it seriously here. I'm heading up to Orange County today what can they expect their. They will be asking me lol

Skins that is because if you go to weather.com or noaa they or calling for like gust over 40 for the jersey shore. That is nothing for us. Not even a worry.

track17 wrote:Skins that is because if you go to weather.com or noaa they or calling for like gust over 40 for the jersey shore. That is nothing for us. Not even a worry.

I disagree it's not the speed it's the duration and their is gust to possibly 60mph. This is a long event. The ground is already soft and saturated. Imo it will not take much to knock trees down. Definetly power outages as well.

Tell me that's not damaging

skinsfan1177 wrote:Tell me that's not damaging

oh tgats white damaging alright jeeze.

[quote="jmanley32"]

skinsfan1177 wrote:Tell me that's not damaging

oh tgats white damaging alright jeeze.[/quot

oh boy that would be damaging I am in that lavender color...not good if that comes to fruition...that would put us over 80 mph...during that time frame

Wow get the ark

Definitely some dangerous winds on the NAM. They don't go too far inland, but parts of immediate Monmouth and Ocean counties do see 40-45mph sustained winds. Would have to believe some gusts over 60mph during that time as well.

Frank Scott RB all the nam models are showing snow accumulations down to Long Island obviously that's not snow probably sleet my question is, is there a cold layer somewhere in the atmosphere with this system causing sleet

Para Nam and 4K Nam has sleet accumulations down to the coast. Few inches.

Mornin peeps,

NAM still onboard for a strong storm and a damaging at one that.
Snow map is mostly sleet and zr for these areas by this map if it can be believed
12K NAM


WINDS - pro met from another board said these winds can easily mix down due to an inversion











GUSTS 50MPH plus NYC Metro area




4K NAM sustained winds - Jersey shore you are in big trouble spread teh word if you have not done so

Looking at some of the thermal profiles 700 MB and 850 MB are near zero or below from the city north and west on the nam with surface temperatures in the thirties so I guess it wouldn't take much to have some sort of freezing precip at some points during the storm especially the further from the coast you are

track17 wrote:Skins that is because if you go to weather.com or noaa they or calling for like gust over 40 for the jersey shore. That is nothing for us. Not even a worry.

You will have as skins said sustained winds (1 minute plus in duration) of 40 plus mph with gusts 60 plus - trop force for 12 hours easily. The constant pounding of these winds will cause power outages hands down. There is nothing to block these since it is an open coastline so some may get exaggerated as well.

Also, some are riding the gfs which has scored absolutely horribly with such storms coming out of the S/SE.
Hi Res models and SR are the way to go here IMHO and NAM Suite RGEM and GEM LAM will tell the story.

Tell your friends to get their generators ready just in case hate to say. All it takes if for one transformer to blow and you can have a domino effect down the line from it (surges) It is how our grid works.

Something doesn't give with that snow map from the NAM, the soundings have a warm nose at 850mb the entire event....this is for Teterboro

algae888 wrote:Looking at some of the thermal profiles 700 MB and 850 MB are near zero or below from the city north and west on the nam with surface temperatures in the thirties so I guess it wouldn't take much to have some sort of freezing precip at some points during the storm especially the further from the coast you are

Absolutely Al - sleet is what I said a few days ago not so much snow - so 35 mph sustained winds and a mix of sleet and rain or just sleet in the N & W areas like west milford, nj lovely !

Dunnzoo wrote:Something doesn't give with that snow map from the NAM, the soundings have a warm nose at 850mb the entire event....this is for Teterboro

Hmmm. ... Teterboro is coastal take a sounding further inland (West Milford Airport, Caldwell)and you should see sleet.

Also it is a good 3* warmer than us at times in these events so we'll see.

Trying to get another sounding north...

Here's Albany.... sleet or zr for some of the event..., but still a warm nose....

Here is Caldwell, going to be close I guess, we will have to see if the warm layer persists in upcoming runs...

Wow look at that convection already