January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

NAM 4km does not even have precip into the area by 11z monday wow.

algae888 wrote:WOW


good chance that's sleet down to the coast

Jeeze, check the wind maps at that time, no way in hell im go out in that sorry Al LOL

So theres still a lot to iron out here, cuz that shows rain but Al your saying its sleet, this may be a nowcast.

These are kts and not gusts and 900mb which is even closer to surface thatn 925mb, coupled with that sleet its go b a ugly evening Monday!! The higest of the winds are actually earlier around NYC but they fluctuate slightly for quite a duration. The strong winds start really rev up on rgem at hr 30 and still whipping at hr 48, thats 18 hrs, not good.

Al I have the choice to stay in eastern CT or head back to NY where do you think the best storm conditions will be in terms of high winds and the chance for frozen? And I do not want to be driving in the height of it so if I leave by say 10 or 11am for a 2 hr drive monday morning should it b ok still?

Extremely preliminary thoughts ripped from my Facebook:

Maps to come tomorrow, but things are progressing as previously mentioned. Expect 1-3", locally up to 4" of rain along and east of the I-95 corridor, with sustained wind speeds likely 35-45mph and gusts to 60mph, possibly even higher. South of I-80 and west of I-95 expect periods of heavy rain and sleet, with minor sleet accumulations. Rainfall will likely be around 1-1.5", with up to two inches of sleet accumulation along the ridgetops in this section. Winds will be lower than the coastal plain, but still likely sustained 20-30mph with gusts to 50mph possible. Finally, north I-80 and west of I-95 expect mainly sleet through the brunt of the storm, with moderate acccumulations expected (2-5"). Sustained winds will likely be 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Bulk of the storm comes in through most of Monday and winds down by Tuesday. I stress all of this is still preliminary, and a much clearer and more precise breakdown will be issued tomorrow with all the details!!!

And to answer you from before, jman, I went home for this storm so I was traveling this afternoon and then have been visiting. I'm on mobile now which is why I've been quiet and not posting images. Much more detailed analyses and subsequent forecast will come out tomorrow.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So theres still a lot to iron out here, cuz that shows rain but Al your saying its sleet, this may be a nowcast.

The yellows are showing rain Jman but the surface temps show below freezing. This is getting really messy.

I can see that, the only thing with this that has been consistent is the wind threat, which on the SR models looks to have even increased a bit that HWW when issued may be higher than 60mph gusts, and I expect inland will be HWW or advisory as all models show winds well inland. For those saying this will be easy peasy I beg to differ but thats okay we all have respect here and can differ in model reading etc. Al I totally see what your saying, sleet is not go be fun, if this becomes a frz event though that would be immensly bad with the wind.

rb924119 wrote:And to answer you from before, jman, I went home for this storm so I was traveling this afternoon and then have been visiting. I'm on mobile now which is why I've been quiet and not posting images. Much more detailed analyses and subsequent forecast will come out tomorrow.

no problem, I think your wind forecast for NYC area is a bit low no? Or is that included in your 60mph gusts.

GreyBeard wrote:Monday morning thru early evening would be the WORST time to travel.I'd stay an extra night at the casino, shoot craps, play blackjack, have a few coctails and enjoy the show.Enjoy

I wish I had the choice to stay another night but my wife wants me home, I will make the call early monday morning.

Dunnzoo wrote:Interesting how the NAM on two sites are so different..

top doesnt include sleet i do not think.

[quote="jmanley32"]

rb924119 wrote:And to answer you from before, jman, I went home for this storm so I was traveling this afternoon and then have been visiting. I'm on mobile now which is why I've been quiet and not posting images. Much more detailed analyses and subsequent forecast will come out tomorrow.

no problem, I think your wind forecast for NYC area is a bit low no? Or is that included in your 60mph gusts.[/quote

That's included. NYC is considered to be the 95 corridor.

AND THE DAMN GFS STARTS THROWING A MONKEY WRENCH IN EVERYTHING. Can't post the maps, but take a look for yourselves lol

Dunnzoo wrote:Jman, that's what I've been saying, soundings on pivotal weather have had hardly any frozen precip. Even if you added in sleet, it wouldn't be that much compared to the tropicaltidbits map...

greybears feels I should not travel back to ny monday morning whare ur though from Eastern ct bout 2 hrs. Depending if traffic or not. Looks like most precip later in the day?

rb924119 wrote:AND THE DAMN GFS STARTS THROWING A MONKEY WRENCH IN EVERYTHING. Can't post the maps, but take a look for yourselves lol

much bigger precip sheild is that what your pointing out?

GreyBeard wrote:Monday morning thru early evening would be the WORST time to travel.I'd stay an extra night at the casino, shoot craps, play blackjack, have a few coctails and enjoy the show.Have some fun and if the casinos loose power,I'm sure they have backup generators.Hell, you probably won't see your buddy for another 20yrs. so live a little.

LOL no wont b 20 yrs, we see each other every year or two, i appreciate your advice but it looks like the real precip starts later in the day so if i leave early it should just be some gusty winds ill be dealing with. My wife wants me home and its wither cancel stay here or go come back, the place is booked tues and my friend is leaving tues and has go to his parents mon, its a sucky situation.