January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Interesting to note..

I live in smithtown, long island. I have been to hauppauge and commack already this morning running errands. No one is getting gas (but me) and the Shop Rite is empty.

I pray that I'm just overly cautious otherwise a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:




We're in trouble

jeeze that's some heavy precip why does nam keep show snow even into nyc. Coupled with the winds visibility will b nill. I think there will b restrictions or closures to the main bridges. Will b bad if u gotta commute to nj from nyc.

The NAM does not even show sleet for NYC let alone snow.

obsessedwithweather wrote:Interesting to note..

I live in smithtown, long island. I have been to hauppauge and commack already this morning running errands. No one is getting gas (but me) and the Shop Rite is empty.

I pray that I'm just overly cautious otherwise a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise.

That's crazy. I rather you be overly cautious too...

I said it yesterday but the amount of news coverage this has gotten (and by amount I mean lack thereof) is borderline journalistic malpractice. If we were getting 4-8" of snow with little wind, a storm that literally can be shoveled and plowed away in a few hours, we'd have wall-to-wall coverage on TV. But a storm that will like do structural damage, knock out power for many, and flood coastal towns is just worthy of mention as part of the 5-day forecast. Smh.

Actually Jon, I didn't see the 0 degree isotherm on those maps. There definitely could be a period of sleet for NYC too tomorrow.

NAM is about 50 miles further east with H5 than 00z which is why north and west see snow. Definitely a colder trend. However, this also bumps precipitation back up instead of decreasing it because it has come so far east again that the mid-level lows aren't tracking over the region, they're going east of it now, which allows CCB banding to move through after the initial advective precipitation. The dry slot misses to the east.

The warm wedge is between 800 and 750. A lot of this is frozen (sleet and freezing rain), but higher elevations of NEPA and SWNY could see some snow. Wont doubt that.

Between the sleet and heavy rain this is going to be one heck of a storm

4"+ for parts of the Jersey Shore and it's still raining...

Holy crap

Question: Why are the NAM 3k and 12k maps showing so much more snow/sleet than the 4k for my area? The 12k is showing 9", the 3k is showing 10" and the 4k is only showing about 2".

rb924119 wrote:NAM is about 50 miles further east with H5 than 00z which is why north and west see snow. Definitely a colder trend. However, this also bumps precipitation back up instead of decreasing it because it has come so far east again that the mid-level lows aren't tracking over the region, they're going east of it now, which allows CCB banding to move through after the initial advective precipitation. The dry slot misses to the east.

Dude what a trend. The mid level lows went from track over NJ (or west of NJ) to off the coast. That's HUGE

obsessedwithweather wrote:
Interesting to note..

I live in smithtown, long island. I have been to hauppauge and commack already this morning running errands. No one is getting gas (but me) and the Shop Rite is empty.

I pray that I'm just overly cautious otherwise a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise.

As I tell my HS students. This is a perfect example of natural selection!!

The higher the resolution model the more detailed precip amounts are.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:NAM is about 50 miles further east with H5 than 00z which is why north and west see snow. Definitely a colder trend. However, this also bumps precipitation back up instead of decreasing it because it has come so far east again that the mid-level lows aren't tracking over the region, they're going east of it now, which allows CCB banding to move through after the initial advective precipitation. The dry slot misses to the east.

Dude what a trend. The mid level lows went from track over NJ (or west of NJ) to off the coast. That's HUGE

Change the snowfall % Frank

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Even if these 8-9" totals into area are sleet not snow, that's still a shit ton of sleet. At about a 3:1 snow to sleet ratio (thanks rb for that answer the other night) I'm still looking at 2-4" of SLEET. Like shoveling gravel.

syosnow94 wrote:obsessedwithweather wrote:
Interesting to note..

I live in smithtown, long island. I have been to hauppauge and commack already this morning running errands. No one is getting gas (but me) and the Shop Rite is empty.

I pray that I'm just overly cautious otherwise a lot of people are going to be in for a surprise.

As I tell my HS students.  This is a perfect example of natural selection!!

You can quote him instead of typing out his post. Just fyi, it's easier

Doesn't seem to effect the winds at all the eastern movement though it was stated they would b lower. Is it bc it's intensity that we don't really see any decrease? I'm mobile now for rest day frank what 4km show for winds? If nam showed what it did can only imagine 4km.

Actually Frank, it went from Pittsburgh, Pa to off the coast if you consider the whole swing of modeling lol with H5 off the coast now, we gotta watch for northwestern snow because of the dynamics back in play, especially if goes further east than it is now. However, that warm nose will likely be pretty tough to overcome, as you mentioned.

syosnow94 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:NAM is about 50 miles further east with H5 than 00z which is why north and west see snow. Definitely a colder trend. However, this also bumps precipitation back up instead of decreasing it because it has come so far east again that the mid-level lows aren't tracking over the region, they're going east of it now, which allows CCB banding to move through after the initial advective precipitation. The dry slot misses to the east.

Dude what a trend. The mid level lows went from track over NJ (or west of NJ) to off the coast. That's HUGE

Change the snowfall % Frank

Still no believer in 1 inch of snow for CPK. Too many warm wedges.

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Even if these 8-9" totals into area are sleet not snow, that's still a shit ton of sleet. At about a 3:1 snow to sleet ratio (thanks rb for that answer the other night) I'm still looking at 2-4" of SLEET. Like shoveling gravel.

Yea was just going to say to divide these maps by 3 or 4 to get an accurate measure of sleet. Still, that's s crap ton of sleet.

Well this storm now has it all: flooding rain, tropical force winds, storm, surge, sleet and snow. NAM "Locusts and plague" map now running.

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't seem to effect the winds at all the eastern movement though it was stated they would b lower. Is it bc it's intensity that we don't really see any decrease? I'm mobile now for rest day frank what 4km show for winds? If nam showed what it did can only imagine 4km.

65mph gusts

rb924119 wrote:Actually Frank, it went from Pittsburgh, Pa to off the coast if you consider the whole swing of modeling lol with H5 off the coast now, we gotta watch for northwestern snow because of the dynamics back in play, especially if goes further east than it is now. However, that warm nose will likely be pretty tough to overcome, as you mentioned.

Yea, your area is a very tough forecast. Don't have time to check soundings for you but I imagine you're getting snow on the NAM verbatim.

So close to an epic blizzard. Incredibly incredibly incredibly incredibly frustrating. Why do these always verify but snow not so much. Mid 30s for this storm. Ef us

billg315 wrote:Well this storm now has it all: flooding rain, tropical force winds, storm, surge, sleet and snow. NAM "Locusts and plague" map now running.

Good day not to work and just track. Yea, I think I'll do that.

I'm setting up my computer now so I can start some in-depth analysis

syosnow94 wrote:So close to an epic blizzard. Incredibly incredibly incredibly incredibly frustrating. Why do these always verify but snow not so much. Mid 30s for this storm. Ef us

This set up was a lot closer to a Godzilla than I originally anticipated for sure.

rb924119 wrote:I'm setting up my computer now so I can start some in-depth analysis

Frank_Wx wrote:

billg315 wrote:Well this storm now has it all: flooding rain, tropical force winds, storm, surge, sleet and snow. NAM "Locusts and plague" map now running.

Good day not to work and just track. Yea, I think I'll do that.

Stock up on the beer and Nutella.